Journal ArticleDOI
US Nobel laureates: Logistic growth versus Volterra–Lotka
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TLDR
In the study of US Nobel laureates considering laureates per population improves the quality of the logistic fit but the Volterra-Lotka approach suggests that a logistic description would be a good approximation for data per unit of time rather than cumulative data as discussed by the authors.About:
This article is published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.The article was published on 2011-05-01. It has received 11 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Population.read more
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Grey Lotka–Volterra model and its application
Lifeng Wu,Sifeng Liu,Yinao Wang +2 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a grey Lotka-Volterra model is proposed, and a linear programming method is used to estimate the parameters of the grey model under the criterion of the minimization of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
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Modelling logistic growth by a new diffusion process: Application to biological systems
TL;DR: A new diffusion process for the purpose of modelling logistic-type behaviour patterns verifies that its mean function is a logistic curve and its transition density can be found explicitly, which allows to analyse inference from the discrete sampling of trajectories.
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Diffusion and competition of voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1948-2009
Vladimír Baláž,Allan M. Williams +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply concepts of population dynamics to the evolution of communication technologies and examine the dynamics of voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics in 1948-2009 via the Lotka-Volterra equations.
Patterns of creation and discovery an analysis of defense laboratory patenting and innovation
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a new approach to measure research and innovation performance using patents by examining the trends in patent filings over time within organizations and within technology classes, and developed several hypotheses regarding the organizational drivers of these patenting patterns and, using data from the DOD laboratories demonstrates how these patent patterns can be used to study the relationships between the rate and type of innovation and various quantitative and qualitative organizational characteristics.
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Seaport throughput forecasting and post COVID-19 recovery policy by using effective decision‐making strategy: A case study of Vietnam ports
TL;DR: In this paper , the dynamic interactions between seaports and decision-making strategy for seaport operations by utilizing four-dimensional fractional Lotka-Volterra competition model under frequently disrupted by time-delay factor are investigated.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Strengths and weaknesses of S-curves
TL;DR: For the last 22 years I have been fitting logistic S-curves to data points of historical time series at an average rate of about 2-3 per day as mentioned in this paper.
A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change : Technological Forecasting and Social Change
J. C. Fisher,R. H. Pry +1 more
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A theory of technological progress
TL;DR: This theory starts by establishing a hierarchy of artifacts and classifying them in a simple scheme and explains the growth of a new artifact in the absence of substantial competition and the substitution of one artifact technology for another.
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Determination of the Uncertainties in S-Curve Logistic Fits
A Debecker,Theodore Modis +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, look-up tables and graphs are provided for determining the uncertainties during logistic fits, on the three parameters M, α and t o describing an S-curve of the form: S(t)= M 1 + e −α(t−t 0 ) The uncertainties and associated confidence levels are given as a function of the uncertainty on the data points and the length of the historical period.