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What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects
TLDR
In this paper, the authors present the first statistically significant study of the causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects and find that cost escalation is strongly dependent on the length of the implementation phase.Abstract:
Results from the first statistically significant study of the causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects are presented. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on: (1) the length of the project‐implementation phase, (2) the size of the project and (3) the type of project ownership. First, it was found, with very high statistical significance, that cost escalation was strongly dependent on the length of the implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: decision‐makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, projects have grown larger over time, and for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing the cost escalation for three types of project ownership - private, state‐owned enterprise and other public ownership - it was shown that the oft‐seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. The type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.read more
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References
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MonographDOI
Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the role of politicians and the public in the process of land-use development megaprojects and suggest practical solutions drawing on theory and scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents.
Posted Content
Kostenunterschätzung bei öffentlichen bauprojekten: fehler oder lüge? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?)
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a comparative study of actual and estimated costs in transportation infrastructure development, with a sample of 66 transportation projects, which approaches a large-sample study and takes a step toward valid statistical analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
A comparative study of causes of time overruns in Hong Kong construction projects
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the results of a survey undertaken to determine and evaluate the relative importance of the significant factors causing delays in Hong Kong construction projects, including poor site management and supervision, unforeseen ground conditions, low speed of decision making involving all project teams, client-initiated variations and necessary variations of works.
Journal ArticleDOI
How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices).
Journal ArticleDOI
Megaprojects and Risk. An Anatomy of Ambition
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects and risk and suggest practical solutions drawing on theory and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations that illustrate the book.