Showing papers on "Boom published in 2003"

Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles

Abstract: When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more gradual. Our explanation for this pattern rests on learning about productivity. When agents believe productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More production generates higher precision information. When the economy passes the peak of a productivity boom, precise estimates of the slowdown prompt quick, decisive reactions: Investment and labor fall sharply. At the end of a slump, low production yields noisy estimates of the recovery. The noise impedes learning, slows the recovery, and makes booms more gradual than crashes. A calibrated model generates asymmetry in growth rates similar to macroeconomic aggregates. Fluctuations in agentsâ¬" forecast precision match observed countercyclical dispersion in analystsâ¬" macroeconomic forecasts.â¬SThere is, however, another characteristic of what we call the trade cycle that our explanation must cover; namely, the phenomenon of the crisis - the fact that the substitution of a downward for an upward tendency often takes place suddenly and violently, whereas there is, as a rule, no such sharp turning point when an upward is substituted for a downward tendency.â¬? J.M. Keynes (1936)

Comments on " The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong"

Abstract: The experience of the 1990s renewed economists’ interest in the role of credit in macroeconomic fluctuations. The locus classicus of the credit-boom view of economic cycles is the expansion of the 1920s and the Great Depression. In this paper we ask how well quantitative measures of the credit boom phenomenon can explain the uneven expansion of the 1920s and the slump of the 1930s. We complement this macroeconomic analysis with three sectoral studies that shed further light on the explanatory power of the credit boom interpretation: the property market, consumer durables industries, and high-tech sectors. We conclude that the credit boom view provides a useful perspective on both the boom of the 1920s and the subsequent slump. In particular, it directs attention to the role played by the structure of the financial sector and the interaction of finance and innovation. The credit boom and its ultimate impact were especially pronounced where the organization and history of the financial sector led intermediaries to compete aggressively in providing credit. And the impact on financial markets and the economy was particularly evident in countries that saw the development of new network technologies with commercial potential that in practice took considerable time to be realized. In addition, the structure and management of the monetary regime mattered importantly. The procyclical character of the foreign exchange component of global international reserves and the failure of domestic monetary authorities to use stable policy rules to guide the more discretionary approach to monetary management that replaced the more rigid rules-based gold standard of the earlier era are key for explaining the developments in credit markets that helped to set the stage for the Great Depression.

The great depression as a credit boom gone wrong

Abstract: The experience of the 1990s renewed economists’ interest in the role of credit in macroeconomic fluctuations. The locus classicus of the credit-boom view of economic cycles is the expansion of the 1920s and the Great Depression. In this paper we ask how well quantitative measures of the credit boom phenomenon can explain the uneven expansion of the 1920s and the slump of the 1930s. We complement this macroeconomic analysis with three sectoral studies that shed further light on the explanatory power of the credit boom interpretation: the property market, consumer durables industries, and high-tech sectors. We conclude that the credit boom view provides a useful perspective on both the boom of the 1920s and the subsequent slump. In particular, it directs attention to the role played by the structure of the financial sector and the interaction of finance and innovation. The credit boom and its ultimate impact were especially pronounced where the organization and history of the financial sector led intermediaries to compete aggressively in providing credit. And the impact on financial markets and the economy was particularly evident in countries that saw the development of new network technologies with commercial potential that in practice took considerable time to be realized. In addition, the structure and management of the monetary regime mattered importantly. The procyclical character of the foreign exchange component of global international reserves and the failure of domestic monetary authorities to use stable policy rules to guide the more discretionary approach to monetary management that replaced the more rigid rules-based gold standard of the earlier era are key for explaining the developments in credit markets that helped to set the stage for the Great Depression.

