Journal ArticleDOI
Some Results Concerning the Estimation of Beta Distribution Parameters in PERT
TLDR
In this paper, the traditional method of estimating mean activity-time in PERT analysis, as a weighted average of the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic activity-times, is examined.Abstract:
The traditional method of estimating mean activity-time in PERT analysis, as a weighted average of the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic activity-times, is examined. Based on properties of the beta distribution, it is shown that there are theoretical grounds for using this estimate for a specified range of modal activity times. Finally, a simple refinement of the estimate is suggested when the modal value lies outside this range.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
The triangular distribution as a proxy for the beta distribution in risk analysis
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the possibility of using the more intuitively obvious triangular distribution as a proxy for the beta distribution and proposed a procedure for estimating the parameters of a triangular distribution on the basis of two extreme percentiles and the median.
Journal ArticleDOI
A classified bibliography of recent research relating to project risk management
TL;DR: This document considers how success or failure can be defined for a project (more than simple time/cost/technical target achievement), and looks at the historical evidence of projects, illustrating failure to achieve targets.
Journal ArticleDOI
Generating Experimental Data for Computational Testing with Machine Scheduling Applications
Nicholas G. Hall,Marc E. Posner +1 more
TL;DR: A generation scheme for precedence constraints that achieves a target density which is uniform in the precedence constraint graph and a generation scheme that explicitly considers the correlation of routings in a job shop is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Decision support system for risk management: a case study
TL;DR: This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.
Journal Article
Project risk management: a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach
TL;DR: In this article, a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis is presented, which demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.
References
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Book
Simulation Modeling and Analysis
Averill M. Law,W. David Kelton +1 more
TL;DR: The text is designed for a one-term or two-quarter course in simulation offered in departments of industrial engineering, business, computer science and operations research.
Journal ArticleDOI
Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation
TL;DR: The development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance, U.S. Navy is described.
Journal ArticleDOI
An Analytical Study of the PERT Assumptions
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the results of a mathematical analysis of the standard assumptions used in PERT calculations, including the beta distribution assumption, the standard deviation assumption and the approximation formula for the mean, and the imprecise time estimates.