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How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact
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In this article, the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4.Abstract:
This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.read more
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Dissertation
Essays on monetary analysis in Russia
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the results of different aspects of monetary analysis for the Russian economy and apply their tools to the cross-section of emerging market economies, including China and India.
Journal ArticleDOI
Investigating the impact of auto loans on unemployment: The US experience
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The Curious Case of the Missing Defaults
TL;DR: In a recent paper as mentioned in this paper, Reinhart, Reinhart and Trebesch discovered the curious case of missing defaults in emerging market and developing economies, despite the drying up of global capital flows and a sharp fall in commodity prices from 2012 to 2016, sovereign defaults did not spike higher as predicted by the prior two hundred years.
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Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles: How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit
TL;DR: In this paper, the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during 1995-2017 were analyzed and a high degree of synchronization between Lithuania's credit and housing price cycles was found.
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Residential Investment and Recession Predictability
TL;DR: In this article, the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1-2014Q4 was assessed and it was shown that residential investment contains information useful in predicting recessions both in-sample and out-of-sample.
References
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Book
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
TL;DR: In this article, a general theory of the rate of interest was proposed, and the subjective and objective factors of the propensity to consume and the multiplier were considered, as well as the psychological and business incentives to invest.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity
TL;DR: The authors showed that bank deposit contracts can provide allocations superior to those of exchange markets, offering an explanation of how banks subject to runs can attract deposits, and showed that there are circumstances when government provision of deposit insurance can produce superior contracts.
Posted Content
The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework
TL;DR: This article developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint, and the model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature.
BookDOI
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Carmen Reinhart,Kenneth Rogoff +1 more
TL;DR: This Time Is Different as mentioned in this paper presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes.
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Agency Costs, Net Worth, And Business Fluctuations
Ben S. Bernanke,Mark Gertler +1 more
TL;DR: The authors constructs a simple neoclassical model of intrinsic business cycle dynamics in which borrowers' balance sheet positions play an important role and shows that the agency costs of undertaking physical investments are inversely related to the entrepreneur's/borrower's net worth.