A Loudness Calculation Procedure Applied to Shaped Sonic Booms

Abstract: The economic viability of a supersonic commercial transport airplane would be much enhanced if it could fly supersonically over land Efforts to design an airplane to produce a minimized sonic boom at the ground require knowledge of the impact of sonic booms on people Loudness, being a fundamental and well-understood characteristic of human hearing, was chosen as a means of quantifying the magnitude of sonic boom impact on people This paper describes in detail a procedure that can be used to calculate the loudness of sonic booms The procedure is applied to a wide range of sonic booms, both classical N-waves and a variety of other shapes of booms The loudness of N-waves is controlled by overpressure and the associated rise time The loudness of shaped booms is highly dependent on the characteristics of the initial shock A comparison of the calculated loudness values indicates that shaped booms may have significantly reduced loudness relative to N-waves having the same peak overpressure This result implies that a supersonic transport designed to yield minimized sonic booms may be substantially more acceptable than an unconstrained design

Politcal Foundations of the Resource Curse

Abstract: In this paper we argue that the political incentives that resource endowments generate are the key to understanding whether or not they are a curse. We show: (1) politicians tend to over-extract natural resources relative to the efficient extraction path because they discount the future too much. (2) resource booms "improve" the efficiency of the extraction path. However, (3), resource booms, by raising the value of being in power and by providing politicians with more resources which they can use to influence the outcome of elections, "increase" resource misallocation in the rest of the economy. (4), the overall impact of resource booms on the economy depends critically on institutions since these determine the extent to which political incentives map into policy outcomes. Countries with good institutions tend to benefit from resource booms since these institutions mitigate the perverse political incentives that such booms create. Countries with bad institutions suffer a "resource curse".

Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia

Abstract: Timber Booms and Institutional Breakdown in Southeast Asia. By Michael L. Ross. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Pp. xvi + 237. A concern for tropical deforestation in three Southeast Asian countries: the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) has led Ross to chronicle the policy failures of governments in these countries, drawing from new institutional economics and the theory of rent seeking to explain the paradox of resource booms and accompanying institutional breakdown. According to Ross, post-boom failures have arisen because politicians have engaged in a form of rent-seeking behaviour, introduced and appropriately termed by Ross as "rent seizing". Rent seizing is defined as effort by public officials to seek the right to allocate rents to others (p. 33). In seeking this right, institutions are reconfigured to favour and safeguard the interests of such rentseizing officials and politicians. In what may seem to be a complex intermingling of political economy issues involving corruption, cronyism, over-exploitation of natural resources, and weak governance, Ross's strength lies in linking timber windfall gains with rent-seizing activity and subsequent policy failures (systemic abuses of natural resource management in these countries). Ross argues that changes in the independent variable - windfall timber revenues due to a boom - have led to the causal mechanism of rent seizing by officials which in turn produced negative changes in the dependent variable (breakdown of forestry institutions and policies). Eight chapters set out the problem of natural resource mismanagement in a political economy context, to investigate this interesting and challenging topic in a detailed and very methodical manner. Chapter 1 introduces the issues pertinent for understanding timber booms and the attendant breakdown of forestry institutions and policies. The next chapter then lays out the scope of the problem of resource booms in a very general manner by examining resource booms in countries within and outside Southeast Asia. A workable definition of resource booms, and measurement of institutional performance are provided in this chapter. A resource boom is defined as a sharp financial gain arising from the export of an unprocessed commodity, while institutional performance is measured by the ability of the state to protect resource windfalls from pressures of overharvesting. The theory of rent seizing is discussed in detail in Chapter 3. The methodological approach used for examining resource booms and policy failures is also laid out in this chapter, ending with a discussion of the case study format to be used in Chapters 4 to 7. The next four chapters focus on four areas separately: the Philippines (Chapter 4), Sabah (Chapter 5), Sarawak (Chapter 6), and Indonesia (Chapter 7). Each chapter begins with a discussion of the history and politics of the country (in the case of Malaysia, Ross focuses specifically on the state of Sabah and Sarawak). The period in which the timber boom began, the subsequent manifestations of rent-seizing activity, and the differing intensities of these activities depending on the historicity of the country or state, and the breakdown in institutions which ensued (for example, breakdown in sustained-yield forestry policies, and dilution in the influence of forest departments) is discussed in exacting clarity. …

Reform from above : the politics of participation in the oil monarchies.

Abstract: The oil monarchies of the Middle East have usually been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies dominated by traditional tribal families who have come to encompass the modern states, its institutions and economy. The focus of much discussion about these states since the oil boom of the 1970s has been that oil income has provided their tribal elites with an economic boom and an ability to use `rent' as their primary tool for the pacification of their citizens and for resisting demands for reform. In the light of significant political changes and reforms introduced in the oil monarchies since the late 1990s, it is time to reevaluate our assessment of the oil monarchies' ability to change, to adapt. Empirical data not only supports the view that the oil monarchies are introducing reforms, albeit at a varied speed, but that it is the elites themselves who are emerging as the greatest agents for change.

