Showing papers on "Credit risk published in 2004"

The Relationship between Credit Default Swap Spreads, Bond Yields, and Credit Rating Announcements

Abstract: A company’s credit default swap spread is the cost per annum for protection against a default by the company. In this paper we analyze data on credit default swap spreads collected by a credit derivatives broker. We first examine the relationship between credit default spreads and bond yields and reach conclusions on the benchmark risk-free rate used by participants in the credit derivatives market. We then carry out a series of tests to explore the extent to which credit rating announcements by Moody’s are anticipated by participants in the credit default swap market.

Factors Explaining the Interest Margin in the Banking Sectors of the European Union

Abstract: This study analyses the interest margin in the principal European banking sectors (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain) in the period 1993–2000 using a panel of 15,888 observations, identifying the fundamental elements affecting this margin. Our starting point is the methodology developed in the original study by Ho and Saunders [Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis XVI (1981) 581–600] and later extensions, but widened to take banks' operating costs explicitly into account. Also, unlike the usual practice in the literature, a direct measure of the degree of competition (Lerner index) in the different markets is used. The results show that the fall of margins in the European banking system is compatible with a relaxation of the competitive conditions (increase in market power and concentration), as this effect has been counteracted by a reduction of interest rate risk, credit risk, and operating costs.

An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment-grade bonds and credit default swaps

Abstract: We analyse the behaviour of credit default swaps (CDS) for a sample of firms and find support for the theoretical equivalence of CDS prices and credit spreads. When this is violated we suggest the CDS price can be viewed as an upper bound on the price of credit risk, while the spread provides a lower bound. We show that the CDS market is the main forum for credit risk price discovery and that CDS prices are better integrated with firm-specific variables in the short-run. Both markets equally reflect these factors in the long-run, and this is primarily brought about by bond market adjustment.

Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: This article empirically tests five structural models of corporate bond pricing: those of Merton (1974), Geske (1977), Longstaff and Schwartz (1995), Leland and Toft (1996), and Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001). We implement the models using a sample of 182 bond prices from firms with simple capital structures during the period 1986–1997. The conventional wisdom is that structural models do not generate spreads as high as those seen in the bond market, and true to expectations, we find that the predicted spreads in our implementation of the Merton model are too low. However, most of the other structural models predict spreads that are too high on average. Nevertheless, accuracy is a problem, as the newer models tend to severely overstate the credit risk of firms with high leverage or volatility and yet suffer from a spread underprediction problem with safer bonds. The Leland and Toft model is an exception in that it overpredicts spreads on most bonds, particularly those with high coupons. More accurate structural models must avoid features that increase the credit risk on the riskier bonds while scarcely affecting the spreads of the safest bonds. The seminal work of Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974) in the area of corporate bond pricing has spawned an enormous theoretical literature on risky debt pricing. One motivating factor for this burgeoning literature is the perception that the Merton model cannot generate sufficiently high-yield spreads to match those observed in the market. Thus the recent theoretical literature includes a variety of extensions and

In-Kind Finance: A Theory of Trade Credit

Abstract: It is typically less profitable for an opportunistic borrower to divert inputs than to divert cash. Therefore, suppliers may lend more liberally than banks. This simple argument is at the core of our contract theoretic model of trade credit in competitive markets. The model implies that trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes. Among other things, the model explains why trade credit has short maturity, why trade credit is more prevalent in less developed credit markets, and why accounts payable of large unrated firms are more countercyclical than those of small firms.

Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions

Abstract: This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity. A number of new predictions follow.

Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Government Bond Market

Abstract: This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU eurobonds issued between 1991 and 2002. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premia which increase with the debt, deficit and debt-service ratio and depend positively on the issuer's relative bond market size. Global investors' attitude towards credit risk, measured as the yield spread between low grade US corporate bonds and government bonds, also affects bond yield spreads between EU countries and Germany/USA. The start of the European Monetary Union had significant effects on the bond pricing of the member states.

Credit Risk Modeling: Theory and Applications

Abstract: Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand, and on a direct modeling of the default probability of issuers on the other. He offers insights that can be drawn from each approach and demonstrates that the distinction between the two approaches is not at all clear-cut. The book strikes a fruitful balance between quickly presenting the basic ideas of the models and offering enough detail so readers can derive and implement the models themselves. The discussion of the models and their limitations and five technical appendixes help readers expand and generalize the models themselves or to understand existing generalizations. The book emphasizes models for pricing as well as statistical techniques for estimating their parameters. Applications include rating-based modeling, modeling of dependent defaults, swap- and corporate-yield curve dynamics, credit default swaps, and collateralized debt obligations.

