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How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact
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In this article, the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4.Abstract:
This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.read more
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Effects of the Northeast China Revitalization Strategy on Regional Economic Growth and Social Development
TL;DR: In this article, an integrated perspective was adopted that is combined with the difference-in-differences method to measure the effects of the strategy on economic growth and social development in Northeast China.
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Our Home in Days Gone By: Housing Markets in Advanced Economies inHistorical Perspective
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Detrending and Financial Cycle Facts Across G7 Countries: Mind a Spurious Medium Term!
TL;DR: The authors showed that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business cycles.
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Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time
TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic factor model with Markov-switching regimes is used to handle a large data set and cope with the nonlinear evolution of the business cycle, and the in-sample results strongly support the capacity of credit variables to estimate the probability of recessions.
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Asian and European Financial Crises Compared
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the origins and evolution of the European and Asian financial crises and conclude that the European crisis countries received more external financial support, despite the fact that they involved more solvency issues while the Asian crises involved more liquidity issues.
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General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
TL;DR: In this article, a general theory of the rate of interest was proposed, and the subjective and objective factors of the propensity to consume and the multiplier were considered, as well as the psychological and business incentives to invest.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity
TL;DR: The authors showed that bank deposit contracts can provide allocations superior to those of exchange markets, offering an explanation of how banks subject to runs can attract deposits, and showed that there are circumstances when government provision of deposit insurance can produce superior contracts.
Posted Content
The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework
TL;DR: This article developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint, and the model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature.
BookDOI
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Carmen Reinhart,Kenneth Rogoff +1 more
TL;DR: This Time Is Different as mentioned in this paper presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes.
Posted Content
Agency Costs, Net Worth, And Business Fluctuations
Ben S. Bernanke,Mark Gertler +1 more
TL;DR: The authors constructs a simple neoclassical model of intrinsic business cycle dynamics in which borrowers' balance sheet positions play an important role and shows that the agency costs of undertaking physical investments are inversely related to the entrepreneur's/borrower's net worth.