Roll control system and method for a suspended boom

Abstract: A roll control system is provided for controlling a roll position of a boom rotatably coupled to a support frame, the boom comprising left and right wing sections (where the roll of the boom refers to a clockwise or counterclockwise rotation of said boom relative to the support frame) A roll control mechanism is configured for rotating the boom relative to the support frame in response to a roll control signal Wing section position measuring apparatus is configured for producing a right wing signal correlatable to a distance between the right wing section and a rightwing reference position and a left wing signal correlatable to a distance between the left wing section and a left wing reference position Boom roll position measuring apparatus is configured for producing a boom roll signal correlatable to a roll position of the boom relative to a boom roll reference position A controller is configured for: (i) identifying a wing section differential value and a boom roll value derived from the right and left wing signals and the boom roll signal, respectively; (ii) identifying a boom roll control error value derived from the wing section differential value and the boom roll value, the boom roll error control value being configured for deriving therefrom the roll control signal Advantageously, the roll control system of the invention takes into account both the height differential (relative to a ground reference) between the left and right wings and the boom roll position relative to a neutral (reference) position

Three episodes of financial fragility in Norway since the 1890s

Abstract: This paper provides for the first time a comparative study of three major banking crises in Norway (1899-1905, 1920-28 and 1988-92), and presents financial and macroeconomic data spanning more than 130 years. Financial sector development appears to be closely linked to booms and busts in economic activity during these years. The boom periods that preceded each of the three crises all have some common features: they were characterised by significant bank expansion, considerable asset price inflation and increased indebtedness. The non-financial sector increased its debt only slightly more than its income during the first two boom periods, but subsequent deflation increased its debt burden. A puzzle in the two first boom periods was that the commercial bank equity-to-total assets ratio increased markedly. Nonetheless, the commercial banks were severely affected in the each subsequent bust. Possible explanations are provided, but this puzzle calls for more research. Altogether, a strong causal link between financial fragility and banking crises is suggested. The crises occurred in different institutional environments and monetary policy regimes, and the role of these is explored and policy lessons are drawn. In particular, the close link between monetary and financial stability is highlighted.

Investment strategies in market uncertainty

Abstract: The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the pruden...

Supersonic Business Jet Design using a Knowledge-Based Genetic Algorithm with an Adaptive, Unstructured Grid Methodology

Abstract: In the design of supersonic low-boom aircraft, it is important to balance the aerodynamic performance and sonic boom requirements in a way that represents the best compromise for the overall design. Since the ground sonic boom is typically not a smooth function of the design variables and may actually contain multiple local minima, it is important to select an optimization algorithm that is able to cope with this kind of design space. In this work, we study the use of Kriging approximation models for both boom and performance and use them in conjunction with genetic algorithm techniques to investigate the computational cost and characteristics of such an approach for the design optimization of a low-boom supersonic business jet (SBJ). Direct use of genetic algorithms with high-fidelity CFD analysis tools has been limited by the inherently large computational cost of genetic algorithms (GAs). The use of computationally inexpensive approximation models in lieu of high-fidelity CFD greatly improves the robustness and eciency of the design process for searches in relatively large design spaces. In order to improve the performance of this method, a new hybridization strategy that combines a GA with gradient information is proposed and its improved convergence rate is demonstrated. Regardless, the proposed procedures still require a large number of evaluations of the flow and boom patterns for dierent points in the design space. For this purpose we have built two automated Euler analysis tools that use a CAD-based geometry engine, and both multiblock-structured and unstructured, adaptive meshing techniques (they are named QSP107 and QSP-UA respectively). QSP-UA, has been developed to handle the geometric detail of the complete configuration including wing, fuselage, nacelles, diverters, empennage, etc., and to provide accurate performance and boom data. Results of sample test problems, and a 15-dimensional design case are presented and discussed.