An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads Between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market

Abstract: This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical prediction that bond spreads and CDS spreads move together in the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run this relationship does not always hold. My study shows that the deviation is largely due to different responses of the two markets to changes in credit conditions. In particular, the CDS market appears to move ahead of the bond market in price discovery.

Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk

Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of the probability of default (PD) of bank loans. We focus the discussion on the role of a limited set of variables (collateral, type of lender and bank–borrower relationship) while controlling for the other explanatory variables. The study uses information on the more than three million loans entered into by Spanish credit institutions over a complete business cycle (1988–2000) collected by the Bank of Spain's Credit Register (Central de Informacion de Riesgos). We find that collateralised loans have a higher PD, loans granted by savings banks are riskier and, finally, that a close bank–borrower relationship increases the willingness to take more risk.

Structural Models of Credit Risk are Useful: Evidence from Hedge Ratios on Corporate Bonds

Abstract: It is well known that structural models of credit risk provide poor predictions of bond prices. We show that they may perform much better as a predictor of debt return sensitivities to equity. This is important since it gives us an opportunity to identify much better the reasons for model failure. The main result of this paper is that even the simplest of the structural models (Merton (1974)) produces hedge ratios that are in line with those observed empirically. As well as providing insight into the determinants of corporate bond prices our results are also useful to practitioners who wish to hedge their positions in corporate debt. The paper also shows that corporate bond prices are sensitive to some variables - e.g., VIX - in a way that appears unrelated to credit risk.

Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks

Abstract: We test how active management of bank credit risk exposure through the loan sales market affects capital structure, lending, profits, and risk. We find that banks that rebalance their loan portfolio exposures by both buying and selling loans – that is, banks that use the loan sales market for risk management purposes rather than to alter their holdings of loans – hold less capital than other banks; they also make more risky loans (loans to businesses) as a percentage of total assets than other banks. Holding size, leverage and lending activities constant, banks active in the loan sales market have lower risk and higher profits than other banks. Our results suggest that banks that improve their ability to manage credit risk may operate with greater leverage and may lend more of their assets to risky borrowers. Thus, the benefits of advances in risk management in banking may be greater credit availability, rather than reduced risk in the banking system.

Determinants of Collateral

Abstract: This paper draws upon the theory of contracting under asymmetric information to postulate and test several hypotheses concerning the relationship between the use and amount of collateral in financial loans to firms, the risk profile of the borrower, business cycle and monetary conditions of the economy, strength of the lending relation between borrower and lender, competition in the credit market and expertise and preferences of the lender. The research takes advantage of a very large panel of data coming from the Credit Register that contains the whole population of loans granted every year from 1984 to 2002 by Spanish banks to firms (approximately two million loans). Important novelties of the paper are that the quality of the borrower is measured in terms of ex ante and ex post credit risk, that the association between credit risk of the borrower and the use of collateral is evaluated in different segments of the credit market (short-term, and long-term loans, and new and old borrowers), which are likely to present differences in the relative information advantage of the borrower over the lender, and that we also control for borrowers' idiosyncratic effects. The evidence confirms that the use of collateral is determined in a predictable, different way in each market segment.

How Foreign Participation and Market Concentration Impact Bank Spreads: Evidence from Latin America

Abstract: Increasing foreign participation and high concentration levels characterize the recent evolution of banking sectors' market structures in developing countries. The authors analyze the impact of these factors on Latin American bank spreads during the late 1990s. Their results suggest that foreign banks were able to charge lower spreads relative to domestic banks. This was more so for de novo foreign banks than for those that entered through acquisitions. The overall level of foreign bank participation seemed to influence spreads indirectly, primarily through its effect on administrative costs. Bank concentration was positively and directly related to both higher spreads and costs.

