What to do next? the case for non-predictive strategy

TLDR: This paper argues for the independence of prediction and control, that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through either predictive or control oriented approaches, and develops and highlights control oriented approach to open new avenues for dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the question of what organizations should do next.

Abstract: Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations: planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making owing to the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the independence of prediction and control. This implies that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through control-oriented approaches that may essentially be non-predictive. We further develop and highlight control-oriented approaches with particular emphasis on the question of what organizations should do next. We also explore how these approaches may impact the costs and risks of firm strategies as well as the firm's continual efforts to innovate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.