The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong

Abstract: The experience of the 1990s renewed economists' interest in the role of credit in macroeconomic fluctuations. The locus classicus of the credit-boom view of economic cycles is the expansion of the 1920s and the Great Depression. In this paper we ask how well quantitative measures of the credit boom phenomenon can explain the uneven expansion of the 1920s and the slump of the 1930s. We complement this macroeconomic analysis with three sectoral studies that shed further light on the explanatory power of the credit boom interpretation: the property market, consumer durables industries, and high-tech sectors. We conclude that the credit boom view provides a useful perspective on both the boom of the 1920s and the subsequent slump. In particular, it directs attention to the role played by the structure of the financial sector and the interaction of finance and innovation. The credit boom and its ultimate impact were especially pronounced where the organisation and history of the financial sector led intermediaries to compete aggressively in providing credit. And the impact on financial markets and the economy was particularly evident in countries that saw the development of new network technologies with commercial potential that in practice took considerable time to be realised. In addition, the structure of management of the monetary regime mattered importantly. The procyclical character of the foreign exchange component of global international reserves and the failure of domestic monetary authorities to use stable policy rules to guide the more discretionary approach to monetary management that replaced the more rigid rules-based gold standard of the earlier era are key for explaining the developments in credit markets that helped to set the stage for the Great Depression.

Financial deregulation with a fixed exchange rate: Lessons from Norway's boom-bust cycle and banking crisis

Abstract: The Norwegian 1991-1992 banking crisis was the first manifestation that something had gone terribly wrong in the previously very stable and well-run Nordic economies. This paper compares the Norwegian boom-bust cycle, macroeconomic policies and the banking crisis with what happened in Sweden and Finland shortly afterwards. The deregulation of the credit market triggered a lending boom that made the Norwegian economy very vulnerable to adverse shocks when the exchange rate was fixed. We argue that the pro-cyclical monetary policy due to the fixed-exchange-rate regime was one of several important factors explaining the weak performance of the Norwegian economy, the deep decline in real estate prices, and the banking crisis. * Thanks are due to Bjørn Skogstad Aamo, Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, Øyvind Eitrheim, Svein Gjedrem, Finn Hvistendahl, Arne Jon Isachsen, Per Richard Johansen, Lars Jonung, Jan Tore Klovland, Kai Leitemo, Arild Lund, Thorvald Moe, Hermod Skånland, Henning Strand, Øystein Thøgersen, Bent Vale, Pentti Vartia, and Erling Vårdal for useful comments. The responsibility for remaining errors and omissions is mine. This research has been supported by “Fondet for bank og finansstudier”, BI Norwegian School of Management, and is part of an on-going research project on the economic crises in Finland and Sweden in the 1990s.

Anti-sway system for boom cranes based on an optimal control approach

Abstract: For the operation of boom cranes a significant high level of experience is needed to achieve a large amount of handled containers. Therefore, automation systems with anti-sway abilities for boom cranes were developed to increase the handling rate especially for inexperienced crane operators. In the paper, an optimal control approach is presented as an alternative to feedback control systems. After deriving the nonlinear dynamic model, the anti-sway problem is formulated as a nonlinear constrained optimal control problem. The numerical solution method for this optimal control problem is presented. The results are illustrated at measurements for the harbour mobile crane LIEBHERR LHM400.

Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom

Abstract: In recent work, Stacey Tevlin and Karl Whelan argue that aggregate econometric models fail to capture the US investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s, whereas a disaggregated approach does much better. In particular, they show that aggregate models do not capture the increase in replacement investment associated with compositional shifts in the capital stock towards high depreciation rate assets, such as computers. And aggregate models invariably find little or no role for the real user cost, so do not pick up the strong effects of relative price declines on investment in computers. In this paper, a data set for the United Kingdom is constructed in order to investigate the ability of different equations to account for the UK boom in plant and machinery investment in the second half of the 1990s. The findings are similar to those of Tevlin and Whelan, whose analysis is extended in two main ways. First, the failure of the aggregate equations is explained more formally in terms of misspecification when relative prices are trending downwards. Second, the econometric analysis is conducted in a formal cointegration framework. As in the United States, the paper shows that asset-level equations can explain the investment boom in plant and machinery in the second half of the 1990s in the United Kingdom, whereas the aggregate equation fails completely.

