Showing papers on "Credibility published in 1986"

Improving Risk Communication

Abstract: This paper explores reasons for difficulties in communicating risks among analysts, the laypublic, media, and regulators. Formulating risk communication problems as decisions involving objectives and alternatives helps to identify strategies for overcoming these difficulties. Several strategies are suggested to achieve risk communication objectives like improving public knowledge about risks and risk management, encouraging risk reduction behavior, understanding public values and concerns, and increasing trust and credibility.

A Cumulative Study of the Effectiveness of Managerial Training

Abstract: The published and unpublished literature on the effectiveness of managerial training has produced conflicting results and left more unanswered questions than definitive statements concerning the effectiveness of managerial training. In the present study, meta-analysis procedures were applied to the results of 70 managerial training studies to empirically integrate the findings of the studies. The metaanalysis results for 34 distributions of managerial training effects representing six training content areas, seven training methods, and four types of criteria (subjective learning, objective learning, subjective behavior, and objective results) indicated that managerial training is, on the average, moderately effective. For 12 of the 17 managerial training method distributions, the 90% lower bound credibility values were positive, and thus the effectiveness of these training methods, at least at a minimal level, can be generalized to new situations. It is stressed that although this meta-analysis assisted in clarifying what we have learned about managerial training, a great deal of empirical research on managerial training is needed before more conclusive statements can be made.

Six Propositions on Public Participation and Their Relevance for Risk Communication

Abstract: New societal obligations for communicating risk information are emerging in a variety of contexts. This article draws upon the lengthy societal experience with citizen participation programs to identify how risk communication efforts may be effectively structured and implemented. Six major propositions address such themes as means/ends differences in expectations, the timing of the program, the role of credibility and trust, the need for technical and analytical resources, differing thresholds of public involvement, and limitations upon current understandings. Key conclusions for the design of risk communication programs are set forth.

Central Bank Behavior and Credibility: Some Recent Theoretical Developments

Abstract: Recent theoretical literature on the behavior of monetary policymakers may be divided into two broad categones — positive and normative. The positive literature formulates hypotheses about the objectives and constraints fircing central bankers and derives implications for the behavior of both observable vanables (e.g., the rate of monetary growth amid the rate of inflation) and unobservable variables (e.g., policy credihilityi The normative literature focuses on the issue ofhow, given the behavior of central bankex-s, monetary institutions can he redesigned to improve social welfare. Both approaches use the same general analytic framework to model central bank behavior.

The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility

Abstract: It is often argued that the EMS is an effective disciplinary device for inflation-prone countries in the EEC, since it forces policy-makers in these countries to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise. It is not clear, however, why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline. This paper argues that in order to answer this question appropriately, one must consider that EMS membership brings potentially large credibility gains to policy-makers in high-inflation countries: the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation (in terms of competitiveness losses), but makes the public aware that the policy-maker is faced with such penalty, and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public's mistrust for the authorities. We study the conditions under which these credibility gains are larger than the penalties that the policy-maker incurs in equilibrium. When policy-makers attach no value to inflationary finance, we find that they will always prefer EMS membership. When the policy-maker needs revenue from the inflation tax, however this conclusion is not always true. The opposite contention, that EMS membership is an inferior regime for any government that needs inflationary finance is also generally incorrect. The outcome of the welfare comparison depends (i) on the value placed by the policy-maker on seigniorage relative to the discounted output cost of inflation, and (ii) on the tightness of EMS discipline, as measured by the time interval between realignments and by the portion of lost competitiveness that the country is not allowed to recover at realignments.

The Role of Eyewitness Confidence in Juror Perceptions of Credibility1

Abstract: A review of the theory and research concerning factors affecting persuasion suggested the hypothesis that eyewitness confidence is an important factor in jurors' perceptions of the witness' credibility. Three experiments were conducted using mock jurors to test this hypothesis. Experiment I found that perceptions of credibility varied as a function of witness confidence. Experiment 2 found that perceptions of the accuracy of the witness' description and identification of the suspect varied as a function of her expertise, whereas perceptions of the accuracy of her account of the crime varied as a function of her confidence. Perceived expertise also varied as a function of witness confidence. Because Experiments 1 and 2 used college students as subjects, Experiment 3 was conducted to replicate these findings in an older subject sample. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Whither corporate social reporting: is it time to legislate?

