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Simple control for complex pandemics: the impact of testing and contact tracing on heterogeneous networks
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TLDR
In this paper, a branching model and an individual-based model were proposed to capture the stochastic, heterogeneous nature of interactions within a community, with the surprising result that a community's resilience to disease outbreaks is independent of its underlying network structure.Abstract:
Amidst the current COVID-19 pandemic, quantifying the effects of strategies that mitigate the spread of infectious diseases is critical. This article presents a compartmental model that addresses the role of random viral testing, follow-up contact tracing, and subsequent isolation of infectious individuals to stabilize the spread of a disease. We propose a branching model and an individual (or agent) based model, both of which capture the stochastic, heterogeneous nature of interactions within a community. The branching model is used to derive new analytical results for the trade-offs between the different mitigation strategies, with the surprising result that a community's resilience to disease outbreaks is independent of its underlying network structure.read more
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References
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An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology
TL;DR: The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases and includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number.
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TL;DR: R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied.
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Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.
TL;DR: The findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship and the probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 at the tenth day in the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of delays on effectiveness of contact tracing strategies for COVID-19: a modelling study.
Mirjam Kretzschmar,Ganna Rozhnova,Ganna Rozhnova,Martin C. J. Bootsma,Martin C. J. Bootsma,Michiel van Boven,Janneke van de Wijgert,Janneke van de Wijgert,Marc J. M. Bonten,Marc J. M. Bonten +9 more
TL;DR: The impact of timeliness and completeness in various steps of a contact tracing strategy is evaluated using a stochastic mathematical model with explicit time delays between time of infection and symptom onset and between symptom onset, diagnosis by testing, and isolation.
Journal ArticleDOI
A model for tuberculosis with exogenous reinfection.
TL;DR: It is suggested that reducing R(0) to be smaller than one may not be sufficient to eradicate the disease, and an additional reduction in reinfection rate may be required.