Thailand's investment-driven boom and crisis

Abstract: Analyses of the Asian crisis of 1997 have focused excessively on the financial sector, especially the banks. The role of the real sector in exposing the financial system to stress has been under-emphasized. This paper provides a real-sector explanation for Thailand's crisis, demonstrating the role of the investment boom of the preceding decade. We build a full macroeconomic model of the Thai economy and use it to demonstrate that the investment boom and its changing composition generated record growth but also increased macroeconomic vulnerability. This vulnerability, combined with the trigger of an export slowdown in 1996, produced the crisis. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Load-sensing mechanism for aerial work apparatus

Abstract: An aerial work apparatus having a boom mounted to a base, a platform attached to the distal end of the boom, a boom mechanism for positioning the platform, a boom control module mounted with respect to the platform, a vertical load-sensing mechanism mounted at the platform for measuring the platform load and generating a load signal based on that measurement, and a controller operationally attached to the boom mechanism and boom control module. The controller receives the load signal and at least one position signal relating to the position of the platform and generates at least one control signal based thereon. The boom mechanism is controlled by the boom control module through the controller. Preferably, the load-sensing mechanism is held in position by a vertical support column attached at the distal end of the boom so that the mechanism fully supports a platform support member attached to the platform.

Term structures in the office rental market in Stockholm

Abstract: This paper contains an empirical study of the rental term structure in a property market that included a dramatic boom and bust cycle. The study is applied to office leases in commercial properties ...

Sonic Boom Reduction Through the Use of Non-Axisymmetric Configuration Shaping

Abstract: Traditional sonic boom minimization efforts have followed the approach of designing a Whitham “Ffunction” which produced the desired boom signature, followed by development of an airplane configuration representing the same equivalent distribution, and thus boom signature. With the computational resources available today, it is possible to reevaluate the solution approach of many aspects of the boom minimization problem. The near field solution about complex and highly non-axisymmetric configurations may be routinely solved in great detail without the slender body, weak shock, small disturbance assumptions and limitations necessary in the earlier mathematical approaches. Investigations of non-axisymmetric configurations have shown promise when the majority of the disturbance in the supersonic flow field is directed upward, resulting in reduced pressure disturbances, and thus reduced sonic boom below the configuration. CFD analysis and wind tunnel test results on axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric equivalent area distributions have shown good experiment/theory agreement and show that the concept has merit for reducing boom and should be developed further for more representative aircraft configurations.

Television Policies of the Labour Party 1951-2001

Abstract: Introduction - the "non-issue" of television Labour and the post-War boom, 1951-64 Harold Wilson and "modernization", 1964-70 the rise of the Left, 1970-79 in the shadow of the Tories, 1979-92 the era of New Labour, 1992-2001 conclusion - Labour and reform

The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom

Abstract: This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run-up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010-2030 might lead to an "asset meltdown". The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby-boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward-looking macro-demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but "saving for America's old age" is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change.

Skid steer loader bucket shaker

Abstract: A work vehicle having an implement, including: a frame; a boom arm assembly connected at one end to the frame; an implement assembly pivotally connected to another end of the boom arm assembly and including the implement; a first hydraulic implement cylinder connected to the implement assembly and positioned to pivotally rotate the implement relative to the boom arm assembly when a piston of the first implement cylinder is extended or retracted, the first hydraulic implement cylinder being connected to a first electrohydraulic valve for activating extension and retraction of the piston of the first implement cylinder; and a controller connected to send control signals to activate the first electrohydraulic valve, wherein the controller sends a series of shaking control signals to alternately extend and retract the first implement cylinder to effect a shaking movement of the implement.

Unitary boom structure

Abstract: The present invention comprises a sprayer boom and is incorporated in a spraying apparatus which includes a vehicle, a tank, hoses connected to nozzles, and the sprayer boom. The sprayer boom includes a number of wing sections each including at least one single-piece component cut from a sheet of metal to form a web or truss structure which replaces the usual rods and welds support provided to sprayer booms of this nature. Obtaining the single-piece component by cutting it from a sheet of metal rather than constructing the truss-structure by use of many rods reduces material and labor costs. Spaced apart rungs or tabs on the bottom of the sprayer boom provide openings through which sprayer nozzles are aimed while the nozzles, hoses and connectors remain mostly recessed within the boom which provides physical protection from wind and other damage and still allows easy access for repair.