Showing papers on "Boom published in 2014"

Dynamics Analysis and Nonlinear Control of an Offshore Boom Crane

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of an offshore boom crane and proposes a high-performance nonlinear controller to drive the system states to track some constructed trajectories. Specifically, by employing Lagrange's method in an attached frame, a dynamic model is obtained for the offshore crane system consisting of the boom and a payload, with specific emphasis on the effect of the vessel's motion on the payload swing. Based on the model, a novel nonlinear control law is designed for the underactuated boom crane, which makes the system states track some planned trajectories successfully, even in the presence of persistent disturbance in harsh sea conditions. The stability of the designed closed-loop system is proven by Lyapunov techniques. Simulation and experimental results are included to demonstrate that the proposed control method significantly reduces the impact of the disturbance in harsh sea conditions.

Production of Natural Gas from Shale in Local Economies: A Resource Blessing or Curse?

Abstract: The extraction of natural gas from shale and tight gas formations is one of the largest innovations in the US energy sector in several decades According to the Energy Information Agency's (EIA) 2013 Annual Energy Outlook, total US recoverable natural gas resources were estimated to be 2,327 trillion cubic feet, up from 1,259 trillion cubic feet in 2000 Using projected annual growth in US natural gas consumption, current US reserves of natural gas represent an estimated 70 years' worth of supply This energy boom has reversed a long downward trend in US natural gas production In the 1970s the US energy sector seemingly conceded its decline and began investing in global markets to survive That trend reversed course in the mid-2000sA key question is whether this now abundant and accessible natural resource has positive effects on local economic conditions Some theories suggest resource abundance may increase local economic development through higher demand for labor in the energy sector and spillover spending in the local economy Other theories, though, suggest industries not closely related to the resource extraction industry may be harmed as energy production expands For example, labor demand by the extraction industry may be high enough to bid up local wages, which in turn could pull employees from other lower-paying jobs and make it difficult for other industries to survive At the national and international level, this phenomenon has been referred to as the "natural resource curse," but the topic has received much less attention at the local levelThis article investigates how the recent boom in the US natural gas industry has affected local economies in the central United States Labor market conditions at the county level in a nine-state region are analyzed using econometric models to determine how employment and wages have responded to the rapid expansion of natural gas production from 2001 to 2011 The article finds a modest positive impact on local labor market outcomes in counties where natural gas production has increased, and little evidence of a natural resource curseSection I discusses factors leading to the shale boom in the natural gas industry and potential opportunities for the US economy Section II highlights factors that can lead to a natural resource curse or "blessing" and how those factors look different at the local and national levels Section III describes the study region and discusses the empirical findings and evidence of a resource curseI SHALE BOOM: A TALE OF TWO TECHNOLOGIESTechnologies pursued initially by two independent energy companies that were eventually brought together have forever changed the oil and gas industry Production and proven reserves of natural gas have increased significantly since the mid-2000s This increase has opened new possibilities for the US economyHydraulic fracturing and horizontal drillingIn the early 1980s, Mitchell Energy & Development Corporation, led by George P Mitchell, drilled the first well in the Barnett Shale field in western Texas Instead of encountering the typical, highly porous rock of conventional formations, Mitchell Energy encountered shale Shale has the potential to hold vast amounts of natural gas; however, it is highly nonporous, which causes the gas to be trapped in the rock Mitchell Energy experimented over 20 years with different techniques, and found that by using hydraulic fracturing (commonly referred to as "fracking") it was able to break apart the rock to free natural gas Fracking consists of shooting a mixture of water, chemicals, and sand into wells to create fissures in rock formations that frees the trapped gasOver the same period, Devon Energy Corporation of Oklahoma City had been developing horizontal drilling techniques Advances in controls and measurement allowed operators to drill to a certain depth, then drill further at an angle or even sideways, exposing more of the reservoir and allowing much greater recovery …

The Great Housing Boom of China

Abstract: China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China's paradoxical housing boom.

