Showing papers in "Journal of Banking and Finance in 2004"

Stock markets, banks and growth: Panel evidence

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth using a panel data set for the period 1976-98 and applying recent GMM techniques developed for dynamic panels. On balance, we find that stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth and these findings are not due to potential biases induced by simultaneity, omitted variables or unobserved country-specific effects.

Factors Explaining the Interest Margin in the Banking Sectors of the European Union

Abstract: This study analyses the interest margin in the principal European banking sectors (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain) in the period 1993–2000 using a panel of 15,888 observations, identifying the fundamental elements affecting this margin. Our starting point is the methodology developed in the original study by Ho and Saunders [Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis XVI (1981) 581–600] and later extensions, but widened to take banks' operating costs explicitly into account. Also, unlike the usual practice in the literature, a direct measure of the degree of competition (Lerner index) in the different markets is used. The results show that the fall of margins in the European banking system is compatible with a relaxation of the competitive conditions (increase in market power and concentration), as this effect has been counteracted by a reduction of interest rate risk, credit risk, and operating costs.

The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements

Abstract: A company’s credit default swap spread is the cost per annum for protection against a default by the company. In this paper we analyze data on credit default swap spreads collected by a credit derivatives broker. We first examine the relationship between credit default spreads and bond yields and reach conclusions on the benchmark risk-free rate used by participants in the credit derivatives market. We then carry out a series of tests to explore the extent to which credit rating announcements by Moody’s are anticipated by participants in the credit default swap market.

Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements

Abstract: This paper analyzes the response of stock and credit default swap (CDS) markets to rating announcements made by the three major rating agencies during the period 2000–2002. Applying event study methodology, we examine whether and how strongly these markets respond to rating announcements in terms of abnormal returns and adjusted CDS spread changes. First, we find that both markets not only anticipate rating downgrades, but also reviews for downgrade by all three agencies. Second, a combined analysis of different rating events within and across agencies reveals that reviews for downgrade by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s exhibit the largest impact on both markets. Third, the magnitude of abnormal performance in both markets is influenced by the level of the old rating, previous rating events and, only in the CDS market, by the pre-event average rating level of all agencies.

Corporate cash holdings: An empirical investigation of UK companies

Abstract: This paper investigates the empirical determinants of corporate cash holdings for a sample of UK firms. We focus on the importance of managerial ownership among other corporate governance characteristics including board structure and ultimate controllers of companies. We present evidence of a significant non-monotonic relation between managerial ownership and cash holdings. In addition, we observe that the way in which managerial ownership exerts influence on cash holdings does not change with board composition and, in general, the presence of ultimate controllers. The results reveal that firms' growth opportunities, cash flows, liquid assets, leverage and bank debt are important in determining cash holdings. Our analysis also suggests that firm heterogeneity and endogeneity are crucial in analysing the cash structure of firms.

Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk

Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of the probability of default (PD) of bank loans. We focus the discussion on the role of a limited set of variables (collateral, type of lender and bank–borrower relationship) while controlling for the other explanatory variables. The study uses information on the more than three million loans entered into by Spanish credit institutions over a complete business cycle (1988–2000) collected by the Bank of Spain's Credit Register (Central de Informacion de Riesgos). We find that collateralised loans have a higher PD, loans granted by savings banks are riskier and, finally, that a close bank–borrower relationship increases the willingness to take more risk.

Foreign bank entry, deregulation and bank efficiency: Lessons from the Australian experience

Abstract: This study considers the impact of foreign bank entry on banking efficiency in Australia during the post-deregulation period 1988–2001. Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Indices and stochastic frontier analysis, we find foreign banks more efficient than domestic banks, which however did not result in superior profits. Major Australian banks have used size as a barrier to entry to new entrants. Furthermore, bank efficiency has increased post-deregulation and the competition resulting from diversity in bank types was important to prompt efficiency improvements. Finally, the recession of the early 1990s resulted in a distinct shift in the process of efficiency changes.

