Journal ArticleDOI
Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting
TLDR
In this paper, the authors address the issue of judgementally adjusting statistical forecasts for fast demand items, and the implications of such interventions in terms of both forecast accuracy and stock control, with the latter being measured through inventory volumes and service levels achieved.About:
This article is published in International Journal of Forecasting.The article was published on 2010-01-01. It has received 119 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Demand forecasting & Probabilistic forecasting.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods
TL;DR: All aspects of M4 are covered in detail, including its organization and running, the presentation of its results, the top-performing methods overall and by categories, its major findings and their implications, and the computational requirements of the various methods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction
TL;DR: The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research.
Journal ArticleDOI
Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the future
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of the literature in Supply Chain Forecasting aims at bridging the gap between theory and practice in the existing knowledge base in SCF, highlighting the most promising approaches and suggesting their integration in forecasting support systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intermittent demand forecasts with neural networks
TL;DR: The authors proposed a neural network (NN) methodology to forecast intermittent time series, which can capture interactions between non-zero demand and the inter-arrival rate of demand events, overcoming the limitations of Croston's method.
Journal ArticleDOI
M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions
TL;DR: The M5 Accuracy Challenge as discussed by the authors was the first of two parallel challenges in the latest M competition with the aim of advancing the theory and practice of forecasting, and the main objective was to accurately predict 42,840 time series representing the hierarchical unit sales for the largest retail company in the world by revenue, Walmart.
References
More filters
Book
Inventory management and production planning and scheduling
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a framework for inventory management and production planning and scheduling with a focus on the most important (Class A) and routine (Class C) items.
Journal ArticleDOI
The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications
Spyros Makridakis,Michèle Hibon +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the M3-Competition, the latest edition of the M-Competitions, is described and its results and conclusions are compared with those of the previous two M-competitions as well as with other major empirical studies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting
TL;DR: The efficient market hypothesis gives rise to forecasting tests that mirror those adopted when testing the optimality of a forecast in the context of a given information set, but there are also important differences arising from the fact that market efficiency tests rely on establishing profitable trading opportunities in real time.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed analysis revealed that, while the relatively larger adjustments tended to lead to greater average improvements in accuracy, the smaller adjustments often damaged accuracy, and positive adjustments which involved adjusting the forecast upwards, were much less likely to improve accuracy than negative adjustments.
Journal ArticleDOI
On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE
Paul Goodwin,Richard Lawton +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the proposed modification is far from symmetric, particularly where these errors have large absolute values, and they also show that a non-monotonic relationship can occur between the symmetric MAPE and the absolute forecast errors.