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Simple control for complex pandemics: the impact of testing and contact tracing on heterogeneous networks
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In this paper, a branching model and an individual-based model were proposed to capture the stochastic, heterogeneous nature of interactions within a community, with the surprising result that a community's resilience to disease outbreaks is independent of its underlying network structure.Abstract:
Amidst the current COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying the effects of strategies that mitigate the spread of infectious diseases is critical. This article presents a compartmental model that addresses the role of random viral testing, follow-up contact tracing, and subsequent isolation of infectious individuals to stabilize the spread of a disease. We propose a branching model and an individual (or agent) based model, both of which capture the stochastic, heterogeneous nature of interactions within a community. The branching model is used to derive new analytical results for the trade-offs between the different mitigation strategies, with the surprising result that a community's resilience to disease outbreaks is independent of its underlying network structure.read more
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References
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Spreading Dynamics of an SEIR Model with Delay on Scale-Free Networks
TL;DR: To be more precise in modeling the real epidemic spread, an SEIR model with delay describing the fixed latent period is studied on scale-free networks and the basic reproduction number, which serves as a critical threshold of epidemic spread is calculated.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical and large-scale numerical analysis of the critical susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is performed. And the authors show that the expected outbreak size is an increasing function of the initial number of infected individuals.
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Reconceptualizing Social Distancing: Teletherapy and Social Inequality During the COVID-19 and Loneliness Pandemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic amid a preexisting loneliness epidemic, as well as argue in favor of the reconceptualization of social distancing as...
Mathematical model for control of measles by vaccination
TL;DR: A compartmental mathematical model of the dynamics of measles spread within a population with variable size is used to provide a framework for applying vaccination strategies and theoretical results show that adding a second opportunity strategy to the routine immunization program enhances herd immunity with lower mortality.
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Epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks with recurrent mobility patterns.
TL;DR: A discrete-time Markov chain method is proposed to model susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics in heterogeneous networks and finds that the dominations of different types of residences might reverse when mobility probability varies for some networks.