Performance of interest-free islamic banks vis-ã€-vis interest-based conventional banks of bahrain

Abstract: This paper examines the comparative performance of Bahrain’s interest-free Islamic banks and the interest-based conventional commercial banks during the post Gulf War period with respect to (a) profitability, (b) liquidity risk, and (c) credit risk. Nine financial ratios are used in measuring these performances. Applying Student’s t-test to financial ratios for Islamic and conventional commercial banks in Bahrain for the period 1991-2001, the paper concludes that there is no major difference in performance between Islamic and conventional banks with respect to profitability and liquidity. However, the study finds that there exists a significant difference in credit performance. JEL classification: G20, G21 Key words: Banks, Comparative performance, Bahrain

Mergers and Acquisitions and Bank Performance in Europe: The Role of Strategic Similarities

Abstract: An unprecedented process of financial consolidation has taken place in the European Union over the past decade. Building on earlier US evidence, we examine the impact of strategic similarities between bidders and targets on post-merger financial performance. We find that, on average, bank mergers in the European Union resulted in improved return on capital. By making the assumption that balance-sheet resource allocation is indicative of the strategic focus of banks, we also find significantly different results for domestic and cross-border mergers. For domestic deals, it could be quite costly to integrate dissimilar institutions in terms of their loan, earnings, cost, deposits and size strategies. For cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), differences of merging partners in their loan and credit risk strategies are conducive to a higher performance whereas diversity in their capital, cost structure as well as technology and innovation investments strategies are counterproductive from a performance standpoint.

Monitoring, Financial Distress, and the Structure of Commercial Lending Syndicates

Abstract: We examine the size and composition of commercial lending syndicates. Syndicates are smaller and more concentrated when there is little information about the borrower, when credit risk is relatively high, and when a loan is secured. This suggests syndicates are structured to enhance monitoring efforts and to facilitate renegotiation if borrowers become financially distressed. Since loan sales can change a syndicate's structure, lead banks often constrain such activity. Limiting resales results in larger, more diffuse syndicates at the loan origination stage, however. Syndicates also grow larger and more diffuse when arrangers are more reputable, when loans have longer terms to maturity, and when borrowers hold more growth options. Our results are robust in a sample restricted to borrowers with traded equity or with credit ratings. The findings for composition likewise are robust when we control for potential endogeneity bias and for the influence of syndicate size on composition.

International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection

Abstract: We derive a precautionary demand for international reserves in the presence of sovereign risk and show that political-economy considerations modify the optimal level of reserve holdings. A greater chance of opportunistic behaviour by future policy makers and political corruption reduce the demand for international reserves and increase external borrowing. We provide evidence to support these findings. Consequently, the debt-to-reserves ratio may be less useful as a vulnerability indicator. A version of the Lucas Critique suggests that if a high debt-to-reserves ratio is a symptom of opportunistic behaviour, a policy recommendation to increase international reserve holdings may be welfare-reducing.

Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs

Abstract: We use a one-factor credit risk model to provide new estimates of stationary default probabilities and asset correlations in two large samples of French and German Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Results show that, on average, SMEs are riskier than large businesses; and the asset correlations in the SME population are very weak (1–3% on average) and decrease with size. On average, the relationship between PDs and asset correlations is not negative, as assumed by Basel II, but positive, especially at the industry level, in the two countries. It is also possible to distinguish different segments inside the SMEs’ population: at least between very small and small SMEs and large SMEs.

The Role of Non-Financial Factors in Internal Credit Ratings

Abstract: Internal credit ratings are expected to gain in importance because of their potential use for determining regulatory capital adequacy and banks' increasing focus on the risk-return profile in commercial lending. Whereas the eligibility of financial factors as inputs for internal credit ratings is widely accepted, the role of non-financial factors remains ambiguous. Analyzing credit file data from four major German banks, we find evidence that the combined use of financial and non-financial factors leads to a more accurate prediction of future default events than the single use of each of these factors.

What Do We Know About Loss Given Default? 1

Abstract: The New Basel Accord will allow internationally active banking organizations to calculate their credit risk capital requirements using an internal ratings based (IRB) approach, subject to supervisory review. One of the modeling components is loss given default (LGD), the credit loss incurred if an obligor of the bank defaults. The flexibility to determine LGD values tailored to a bank's portfolio will likely be a motivation for a bank to want to move from the foundation to the advanced IRB approach. The appropriate degree of flexibility depends, of course, on what a bank knows about LGD broadly and about differentiated LGDs in particular; consequently supervisors must be able to evaluate "what a bank knows." The key issues around LGD are: 1) What does LGD mean and what is its role in IRB? 2) How is LGD defined and measured? 3) What drives differences in LGD? 4) What approaches can be taken to model or estimate LGD? By surveying the academic and practitioner literature, with supportive examples and illustrations from public data sources, this paper is designed to provides basic answers to these questions. The factors which drive significant differences in LGD include place in the capital structure, presence and quality of collateral, industry and timing of the business cycle.