Productivity change in European banking: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric approaches

Abstract: This paper compares parametric and non-parametric estimates of productivity change in European banking between 1994 and 2000. Productivity change has also been further decomposed into technological change, or change in best practice, and efficiency change. Both the parametric and non-parametric approaches consistently identify those systems that have benefited most (and least) from productivity change during the 1990s. The results also suggest that (where found) productivity growth has mainly been brought about by improvements in technological change and there does not appear to have been `catch-up' by non-best-practice institutions. Competing methodologies sometimes identify conflicting findings for the sources of productivity for individual years. However, the two approaches generally do not yield markedly different results in terms of identifying the components of productivity growth in European banking during the 1990s.

How rating agencies achieve rating stability

Abstract: Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that some investors believe that rating agencies are relatively slow in adjusting their ratings. A well-accepted explanation for this perception on the timeliness of ratings is the through-the-cycle methodology that agencies use. According to Moody’s, through-the-cycle ratings are stable because they are intended to measure default risk over long investment horizons, and because they are changed only when agencies are confident that observed changes in a company’s risk profile are likely to be permanent. To verify this explanation, we quantify the impact of the long-term default horizon and the prudent migration policy on rating stability from the perspective of an investor – with no desire for rating stability. This is done by benchmarking agency ratings with a financial ratio-based (credit-scoring) agency-rating prediction model and (credit-scoring) default-prediction models of various time horizons. We also examine rating-migration practices. The final result is a better quantitative understanding of the through-the-cycle methodology. By varying the time horizon in the estimation of default-prediction models, we search for a best match with the agency-rating prediction model. Consistent with the agencies’ stated objectives, we conclude that agency ratings are focused on the long term. In contrast to one-year default prediction models, agency ratings place less weight on short-term indicators of credit quality. We also demonstrate that the focus of agencies on long investment horizons explains only part of the relative stability of agency ratings. The other aspect of through-the-cycle methodology – agency-rating migration policy – is an even more important factor underlying the stability of agency ratings. We find that rating migrations are triggered when the difference between the actual agency rating and the model predicted rating exceeds a certain threshold level. When rating migrations are triggered, agencies adjust their ratings only partially, consistent with the known serial dependency of agency-rating migrations.

The impact of negative cash flow and influential observations on investment–cash flow sensitivity estimates

Abstract: Kaplan and Zingales [Quart. J. Econ. 112 (1997) 169] and Clearly [J. Finance 54 (2) (1999) 673] diverge from the large literature on investment–cash flow sensitivity by showing that investment is most sensitive to cash flow for the least financially constrained firms. We examine if this result can be explained by the fact that when firms are in sufficiently bad shape (incurring cash losses), investment cannot respond to cash flow. We find that while Cleary's results can be explained by such negative cash flow observations, the Kaplan–Zingales results are driven more by a few influential observations in a small sample. We also record a decline in investment–cash flow sensitivity over the 1977–1996 period, particularly for the most constrained firms.

Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks

Abstract: We test how active management of bank credit risk exposure through the loan sales market affects capital structure, lending, profits, and risk. We find that banks that rebalance their loan portfolio exposures by both buying and selling loans – that is, banks that use the loan sales market for risk management purposes rather than to alter their holdings of loans – hold less capital than other banks; they also make more risky loans (loans to businesses) as a percentage of total assets than other banks. Holding size, leverage and lending activities constant, banks active in the loan sales market have lower risk and higher profits than other banks. Our results suggest that banks that improve their ability to manage credit risk may operate with greater leverage and may lend more of their assets to risky borrowers. Thus, the benefits of advances in risk management in banking may be greater credit availability, rather than reduced risk in the banking system.

Factors affecting bank risk taking: Evidence from Japan

Abstract: Using recent data from Japan, this paper examines empirically the determinants of risk taking at commercial banks. We find that the implementation of the capital adequacy requirement reduced risk taking at commercial banks. The acceptance of retired government officials on banks’ boards has an insignificant effect on bank risk. The relationship between the stable shareholders’ ownership and bank risk is nonlinear; the risk decreases initially with the ownership by stable shareholders, and then increases as the asset substitution effect dominates the effect of managerial entrenchment on bank risk. The decline of franchise value increases bank risk.

