The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming
Michael D. Hurd,Michael D. Hurd,Michael D. Hurd,James P. Smith,James P. Smith,Julie Zissimopoulos,Julie Zissimopoulos +6 more
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In this article, the authors estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of Social Security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional Social Security annuities.Abstract:
According to the life-cycle model, mortality risk will influence both retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth. We estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of Social Security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional Social Security annuities. We find that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire earlier and claim earlier than those with higher subjective probabilities, but the effects are not large. The great majority of workers claim as soon as they are eligible.read more
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References
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An Overview of the Health and Retirement Study
F. Thomas Juster,Richard Suzman +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the scientific, public policy, and organizational background out of which the Health and Retirement Study emerged and describe the evolution of the major parameters of the survey and the unique planning structure designed to ensure that the substantive insights of the research community were fully reflected in the content of the database, highlights key survey innovations contained in the HRS, and provides a preliminary assessment of the quality of the data as reflected by sample size, sample composition, response rate and survey content.
Posted Content
The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market
TL;DR: In this article, a new empirical study of the relation between money, nominal income, prices, and real output in postwar quarterly U.S. data rejects virtually all of the conclusions reached by Families provide individuals with risk sharing opportunities which may not otherwise be available.
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The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market
TL;DR: In the absence of public annuities, these risk-sharing arrangements provide powerful incentives for marriage and family formation as discussed by the authors, and they can substitute by more than 70 percent for perfect market annuity markets.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study
Michael D. Hurd,Kathleen McGarry +1 more
TL;DR: In the Health and Retirement Study respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85 as mentioned in this paper, and these responses were analyzed to determine if they behave like probabilities of survival, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual mortality outcomes.
Posted Content
The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
Michael D. Hurd,Kathleen McGarry +1 more
TL;DR: The authors used panel data to study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality and found that respondents modify appropriately their survival probabilities based on new information The onset of a new disease condition or the death of a parent between the waves is associated with a reduction in survival probabilities.
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