Book ChapterDOI
Some Statistical Aspects of Adaptive Optimization and Control
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In this article, the authors focus on the problem of predicting the best adjustments to be applied to a set of independent variables in a response function, such as the concentration of consecutive batches of a product, to keep the product close to a specified target value.Abstract:
It is often necessary to adjust some variable X such as the concentration of consecutive batches of a product, to keep X close to a specified target value. A second more complicated problem occurs when the independent variables X in a response function η(X) are to be adjusted so that the derivatives ∂η/∂Xare kept close to a target value zero, thus maximizing or minimizing the response. These are shown to be problems of prediction, essentially, and the paper is devoted mainly to the estimation from past data of the “best” adjustments to be applied in the first problem.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Combination of Forecasts
J. M. Bates,Clive W. J. Granger +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, two separate sets of forecasts of airline passenger data have been combined to form a composite set of forecasts, and different methods of deriving these weights have been examined.
Journal ArticleDOI
The combination of forecasts
J. M. Bates,Clive W. J. Granger +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, two separate sets of forecasts of airline passenger data have been combined to form a composite set of forecasts, and different methods of deriving these weights have been examined.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical process monitoring and feedback adjustment: a discussion
George E. P. Box,Tim Kramer +1 more
TL;DR: Rationales for process monitoring using some of the techniques of statistical process control and for feedback adjustment using some techniques associated with automatic process control are explored, and issues that sometimes arise are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
A change in level of a non-stationary time series.
George E. P. Box,George C. Tiao +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the problem of making inferences about a possible shift in level of the series associated with the occurrance of an event at some particular time, for example, the observations might be of some economic indicator and one might suspect a change in level to occur in a particular interval because of change in fiscal policy.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts
TL;DR: The exponential weighted average can be interpreted as the expected value of a time series made up of two kinds of random components: one lasting a single time period (transitory) and the other lasting through all subsequent periods (permanent) as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical forecasting for inventory control
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model for estimating the average rate of demand and the maximum reasonable demand during a lead time based on the Z-transform, which can be applied to the analysis and solution of inventory control problems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Prediction by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages and Related Methods
TL;DR: In this article, the mean square error of an e.w.m.a. is compared with the minimum possible value, namely that for the best linear predictor (Wiener).