Local Labor Market Restructuring in the Shale Boom

Abstract: Innovations in hydraulic fracturing have led to oil and gas booms in various shale plays across the U.S. The economic impact of shale development has been estimated previously with varying results. The results are often used to justify supporting the industry. Thus, a precise estimate of the economic impact to communities is important. A county level analysis of the lower 48 states from 2001-2011 provides an estimate of the local economic impact as well as the labor market restructuring occurring due to the recent shale boom and can provide insight into the mechanisms behind the "natural resource curse." Results suggest that the im- pact of shale development on employment is modest, with the impact on earnings growth ap- proximately double that of the impact on employment, though the growth effects seem to wane over time. The employment multiplier from oil and gas development is estimated to be approximately 1.3.

Rural North Dakota's Oil Boom and Its Impact on Social Services

Abstract: Over the last five years, North Dakota has experienced an oil boom based on high oil prices and hydraulic fracturing technologies. This has brought economic expansion and population growth to rural communities that had previously experienced decades of depopulation and economic struggle. Although the state has enjoyed many benefits--especially in juxtaposition to a sluggish national economy--the boom has also meant the arrival of economic refugees and dramatic impacts on largely rural social service systems. In the midst of a rapidly changing situation, available information tends to swing between euphoria over economic success and hysteria about rising crime and shifting cultures. In response, the authors used a primary focus group with county social service directors from across the state and a followup focus group with social workers operating on the edge of oil activity. Grounded in resilience theory, qualitative analysis of the primary focus group, and triangulation of data from other sources, this study provides a more objective report of the housing and social challenges, the benefits of the boom, and the challenges to solutions.

Betting the House

Abstract: Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era.

The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the mining boom in Australia, using a large-scale structural macroeconometric model, AUS-M. We estimate that the mining boom boosted real per capita household disposable income by 13 per cent by 2013. The boom has contributed to a large appreciation of the Australian dollar that has weighed on other industries exposed to trade, such as manufacturing and agriculture. However, because manufacturing benefits from higher demand for inputs to mining, the deindustrialisation that sometimes accompanies resource booms – the so-called ‘Dutch disease’ – has not been strong.

How housing killed the Celtic tiger: anatomy and consequences of Ireland's housing boom and bust

Abstract: Between 1996 and 2006, Ireland experienced unprecedented house price inflation, driven by a fourfold increase in the volume of outstanding private mortgage debt and accompanied by a radical growth in housing output. This article outlines the most significant features of the housing boom and explains how it generated and disguised crucial risks in the macro economy and public finances, among mortgage lenders and in the finances of individual households. This is followed by an outline of the key features of the unwinding of the boom since and of its implications for the Irish economy, mortgage lenders and households. The conclusions examine the lessons regarding appropriate regulatory and policy responses to a house price boom which arise from the Irish experience.

Design of Ultrathin Composite Self-Deployable Booms

Abstract: Recently developed analysis techniques for thin shells that can be folded elastically and are able to self-deploy are used to develop an iterative design approach for this type of structure. The proposed approach considers a series of potential designs and then evaluates, for each trial design, key performance parameters through a complete simulation of its folding and deployment behavior. This design approach is applied to a boom concept consisting of a thin-walled tube in which two tape-spring hinges are made by cutting diametrically opposite slots; the geometry of the slots is fully defined by the length, width, and end diameter of the cuts. A design for a two-hinge, 1-m-long, lightweight self-deployable boom that can be wrapped around a small spacecraft is developed; the hinge geometry is chosen such that there is no damage during folding/deployment of the boom, and also the boom becomes latched at the first attempt. The chosen boom design is successfully validated experimentally.

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: Macroprudential Tools at Work in Canada

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of the policy measures taken by Canadian authorities to address the housing boom. We find that the the last three rounds of macroprudential policies implemented since 2010 were associated with lower mortgage credit growth and house price growth. The international experience suggests that - in addition to tighter loan-to-value limits and shorter amortization periods - lower caps on the debt-to-income ratio and higher risk weights could be effective if the housing boom were to reignite. Over the medium term, the authorities could consider structural measures to further improve the soundness of housing finance.