The short-term effects of foreign bank entry on domestic bank behaviour : Does economic development matter?

Abstract: This paper investigates the short-term effects of foreign bank entry on the behaviour of the domestic banking sector. We hypothesise that these effects are dependent on the level of economic development of the host country. Our investigation shows that at lower levels of economic development foreign bank entry is generally associated with higher costs and margins for domestic banks. At higher levels of economic development the effects appear to be less clear: foreign bank entry is either associated with a fall of costs, profits and margins of domestic banks, or is not associated with changes in these domestic bank variables.

Determining management behaviour in European banking

Abstract: This paper determines management behaviour for European savings banks between 1990 and 1998. Following the Granger causality approach of Berger and DeYoung [Journal of Banking and Finance 21 (1997) 849], we examine the intertemporal relationships between loan loss provision, efficiency and capitalisation for European banks. In so doing, we provide a robustness test of the Berger and DeYoung results for US banks. The possible relationships between the variables imply different modes of management behaviour namely bad management, bad luck, skimping, and moral hazard behaviour. The econometric results suggest that the most pressing management problem for European banks is bad management. Generally speaking, the European findings are inconsistent with previous results from the US. One notable difference in management behaviour between European and US banks is that the former do not appear to engage in skimping behaviour. The European results are sensitive to the number of lags included in the model.

Are credit ratings procyclical

Abstract: This paper studies the influence of the state of the business cycle on credit ratings. In particular, we assess whether rating agencies are excessively procyclical in their assignment of ratings. Our analysis is based on a model of ratings determination that takes into account factors that measure the business and financial risks of firms, in addition to indicators of macroeconomic conditions. Utilizing annual data on all US firms rated by Standard & Poor’s, we find that ratings do not generally exhibit excess sensitivity to the business cycle. In addition, we document that previously reported findings of a secular tightening of ratings standards are not robust to a more complete accounting of systematic changes to measures of risk.

Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs

Abstract: We use a one-factor credit risk model to provide new estimates of stationary default probabilities and asset correlations in two large samples of French and German Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Results show that, on average, SMEs are riskier than large businesses; and the asset correlations in the SME population are very weak (1–3% on average) and decrease with size. On average, the relationship between PDs and asset correlations is not negative, as assumed by Basel II, but positive, especially at the industry level, in the two countries. It is also possible to distinguish different segments inside the SMEs’ population: at least between very small and small SMEs and large SMEs.

The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic model of optimal bank capital in which the bank optimizes over costs associated with failure, holding capital, and flows of external capital. The solution to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimization problem is related to period-by-period value at risk (var) in which the optimal probability of failure is endogenously determined. Over a cycle, var is positively correlated with optimal flows of external capital, but negatively correlated with optimal net changes in capital and the optimal level of total capital. Analysis of this pattern suggests that a regulatory minimum requirement based on var, if binding, is likely to be procyclical. The model points to several ways of reducing this problem. For example, a var-based requirement makes more sense if it is applied to external capital flows than if it is applied to the total level of capital. US commercial bank data since 1984 are generally consistent with the model.

Cross-border bank mergers: What lures the rare animal?

Abstract: Although domestic mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the financial services industry have increased steadily over the past two decades, international M&As were until recently relatively rare. Moreover, the share of cross-border mergers in the banking industry is low compared with other industries. This paper uses a novel dataset of over 3000 mergers that took place between 1985 and 2001 to analyze the determinants of international bank mergers. We test the extent to which information costs and regulations hold back merger activity. Our results suggest that information costs significantly impede cross-border bank mergers. Regulations also influence cross-border bank merger activity. Hence, policy makers can create environments that encourage cross-border activity, but information cost barriers must be overcome even in (legally) integrated markets.

Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models

Abstract: We compare forecasts of the realized volatility of the pound, mark and yen exchange rates against the dollar, calculated from intraday rates, over horizons ranging from one day to three months. Our forecasts are obtained from a short memory ARMA model, a long memory ARFIMA model, a GARCH model and option implied volatilities. We find intraday rates provide the most accurate forecasts for the one-day and one-week forecast horizons while implied volatilities are at least as accurate as the historical forecasts for the one-month and three-month horizons. The superior accuracy of the historical forecasts, relative to implied volatilities, comes from the use of high frequency returns, and not from a long memory specification. We find significant incremental information in historical forecasts, beyond the implied volatility information, for forecast horizons up to one week.

The national market impact of sovereign rating changes

Abstract: This study investigates the aggregate stock market impact of sovereign rating changes. Consistent with evidence pertaining to company credit rating changes, we report that rating downgrades have a negative wealth impact on market returns. Moreover, we find that a downgrade impacts negatively on both the domestic stock market and the dollar value of the country’s currency. Interestingly, of the four credit rating agencies examined, only Standard & Poors and Fitch rating downgrades result in significant market falls. Finally, we can find no evidence that emerging markets are particularly sensitive to rating changes or that markets react more severely to multiple rating changes.

Start-up investment with scarce venture capital support

Abstract: Venture capitalists, representing informed capital, screen, monitor and advise start-up entrepreneurs. The paper reports three new results on venture capital (VC) finance and the evolution of the VC industry. First, there is an optimal VC portfolio size with a trade-off between the number of companies and the value of managerial advice. Second, advice tends to be diluted when the industry expands and VC skills remain scarce in the short-run. The delayed entry of experienced VCs eventually restores the quality of advice and leads to more focused company portfolios. Third, as a welfare result, VCs tend to provide too little advisory effort and to invest in too few companies. Testable implications are also discussed.

Public information arrival and volatility of intraday stock returns

Abstract: This study employs firm-specific announcements as a proxy for information flows and investigates the information–volatility relation using high-frequency data from the Australian Stock Exchange. Our analysis reveals a positive and significant impact of the arrival rate of the selected news variable on the conditional variance of stock returns, even after controlling for the potential effects of trading volume and high opening volatility. Furthermore, the inclusion of the news variable in the conditional variance equation of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model also reduces volatility persistence, especially with intraday data. Combined with the evidence that news arrivals display a very strong pattern of autocorrelation, our results are consistent with the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis, which attributes conditional heteroscedasticity of stock returns to time-dependence in the news arrival process.

The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics

Abstract: Most financial risk regulations assume that asset returns are exogenous, where risk is estimated from historical data. This assumption fails to take into account the feedback effect of trading decisions on prices. We investigate the consequences of risk constrained trading by means of simulations of a general equilibrium model with a value-at-risk constraint and compare the results to the case when risk constraints are not present. Prices are lower on average in the presence of risk regulation, while volatility is higher. Risk regulation may have the perverse effect of exacerbating price fluctuations.

Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time

Abstract: Previous studies have reported mixed results regarding the success of technical trading rules in currency markets. Abnormal returns were observed in many studies using data up to the mid 1980s, while more recent studies generally report less success for technical trading rules. This paper tests whether moving average trading rule profits have declined over the period from 1971 to 2000. If so, previous profits may represent a temporary inefficiency that has since been eliminated in the currency markets. The hypothesis is tested using 18 exchange rate series over a longer time period than in previous studies. Rules are optimized for successive 5-year in-sample periods from 1971 to 1995 and tested over subsequent 5-year out-of-sample periods. Results show that risk-adjusted trading rule profits have declined over time-from an average of over 3% in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about zero in the 1990s. Thus, market inefficiencies reported in previous studies may have been only temporary inefficiencies.

Predicting bank performance with financial forecasts: A case of Taiwan commercial banks

Abstract: Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been used as a tool for evaluating past accomplishments in the banking industry. However, due to a time lag, the results usually arrive too late for the evaluated banking institutions to react timely. This paper makes advanced predictions of the performances of 24 commercial banks in Taiwan based on their financial forecasts. The forecasts based on uncertain financial data are represented in ranges, instead of as single values. A DEA model for interval data is formulated to predict the efficiency. The predictions of the efficiency scores are also presented as ranges. We found that all the efficiency scores calculated from the data contained in the financial statements published afterwards fall within the corresponding predicted ranges of the efficiency scores which we had calculated from the financial forecasts. The results also show that even the bad performances of the two banks taken over by the Financial Restructuring Fund of Taiwan could actually be predicted in advance using this study.