Credit risk modeling and valuation: an introduction

Abstract: Credit risk is the distribution of flnancial losses due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of a counterparty in a flnancial agreement. We review the structural, reduced form and incomplete information approaches to estimating joint default probabilities and prices of credit sensitive securities.

International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection

Abstract: We derive a precautionary demand for international reserves in the presence of sovereign risk and show that political-economy considerations modify the optimal level of reserve holdings. A greater chance of opportunistic behaviour by future policy makers and political corruption reduce the demand for international reserves and increase external borrowing. We provide evidence to support these findings. Consequently, the debt-to-reserves ratio may be less useful as a vulnerability indicator. A version of the Lucas Critique suggests that if a high debt-toreserves ratio is a symptom of opportunistic behaviour, a policy recommendation to increase international reserve holdings may be welfare-reducing. Over the past fifteen years, developing countries have increased their participation in international financial markets and faced new challenges. In the aftermath of the 1997‐8 Asian financial crises, some observers have called on emerging markets to reduce short-term external debt relative to international reserve holdings in order to lower their vulnerability to crisis. Countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Chile have managed to build up large stockpiles of foreign-currency reserves in recent years. Does it follow that all developing countries would benefit from increasing their cushion of international reserves to signal they are safe borrowers? As the Lucas Critique suggests, this question cannot be answered without understanding the underlying factors that determine a country’s choice of international reserve holdings. We illustrate this point using a model where both efficiency and politicaleconomy considerations play roles in determining a country’s optimal holdings of international reserves. In the absence of political-economy considerations, a country characterised by volatile output, inelastic demand for fiscal outlays, high tax collection costs and sovereign risk will want to accumulate both international reserves and external debt. External debt allows the country to smooth consumption when output is volatile. International reserves, if they are beyond the reach of creditors, allow the country to smooth consumption in the event of a default on the external debt that results in lost access to international capital markets. 1

Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices

Abstract: Credit migration matrices are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications; their accurate estimation is therefore critical. We explore two approaches: cohort and two variants of duration – one imposing, the other relaxing time homogeneity – and the resulting differences, both statistically through matrix norms and economically using a credit portfolio model. We propose a new metric for comparing these matrices based on singular values and apply it to credit rating histories of S&P rated US firms from 1981–2002. We show that the migration matrices have been increasing in “size” since the mid-1990s, with 2002 being the “largest” in the sense of being the most dynamic. We develop a testing procedure using bootstrap techniques to assess statistically the differences between migration matrices as represented by our metric. We demonstrate that it can matter substantially which estimation method is chosen: economic credit risk capital differences implied by different estimation techniques can be as large as differences between economic regimes, recession vs. expansion. Ignoring the efficiency gain inherent in the duration methods by using the cohort method instead is more damaging than imposing a (possibly false) assumption of time homogeneity.

Monitoring, Financial Distress, and the Structure of Commercial Lending Syndicates

Abstract: We examine the size and composition of commercial lending syndicates. Syndicates are smaller and more concentrated when there is little information about the borrower, when credit risk is relatively high, and when a loan is secured. This suggests syndicates are structured to enhance monitoring efforts and to facilitate renegotiation if borrowers become financially distressed. Since loan sales can change a syndicate's structure, lead banks often constrain such activity. Limiting resales results in larger, more diffuse syndicates at the loan origination stage, however. Syndicates also grow larger and more diffuse when arrangers are more reputable, when loans have longer terms to maturity, and when borrowers hold more growth options. Our results are robust in a sample restricted to borrowers with traded equity or with credit ratings. The findings for composition likewise are robust when we control for potential endogeneity bias and for the influence of syndicate size on composition.

Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland

Abstract: In the discussion paper, we employ data on industry-specific corporate sector bankruptcies over the time period from 1986 to 2003 and estimate a macroeconomic credit risk model for the Finnish corporate sector. The sample period includes a severe recession with significantly higher-than average default rates in the early 1990s. The results suggest a significant relationship between corporate sector default rates and key macroeconomic factors including GDP, interest rates and corporate indebtedness. The estimated model is employed to analyse corporate credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, the paper presents some examples of applying the model to macro stress testing, i.e. analysing the effects of various adverse macroeconomic events on the banks' credit risks stemming from the corporate sector. The results of the stress tests suggest that Finnish corporate sector credit risks are fairly limited in the current macroeconomic environment.