Betting the House

Abstract: Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest rates unrelated to home economic conditions. We use novel instrumental variable local projection methods to demonstrate that loose monetary conditions lead to booms in real estate lending and house prices bubbles; these, in turn, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era.

Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America

Abstract: Do natural resources benefit producer economies, or is there a "Natural Resource Curse," perhaps as Dutch Disease crowds out manufacturing? We combine new data on oil and gas abundance with Census of Manufactures microdata to estimate how oil and gas booms have affected local economies in the United States Migration does not fully offset labor demand growth, so local wages rise Notwithstanding, manufacturing is actually pro-cyclical with resource booms, driven by growth in upstream and locally traded sectors The results highlight the importance of highly local demand for many manufacturers and underscore how natural resource linkages can drive manufacturing growth

Bistable Over the Whole Length (BOWL) CFRP Booms for Solar Sails

Abstract: This paper presents novel ultra-light booms for solar sails and other large deployable space structures. These CFRP booms have a unique property: bistability over the whole length (BOWL), which enables simple and compact deployment mechanism designs that can reduce overall system mass. They were produced to solve some of the previously encountered problems with bistable composite tubular booms that reduced their optimal length and scalability due to local buckling phenomena when the diameter of the coil increased. A new low-cost manufacturing technique, which consists of using braids with a variable angle change over the boom length, was found to have a positive effect in reducing that tendency. An analytical model is used to explain this behavior and predict the secondary stable state properties and natural diameter of the coiled/packed boom. A 3.6 m tape spring version of these bistable CFRP booms has been designed for a 25 m2 Gossamer Sail Deorbiter of future space assets and is being considered for an upcoming solar sail demonstration mission called CubeSail. Larger booms are being designed for a new scalable roll-up solar array concept.

Sonic Boom: Six Decades of Research

Abstract: Sonic booms generated by aircraft traveling at supersonic speeds have been the subject of extensive aeronautics research for over 60 years. Hundreds of papers have been published that document the experimental and analytical research conducted during this time period. The purpose of this publication is to assess and summarize this work and establish the state-of-the-art for researchers just entering the field, or for those interested in a particular aspect of the subject. This publication consists of ten chapters that cover the experimental and analytical aspects of sonic boom generation, propagation and prediction with summary remarks provided at the end of each chapter. Aircraft maneuvers, sonic boom minimization, simulation techniques and devices as well as human, structural, and other responses to sonic booms are also discussed. The geometry and boom characteristics of various low-boom concepts, both large civil transports and smaller business-jet concepts, are included. The final chapter presents an assessment of civilian supersonic overland flight and highlights the need for continued research and a low-boom demonstrator vehicle. Summary remarks are provided at the end of each chapter. The studies referenced in this publication have been drawn from over 500 references.

From Boom and Bust to Regional Waves: Development Patterns in the Peace River Region, British Columbia

Abstract: Many studies of rural and remote resource region development focus upon the stresses associated with economic booms or busts. But what happens in regions where, over time, the pattern has become one of on-going and alternating up- and down-swings in economic activity? Rather than coping with the pressures of growth or contraction at various times, communities must adapt to a perpetual state of readiness to react and plan within a much more compressed timeline. We use the concept of "regional waves" to describe this new pattern of economic development and impact on remote rural regions. To explore this phenomenon, we draw upon the Peace River region of northeastern British Columbia, Canada, where the oil and gas industry has been well established for decades. We begin with a review of Staples Theory, and the challenges for local and regional economies associated with staples dependency and the staples trap. This is followed by the introduction of regional economic waves that are set against a context in which communities, as a result of neoliberal policies, are increasingly left on their own to react to the pressures of change. The paper goes on to examine how communities with limited capacities and service resources are reacting through innovative responses to the regional wave pattern. We review community innovation in response to four issues: infrastructure deficit, human and social service provision, services to industry, and housing. The discussion then highlights how this oil and gas frontier region has experienced rapid and alternating cycles of economic up- and down-swings; how these connect with the role of the private sector; the consequences of a neoliberal approach to development policy; and the demand for a new model of resource town development that addresses the need for ongoing readiness. Keywords: oil and gas development, regional development, boom-bust, regional development waves