Correlated default with incomplete information

Abstract: The recent accounting scandals at Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco were related to the misrepresentation of liabilities. We provide a structural model of correlated multi-firm default, in which public bond investors are uncertain about the liability-dependent barrier at which individual firms default. Investors form prior beliefs on the barriers, which they update with the default status information of firms arriving over time. Whenever a firm suddenly defaults, investors learn about the default threshold of closely associated business partner firms. This updating leads to “contagious” jumps in credit spreads of business partners. We characterize joint default probabilities and the default dependence structure as assessed by investors, where we emphasize the the modeling of dependence with copulas. A case study based on Brownian asset dynamics illustrates our results.

Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices

Abstract: Credit migration matrices are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications; their accurate estimation is therefore critical. We explore two approaches: cohort and two variants of duration – one imposing, the other relaxing time homogeneity – and the resulting differences, both statistically through matrix norms and economically using a credit portfolio model. We propose a new metric for comparing these matrices based on singular values and apply it to credit rating histories of S&P rated US firms from 1981–2002. We show that the migration matrices have been increasing in “size” since the mid-1990s, with 2002 being the “largest” in the sense of being the most dynamic. We develop a testing procedure using bootstrap techniques to assess statistically the differences between migration matrices as represented by our metric. We demonstrate that it can matter substantially which estimation method is chosen: economic credit risk capital differences implied by different estimation techniques can be as large as differences between economic regimes, recession vs. expansion. Ignoring the efficiency gain inherent in the duration methods by using the cohort method instead is more damaging than imposing a (possibly false) assumption of time homogeneity.

Business environment and the incorporation decision

Abstract: Using firm-level data from 52 countries, the authors investigate how a country's institutions and business environment affect firms' organizational choices and the effects of organizational form on access to finance and growth. They find that businesses are more likely to choose the corporate form in countries with developed financial sectors and efficient legal systems, strong shareholder and creditor rights, low regulatory burdens and corporate taxes, and efficient bankruptcy processes. Corporations report fewer financing, legal, and regulatory obstacles than unincorporated firms, and this advantage is greater in countries with more developed institutions and favorable business environments. The authors find some evidence of higher growth of incorporated businesses in countries with good financial and legal institutions.

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico

Abstract: This paper investigates the hypotheses that the recently established Mexican stock index futures market effectively serves the price discovery function, and that the introduction of futures trading has provoked volatility in the underlying spot market. We test both hypotheses simultaneously with daily data from Mexico in the context of a modified EGARCH model that also incorporates possible cointegration between the futures and spot markets. The evidence supports both hypotheses, suggesting that the futures market in Mexico is a useful price discovery vehicle, although futures trading has also been a source of instability for the spot market. Several managerial implications are derived and discussed.

The effect of organizational structure on efficiency: Evidence from the Spanish insurance industry

Abstract: This paper provides new information on the effects of organizational structure on efficiency by analyzing Spanish stock and mutual insurers over the period 1989–1997. We test the efficient structure hypothesis, which predicts that the market will sort organizational forms into market segments where they have comparative advantages, and the expense preference hypothesis, which predicts that mutuals will be less efficient than stocks. Technical, cost, and revenue frontiers are estimated using data envelopment analysis. The results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production, cost, and revenue frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies. In cost and revenue efficiency, stocks of all sizes dominate mutuals in the production of stock output vectors, and smaller mutuals dominate stocks in the production of mutual output vectors. Larger mutuals are neither dominated by nor dominant over stocks in the cost and revenue comparisons. Thus, large mutuals appear to be vulnerable to competition from stock insurers in Spain. Overall, the results are consistent with the efficient structure hypothesis but are generally not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis.