The design and analysis of computer experiments

TLDR: This paper presents a meta-modelling framework for estimating Output from Computer Experiments-Predicting Output from Training Data and Criteria Based Designs for computer Experiments.

Abstract: Many scientific phenomena are now investigated by complex computer models or codes A computer experiment is a number of runs of the code with various inputs A feature of many computer experiments is that the output is deterministic--rerunning the code with the same inputs gives identical observations Often, the codes are computationally expensive to run, and a common objective of an experiment is to fit a cheaper predictor of the output to the data Our approach is to model the deterministic output as the realization of a stochastic process, thereby providing a statistical basis for designing experiments (choosing the inputs) for efficient prediction With this model, estimates of uncertainty of predictions are also available Recent work in this area is reviewed, a number of applications are discussed, and we demonstrate our methodology with an example