State Building in Boom Times: Commodities and Coalitions in Latin America and Africa

Abstract: Acknowledgments 1. The Multiple Motives behind State Building in the Developing World The Revenue Imperative and State Building in the Developing World Alternative State Building Motives Boom Times and State Building in Coalitional Perspective Commodity Booms and State Building in Latin America and Africa 2. Boom Times, Coalitional Politics, and State Building State Capacity, Public Goods, and Institutions: The Conceptual Terrain A Coalitional Approach to State Building: The Theoretical Argument Case Selection and Measurement Alternative Hypotheses 3. Striking State Building due to Chile's Double Boom, 1848-1883 Chile at Mid-Century The Revenue Imperative and Chilean State Building Chile's Double Boom in Wheat and Copper Public Goods Provided, but only to Ruling Coalition Members An Opposition Enriched, Civil War, and Institution Building Chile in 1883: A Precocious Latin American Leviathan 4. Seizing State Building Opportunities during Argentina's Wool Boom, 1852-1886 Argentina at Mid-Century The Revenue Imperative and Argentine State Building Argentina's Wool Boom New Public Goods for Powerful Ranching Elites Enriching Exports, Inter-Provincial Conflict, and Institution Building Argentina in 1886: From Port City to Modern State 5. Sugar Exporters, New Public Goods, and State Building in Mauritius, 1825-1895 Initial Conditions in Mauritius, 1825 The Revenue Imperative and Mauritian State Building The Sugar Boom and the Transformation of Mauritius Public Goods Seeking and Mauritian State Building Without a Diametrical Threat, Mediated Institutions Remain Mauritius in 1895: New Public Goods and a Growth in State Capacity 6. Marginalized Coffee Exporters and Missed State Building Opportunities in Colombia, 1880-1905 Colombia in the Late Nineteenth Century The Revenue Imperative and Colombian State Building Colombia's Coffee Boom Ostracized Coffee Exporters Fail to Obtain New Public Goods A Non-Elemental Threat Obviates Institution Building Persistent State Weakness in Colombia 7. Nationalist Politicians Squander State Building Opportunities while Fleecing Cocoa Exporters in Ghana, 1945-1966 Ghana at Mid-Century The Revenue Imperative and Ghanaian State Building Ghana's Postwar Cocoa Boom The CPP Frustrates Exporters' Efforts to Obtain New Public Goods The Persistence of Mediated Institutions in Postwar Ghana Ghana in 1966: Illusory State Building and Low State Capacity 8. Exporters' Marginalization and the Persistence of Nigeria's Weak State, 1945-1966 Nigeria at Mid-Century The Revenue Imperative and Nigerian State Building The Agricultural Commodity Boom Politically Marginalized Exporters Fail to Obtain New Public Goods Institutional Decentralization to Placate Nationalist Elites Nigeria in 1966: An Enervated State 9. Conclusion and Implications Theoretical Implications What Is the Resource Curse? Policy Implications References

Is There a 'Boom Bias' in Agency Ratings?

Abstract: Theory predicts rating agencies' incentive conflicts to be stronger in boom periods, thereby leading to biased ratings and a reduced level of rating quality. We empirically investigate this prediction using a large data set of almost 10,000 U.S. corporate bonds, publicly issued between 1990 and 2007. Our main findings are twofold: First, initial ratings appear to be overly optimistic during boom periods when compared to initial bond spread levels or 'incentive-free' benchmark ratings. Second, boom bond ratings are more heavily downgraded and perform poorly in predicting defaults from an ex post perspective. In several robustness checks we show that the observed 'boom bias' is not resulting from changes in credit-worthiness, adjustments in rating standards over time, competitive pressure, or investor demand, but rather from rating agencies' incentive conflicts.

Political Booms, Financial Crises

Abstract: We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies that would help prevent potential crises. We provide evidence of the relevance of this reputation mechanism.