Abstract: This article reviews the development of corporate social reporting—its theoretical underpinnings, its conceptual frameworks, and its application in practice. Specifically, the usefulness and the actual use of the information contained in social reports are evaluated. In view of the experience to date and the current socio-economic conditions, a number of possible scenarios are discussed and policy options presented. The underlying challenge is to develop and institutionalize measures which ensure the usefulness and use of social reports. Doing this would make business more responsive to societal concerns by providing for the identification of information needs and for feedback processes, and by maximizing the reliability, credibility, and flexibility of reporting procedures.

Elements of teacher communication competence

Abstract: This study employs a perceptual theory of competence to examine the relationships among student‐teachers’ communication skills, motivation, and knowledge in relation to perceived teaching effectiveness, communicator style and teacher credibility. The results indicate that communication skill instruments may be helpful in differentiating successful from non‐successful student teachers.

Whither corporate social reporting: is it time to legislate?

Abstract: This article reviews the development of corporate social reporting—its theoretical underpinnings, its conceptual frameworks, and its application in practice. Specifically, the usefulness and the actual use of the information contained in social reports are evaluated. In view of the experience to date and the current socio-economic conditions, a number of possible scenarios are discussed and policy options presented. The underlying challenge is to develop and institutionalize measures which ensure the usefulness and use of social reports. Doing this would make business more responsive to societal concerns by providing for the identification of information needs and for feedback processes, and by maximizing the reliability, credibility, and flexibility of reporting procedures.

Credibility assessment of simulation results

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide some guidelines for assessing the credibility of simulation results. The life cycle of a simulation study is characterized in terms of 10 phases, 10 processes, and 13 credibility assessment stages (CASs). The credibility of simulation results is assessed by integrating ten CASs: formulated problem verification, feasibility assessment, system and objectives definition verification, model qualification, communicative model verification, programmed model verification, experiment design verification, data validation, model validation, and quality assurance of experimental model. Indicators are identified for evaluating credibility in most of the CASs. The guidelines provided herein are essential for the success of a simulation study.

The child as witness: competency and credibility.

Abstract: The terms competency and credibility are defined as they relate to child witnesses. The criteria employed by the courts in assessing a child's competency to testify are discussed, and research into the effect on children's testimony of limitations of memory, and of suggestibility, susceptibility to external influence, emotional arousal and long delay, is summarized. A systematic approach to the clinical evaluation of credibility is described, and the concept of a specific biopsychosocial syndrome associated with sexual abuse critically discussed.

Credibility of Sources of Communication on Products' Safety Hazards:

Abstract: Fear-inducing communications about actual or potential safety hazards of products, are increasingly encountered. These emanate mainly from government agencies and reflect the belief that rational consumers will act to minimize potential risk. Research has shown that credibility of a message source is directly related to effectiveness and persuasion of one message. Although observers have assumed that use of government sources would maximize source credibility in the case of communications about products' safety hazards, recent analyses suggest that this may not be the case. The present research tests two hypotheses with respect to communications of hazard, that government agencies will not necessarily achieve the source with highest credibility among consumers, and that attitude change will be greater among consumers perceiving a source other than the government to be the most credible. Findings are repotted for three studies of different samples of consumers. One involved an experiment in which consumers...

Aesthetic Components of Management Ethics

Abstract: Traditionally, the place of ethics in business practices has been to supply a decision procedure or some formal normative orientation. This paper asserts that the role of ethics is much larger than that, going beyond “knowing that” to include “knowing how” as an important epistemological extension to traditional ethical theory. Ethics thus becomes, in part, a form of art, giving added credibility to the commonly heard phrase “the art of managing.”

Enhancing the credibility of ecology: Is interdisciplinary research for land use planning useful?

Abstract: Interdisciplinary approaches involving inputs from both the natural and social sciences represent one operational and social response to the complexity of today's environmental and land use problems. The resulting amalgam can be useful to both science and society, given the right mix of ingredients. Important steps in the planning and conduct of interdisciplinary research include problem indentification; definition of a precise scientific theme derived from the social demand; choice of relevant disciplines; selection of study area and spatial scale; ensuring that the project is adaptable to changing circumstances; obtaining the involvement of scientists, planners and local people; developing a continuum of actions from basic and applied research through to training and information diffusion; early and explicit definition of the criteria for evaluation. Though interdisciplinary approaches have shown their worth, they founder easily. Obstacles include the behavioural and psychological characteristics of individual scientists, differences in scientific method, and bottlenecks of a more administrative, institutional, political and financial nature.

