Journal ArticleDOI
In one word: Not from experience.
TLDR
The authors argue that the expectation that people will improve their judgments with experience is mistaken and founded on an incorrect conception of the nature of experience, which leads to a far more pessimistic view about people's ability to learn from experience, a view that is in closer correspondence with the facts from studies on clinical judgement.About:
This article is published in Acta Psychologica.The article was published on 1980-08-01. It has received 492 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Inference & Causality.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Clinical judgment, clinical training, and professional experience.
TL;DR: The results on the validity of judgments generally fail to support the value of on-the-job experience in mental health fields, but some results suggest that experienced clinicians are better than less experienced judges at knowing which of their judgments are likely to be correct and which arelikely to be wrong.
Journal ArticleDOI
CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions
Rayna Brown,Neal Sarma +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the role of CEO overconfidence and CEO dominance in the firm's decision to undertake an acquisition and find that both of them are important in explaining the decision to acquire another firm.
Book
Behavioral and organizational considerations in the design of information systems and processes for planning and decision support
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss performance determinants and design requirements for systems and processes for planning and decision support, and some recommendations and interpretations are given concerning both contemporary efforts and needed future efforts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Propositions about the Psychology of Professional Judgment in Public Accounting
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors tackle the fundamental psychological modeling of what happens when professional judgments form and deci- ferentially form, in order to make decisions that matter, amid the pressures, constraints, dangers, and opportunities of their everyday environment.
Journal ArticleDOI
Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance and Resource Allocation in Science
TL;DR: It is argued that the “intellectual distance” between the knowledge embodied in research proposals and an evaluator’s own expertise systematically relates to the evaluations given.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
On the psychology of prediction
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction and show that people do not appear to follow the calculus of chance or the statistical theory of prediction.
Book
Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge
TL;DR: A collection of classic essays written throughout Popper's illustrious career, expounding and defending his 'fallibilist' theory of knowledge and scientific discovery.
Journal ArticleDOI
Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.
T. W. Hutchison,Karl Popper +1 more
Book
A study of thinking
TL;DR: A Study of Thinking as discussed by the authors is a pioneering account of how human beings achieve a measure of rationality in spite of the constraints imposed by bias, limited attention and memory, and the risks of error imposed by pressures of time and ignorance.