Automated mobile boom system for crawling robots

Abstract: A system comprising a multi-functional boom subsystem integrated with a holonomic-motion boom base platform. The boom base platform may comprise: Mecanum wheels with independently controlled motors; a pair of sub-platforms coupled by a roll-axis pivot to maintain four-wheel contact with the ground surface; and twist reduction mechanisms to minimize any yaw-axis twisting torque exerted on the roll-axis pivot. A computer with motion control software may be embedded on the boom base platform. The motion control function can be integrated with a real-time tracking system. The motion control computer may have multiple platform motion control modes: (1) a path following mode in which the boom base platform matches the motion path of the surface crawler (i.e., integration with crawler control); (2) a reactive mode in which the boom base platform moves based on the pan and tilt angles of the boom arm; and (3) a collision avoidance mode using sensors distributed around the perimeter of the boom base platform to detect obstacles.

Thermal Impact on Damaged Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay: Permeameter and Isostatic Tests with μCT Scanning

Abstract: Within the framework of the TIMODAZ project, permeameter tests and isostatic tests were performed on Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay in order to assess the impact of temperature, pore water composition, and confining stress on the sealing of damaged samples of Boom Clay and Opalinus Clay. A microfocus X-ray computed tomography technique was used to visualize the evolution of the sealing process. Compared to the fast sealing of Boom Clay, the sealing of Opalinus Clay was much slower. The heating showed a significant, favorable impact on the sealing behavior of Opalinus Clay under permeameter test conditions, while the sealing behavior of Boom Clay appeared to be unaffected. Tests performed under isostatic conditions did not reveal a significant influence of a heating–cooling cycle on the sealing behavior of these clays. The reappearance of the fractures or holes in the samples after dismantling confirms earlier observations which showed that after sealing, the original mechanical properties are not recovered. In other words, a heating cycle does not seem to induce healing.

The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression

Abstract: In the 1929-1933 downturn of the Great Depression, house values and homeownership rates fell more, and mortgage foreclosure rates were higher, in cities that had experienced relatively high rates of house construction in the residential real-estate boom of the mid-1920s. Across the 1920s, boom cities had seen the biggest increases in house values and homeownership rates. These patterns suggest that the mid-1920s boom contributed to the depth of the Great Depression through wealth and financial effects of falling house values. Also, they are very similar to cross-sectional patterns across metro areas around 2006.

How should Uganda grow

Abstract: Income per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradeable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes Future growth will depend on achieving sufficient export dynamism In addition, growth faces a number of other challenges: low urbanisation rate, rapid rural population growth and high dependency ratios However, both the dependency ratio and fertility rates have begun to decline recently Rural areas are also severely overcrowded with low productivity subsistence agriculture as a pervasive form of production Commercial agriculture has great possibilities to increase output, but as the sector improves its access to capital, inputs and technology it will shed jobs rather than create them These challenges combined tell us that future growth in Uganda will require a rapid rate of export growth and economic diversification The country faces the prospect of an oil boom of uncertain size and timing It could represent an important stepping stone to achieve external sustainability, expanded income and infrastructure and a greater internal market However, as with all oil booms, the challenges include avoiding the Dutch disease, managing the inevitable volatility in oil incomes and avoiding inefficient specialisation in oil Policies that set targets for the non-oil deficit could help manage some of these effects, but a conscious strategy to diversify would still be needed The best strategy is therefore to use the additional oil revenue and accompanying investments to promote a diversification strategy that is sustainable To determine how to encourage such a transformation, we draw on a new line of research that demonstrates how development seldom implies producing more of the same Instead, as countries grow, they tend to move into new industries, while they also increase productivity in existing sectors In this report, we analyse what those new industries might be for Uganda To do so, we first look to those products which balance the desire to increase the diversification and complexity of production, while not over-stretching existing capabilities These include mostly agricultural inputs, such as agrochemicals and food processing In addition, Uganda should concurrently develop more complex industries, such as construction materials, that are reasonably within reach of current capabilities and will be in great demand in the context of an oil boom Here, the fact that Uganda is landlocked and faces high import costs will provide natural protection to the expanding demand in Uganda and neighbouring countries We conclude with a discussion of the government policies that will support Uganda in developing new tradeable industries