Credibility Assessment of Simulation Results: The State of the Art

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a state-of-the-art survey of credibility assessment of simulation results and suggest some future research directions. A hierarchy of the credibility assessment is introduced and the state-of-the-art survey is presented with respect to this hierarchy. A glossary is provided to alleviate the lack of standard terminology. The future research calls upon looking at the global picture when conducting a simulation study and being concerned with all of the eleven credibility assessment stages not just model validation and programmed model verification.

Disputed dimensions of risk: a public school controversy over AIDS.

Abstract: Analysis of court hearings in a case to prevent a child with AIDS from attending school reveals how perceptions of risk are shaped by a range of cultural, political, and institutional factors. The many actors in this ritualized verbal combat sought to control interpretations of evidence, scientific credibility, legitimacy of decision-making procedures, and the balance of rights and responsibilities. Technocratic authority may be less important than symbolic and political issues in determining acceptability of risk.

Effects of Feedback Sign and Credibility on Goal Setting and Task Performance: A Preliminary Test of Some Control Theory Propositions.

Abstract: Consistent with propositions derived from control theory, the results of this laboratory study showed that feedback sign had a main effect and interacted with feedback credibility to influence subj...

Meaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk Games

Abstract: I define neologism-proofness, a refinement of perfect Bayesian equilibrium in cheap-talk games. It applies when players have a preexisting common language, so that an unexpected message′s literal meaning is clear, and only credibility restricts communication. I show that certain implausible equilibria are not neologism-proof; in some games, no equilibrium is. Journal of Economic Literature classification numbers: D83 D82 C73.

Anonymous Attribution in Network News

Abstract: The news media in America have suffered a \"credibility crisis\" in recent years.1 Part of the problem seems to be due to the public's perception that reporters are more interested in getting a good story than in treating people fairly;2 however, some critics have blamed the credibility problem, in part, on the overuse of anonymous attribution.3 Newspapers, magazines, trade journals and scholarly publications have all addressed the issue, but most of the articles have focused on anonymous attribution in the print media.4 The purpose of this study was to focus some attention on the broadcast media by examining the quoting of anonymous sources on network television newscasts. The problem with anonymous attribution, as with so many other ethical concerns in journalism, is that when the practice is used sparingly and carefully with strict controls, it can be a beneficial journalistic tool. But when the practice is abused through indiscriminate use without proper controls, it can undermine the legitimate use of such sources and invite government regulation.5 On the plus side, granting confidentiality to a news source can help a journalist obtain information that might otherwise

Dimensions of Media Credibility: Highlights of the 1985 ASNE Survey:

Abstract: The 1985 ASNE media credibility survey showed the public is most critical of media in their coverage of ordinary people, accuracy and bias. Other credibility problems derive from people's confusion...

Meaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk Games - eScholarship

Abstract: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY Department of Economics Berkeley, California Working Paper 8609 MEANING AND CREDIBILITY IN CHEAP-TALK GAMES Joseph Farrell September 26, 1986 Key words: Communication, signaling, refinement of equilibrium, language, cheap talk, game theory. There have been many previous and more technical versions of this paper; the most recent is listed in the references. For helpful comment s and encouragement, I thank Vincent Crawford, Robert Gibbons, Jerry Green, Eric Maskin, Andrew McLennan, Roger Myerson, Suzanne Scotchier, and especially Joel Sobel. I also thank two helpful referees, one of whom suggested the essay format. JEL Classification:

Credibility and Time Inconsistency in a Stochastic World

Abstract: This paper re-examines the issue of the credibility and sustainability of optimal policies derived from Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and generally regarded as time-inconsistent, in models with forward-looking rational expectations. Specifically, it considers the behaviour of such models in the presence of continuing stochastic noise. This is shown to convert the policy problem from a one-shot dynamic policy game to a continuing game, giving governments an incentive to invest in a reputation for not reneging on the full optimal rule. This incentive may, in certain circumstances, render the full optimal rule credible and therefore sustainable. It is demonstrated that a sufficiently low degree of discounting on the part of government, or a sufficiently high variance of shocks (measured relative to the initial displacement) ensures the sustainability of the full optimal rule. Using a simple dynamic open economy model, these conditions are shown to be plausible unless the discount rate is very high.