Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2011"

TL;DR: A discussion of the principal forms of establishing rigour, such as the application of rigour using both qualitative and quantitative measurements and corroborating results with relevant evidence in the field for each individual Delphi is presented in this article.

TL;DR: A conceptual model, appropriate for the intention to use healthcare information systems, is proposed by adopting the system, service, and information qualities covered in the Information System Success Model proposed by DeLone and Mclean as the external variables and integrating the three dimensions of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and intention toUse.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set down their thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with their immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future.

TL;DR: This introduction characterises the papers in this special Delphi issue, which include both conceptual and empirical works, and summarises the main lessons that have been learned from these for the conduct of the technique.

TL;DR: The special issue on Backcasting for Sustainability as mentioned in this paper introduces a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to "normative forecasting" and normative scenarios.

TL;DR: The current conceptual language of transitions is reframed and expanded from a complexity view on societal systems and the central idea is that any transition path can be considered a concatenation of patterns.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe recent progress in the utilization of participatory scenario-based backcasting approaches to sustainability research that blend quantitative and qualitative analyses in order to explore alternative climate change futures, as undertaken in a range of academic, government and private sector projects in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada.

TL;DR: The role of cultural legitimacy in technical innovation journeys is discussed in this article, where the authors develop a new perspective that connects insights from discourse theory, interpretive approaches to culture, cultural sociology and social movement theory.

TL;DR: Convergence with examples from the area of Nutraceuticals and Functional Foods/Cosmeceuticals as well as information technologies, consumer electronics, and telecommunications is discussed as a proof of principle for monitoring convergence through patent indicators.

TL;DR: In this paper, a real-time Delphi technique is introduced to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of realtime presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time.

TL;DR: This paper analyses the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process to develop scenarios at pan-European level and hopes to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenarios development and backcasting analysis.

TL;DR: This article assesses the incorporation of expert knowledge via the Delphi technique into scenario planning as a promising option, discusses possible combinations and identifies the span of design alternatives in the existing body of Delphi-based scenario studies through a systematic research review and provides recommendations on how a Delphi -based scenario study should be designed to ensure quality.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role to increase the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role to challenge innovation projects.

TL;DR: A new methodology based on three well-known qualitative techniques, with a view to harmonising their potentialities and reducing their limitations, through application in real contexts with experts who are professionals in their respective activities is presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development.

TL;DR: The authors argue that process gain in Delphi must occur through those further from the "truth" changing their opinion more than those closer to the truth, with the general direction of opinion change being towards the truth.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian bio-fuels and show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed.

TL;DR: In this paper, a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction is developed and empirically test a choice based conjoint adaption model.

TL;DR: The authors' proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and for producing a graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on CIA, and allows working with large sets of events without using large computational infrastructures.

TL;DR: In this paper, a methodological framework for participatory backcasting is presented, after which a conceptual framework is developed to describe and evaluate the impact of backcasting experiments, and three cases are analysed: (1) Novel Protein Foods and meat alternatives; (2) Sustainable Household Nutrition; and (3) Multiple Sustainable Land Use in rural areas.

TL;DR: The ExpertLens system and methodology is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined how social structures and agency have been included in backcasting studies for sustainable development, and an analytical framework was developed, based on what objects were included in the analysis.

TL;DR: The method divides citation networks into clusters using the topological clustering method, track the positions of papers in each cluster, and visualize citation networks with characteristic terms for each cluster to determine whether there are emerging knowledge clusters.

TL;DR: In this article, four patent strategic clusters were identified for thin-film solar cells and the results regarding the company and technology levels of the clusters were integrated with profile data and developmental progress information to understand the patent performance, technologic capacity, and R&D background of the a-Si TFSC.

TL;DR: A more complete overview of factors based on the available literature is developed, which can be used by both researchers and practitioners to understand historical and current format battles as well as acceptance of formats without direct competitors.

TL;DR: In this article, the effects of the desirability bias in foresight have been studied in six Delphi studies and it has been shown that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desireability.

TL;DR: In this article, the strengths, weaknesses and pitfalls encountered when combining qualitative and quantitative information in a Delphi process and when reporting the results as scenarios or images of the future are analyzed.

TL;DR: In this article, a framework for the evaluation of innovation networks is developed, using elements of the social network analysis literature and the resource-based view, which is subsequently applied to compare two policy-driven innovation networks: 1) the Center for Translational Molecular Medicine; and 2) the BioMedical Materials program.

TL;DR: This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes.