Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2023"

Key research challenges to supporting farm transitions to agroecology in advanced economies. A review

Abstract: Abstract In response to the sustainability issues that agriculture faces in advanced economies, agroecology has gained increasing relevance in scientific, political, and social debates. This has promoted discussion about transitions to agroecology, which represents a significant advancement. Accordingly, it has become a growing field of research. We reviewed the literature on and in support of farm transitions to agroecology in advanced economies in order to identify key research challenges and suggest innovative research paths. Our findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Research that supports exploration and definition of desired futures, whether based on future-oriented modeling or expert-based foresight approaches, should more explicitly include the farm level. It should stimulate the creativity and design ability of farmers and other stakeholders, and also address issues of representation and power among them. (2) Research that creates awareness and assesses farms before, during or after transition requires more holistic and dynamic assessment frameworks. These frameworks need to be more flexible to adapt to the diversity of global and local challenges. Their assessment should explicitly include uncertainty due to the feedback loops and emergent properties of transitions. (3) Research that analyzes and supports farms during transition should focus more on the dynamics of change processes by valuing what happens on the farms. Research should especially give more credence to on-farm experiments conducted by farmers and develop new tools and methods (e.g., for strategic monitoring) to support these transitions. This is the first review of scientific studies of farm transitions to agroecology. Overall, the review indicates that these transitions challenge the system boundaries, temporal horizons, and sustainability dimensions that agricultural researchers usually consider. In this context, farm transitions to agroecology require changes in the current organization and funding of research in order to encourage longer term and more adaptive configurations.

Transformative Vision Assessment and 3-D Printing Futures: A New Approach of Technology Assessment to Address Grand Societal Challenges

Abstract: Grand societal challenges (GSCs) are complex phenomena. With technological innovation being often seen as a solution to them, technology assessment (TA) as problem-oriented research practice is challenged to reflexively address the relationship between GSC and technologies. The complexity involved requires that research and innovation are reflexively embedded into societal dynamics from early on. This is an aspect that contemporary innovation governance discourses in TA, “responsible research and innovation” and “anticipatory governance” highlight. This article elaborates the new TA approach of “transformative vision assessment.” It aims to enhance anticipatory competences, reflexivity, and responsibility of actors in science and society through modulating the visions that influence technological development. The approach responds to the dominant visions in public and scientific discourse that promise a technology-driven reorganization of society, e.g., a fourth industrial revolution, and fail to meet the complexity of GSC. Thus, transformative vision assessment analyses technological visions and modulates visionary discourse through adding sociotechnical complexity and fostering dialogue between science and society. This article uses a case study on scalable three-dimensional (3-D) printing to exemplify how visionary communication can be transformed to better address the complexity of GSC, with the focus of the case on 3-D printing and inclusion and sustainability.

Reactions of the public transport sector to the COVID-19 pandemic. Insights from Belgium

Abstract: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, public transport has been one of the hardest hit transport modes, losing ridership due to fear of contagion. This can partially be explained by the lack of preparedness in the sector to a pandemic scenario, as only few cities had epidemic contingency plans for the transport sector. To anticipate disruptions caused by future crises, we look at the preparedness and the response to COVID-19 by the public transport sector in Belgium. We interview all public transport operators in Belgium and analyze the interviews through the disaster management framework. We also aim to distill the lessons that can be learned from the pandemic to increase resilience in future public transport planning. We find that no operator in Belgium had contingency plans ready for a pandemic scenario, but that other plans were deployed to adapt their offer to COVID-19 conditions. Although all operators lost a significant part of ridership, their offer was maintained throughout the crisis, albeit at a decreased level for some operators. The availability of reliable and real-time data is identified as an important learning by the operators, as well as the ability to identify a core response team in case of a crisis. COVID-19 was seen by the operators as a learning platform to face future crises and highlighted the need to increase reactivity through better preparedness and data availability. We recommend the structural use of foresight methods through for example scenario planning to increase the preparedness of operators in the case of future disruptions.

Business optimism and the innovation-profitability nexus: Introducing the COVID-19 adaptable capacity framework

Abstract: In this paper we develop a novel multi-stage integrative framework for technology foresight-planning. This framework integrates econometric analysis and a technology foresight procedure to predict: (i) the most COVID-19 resilient industries at the national level; and (ii) the most adversely affected industries (due to prior investment in innovation) that requires public support. Our econometric results show that the pandemic has induced a ‘double-edge sword’ effect of innovation on firm’s COVID-19 adaptable capacity (CAC). Costly innovation undertaken before the pandemic can be bad for firms if it compounds the problem of declining post-pandemic outbreak profit and optimism. Contrarily, firm level innovation improves firm’s CAC as the prior innovators’ profitability are found to have above-even odds of rebounding quickly post-pandemic outbreak. Our empirical analysis focuses mostly on developing economies, where firms are most likely implementing only incremental (non-frontier) innovation and thus our results should be generalized with caution.

Conceptualizing a Methodology for Cultural Heritage Futures: Using Futurist Hindsight to Make ‘Known Unknowns’ Knowable

Abstract: In a broad conceptual framing, cultural heritage is the result of humankind’s interactions with their environment and one another, both in its tangible and intangible expressions. Cultural heritage management is by nature a retrospective discipline, as the assessment and evaluation of cultural significance of heritage assets requires the passage of time. Practitioners often struggle with the evaluation and management of very modern and contemporary heritage items. There is a need to examine whether current approaches and practices are fit for purpose. Current cultural heritage theory abounds with the concept of heritage stewardship with the embedded futurist stance that we should hand on our heritage in good shape to the next generation, yet all approaches are retrospective and rooted in the values of the present. This paper examines to what extent stewardship, as well as two other futurist concepts, the precautionary principle and strategic foresight, are suitable tools for heritage management. Based on that review, this paper then conceptualizes and proposes an assessment model that positions the valuer into a strategic foresight-derived, modelled future ‘reality’ at a 15 to 30-year horizon, which then allows the valuer to apply standard heritage hindsight assessment methodology to contemporary heritage items.

Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats

Abstract: Introduction: The world is facing the devastating impact a biological event can have on human health, economies, and political stability. COVID-19 has revealed that national governments and the international community are woefully unprepared to respond to pandemics—underscoring our shared vulnerability to future catastrophic biological threats that could meet or exceed the severe consequences of the current pandemic. This study examines potential threats related to deliberate Russian military use and misuse of the tools of modern biology or an accident caused by a CBRN event evolving rapidly in the highly volatile political environment in and around Ukraine and other conflicts. Method: A participatory foresight, co-creative, future and transformation-oriented methodology was used to structure a transformative model for a disciplined exploration of scenarios to confront complex challenges and facilitate improved outcomes. Foresight helps to evaluate current policy priorities and potential new policy directions; see how the impact of possible policy decisions may combine with other developments; inform, support and link policy-making in and across a range of sectors; identify future directions, emerging technologies, new societal demands and challenges; and anticipate future developments, disruptive events, risks and opportunities. Results: The study found that the “mitigation scenarios” are based on the “Confront, Regulate, Overcome” metamodel combined with the “Security, Rescue, Care” response modalities. These require the cooperation/coordination of law enforcement forces along with military forces, fire departments and civil security resources, hospital and first-line responder teams, in order to appropriately address populations, assets and territories issues elicited by the identified threat, which drives key decision makers’ tasks at the strategic level. Conclusion: The participatory foresight exercise demonstrated gaps in national and international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness architectures highlighted by the challenges of the Ukraine war—exploring opportunities for better cooperation to improve prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological events, and generate actionable recommendations for the international community.

The effect of strategic intelligence, effective decision-making and strategic flexibility on logistics performance

Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the impact of strategic intelligence on strategic flexibility, in addition, to identify the effective decision-making on Logistics Performance. Nevertheless, partial least squares (Smart -PLS- 4.0.8.7) are used to examine the hypotheses, the results indicate that strategic intelligence (organized thinking, strategic vision, foresight, partnership, and motivation) significantly affect Strategic flexibility. In addition, effective decision-making mediates the effect of strategic intelligence and strategic flexibility towards the performance of logistics companies. Moreover, the influence of effective decision-making on logistics performance is therefore clear and significant towards logistics performance. However, the study supports managers in enhancing sustainability practices in logistics organizations while also offering policy guidance to decision-makers.

Scenario-Based Foresight in the Age of Digital Technologies and AI

Abstract: Abstract Scenario-based foresight is used less and less in the corporate world despite continued high satisfaction with the obtained results. In the age of digitalization, many companies feel increasingly forced to short-termism instead of strategic planning. However, emerging digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), represent a promising approach to cope with the traditional challenges of scenario-based foresight as well as new challenges added by digitalization. Therefore, this work-in-progress paper identifies and analyzes use cases for scenario-based foresight with digital technologies employing a systematic analysis of the relevant literature. In the paper at hand, we show that the use of digital technologies for improving the performance of scenario-based foresight is an emerging field. We identify 14 so-called use cases, i.e., unique goal-oriented applications of digital technologies for scenario-based foresight. In general, the use cases show that currently digital technologies can enhance, not substitute the capabilities of scenario-based foresight practitioners. Digital technologies primarily support the analysis of large amounts of data, e.g., for collecting futuristic data and identifying key influence factors. However, activities that require implicit knowledge and creativity, like the interpretation of scenarios, are currently still left to humans.

AI‐assisted scenario generation for strategic planning

Abstract: This “reflections from practice” piece explores some of the implications of emerging, artificially intelligent tools for the futures and foresight prac-ademic community. The authors provide background on these emerging, artificially intelligent tools, and explore, with special emphasis on scenarios, a specific tool named “Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer” (hereafter, ChatGPT). The authors examine the utility of scenarios generated by artificial intelligence (AI) and explore whether or not the futures and foresight prac-ademic community should selectively embrace advances in AI to assist in the generation of scenarios. In particular, the authors will consider (1) the utility of using scenarios generated completely by AI, (2) whether what is produced, in fact, constitute scenarios, based on conventional definitions, and (3) assess the utility of using AI to assist in the production of scenarios. At this point in time, artificially intelligent tools can now generate numerous scenarios on seemingly any topic at essentially zero cost to the user. Still, the authors insist that the utility of those scenarios is largely predicated on the user's ability to coax the appropriate “raw material” from the artificially intelligent bot, which implicates, the authors contend, that such bots can usefully provide base material for the development of scenarios but are unlikely to fully eclipse scenarists in the production of scenarios. Additionally, the authors recommend that the futures and foresight prac-ademic community pay especially close attention to artificially intelligent tools for novel insights with regard to the differences in human cognition and, in this case, the logic of large language model outputs.

The role of visioning in business network strategizing

Abstract: Visioning the future is an essential aspect of strategizing. However, how managers make sense of their networked business environment, future changes in it, and how this visioning informs their interaction and networking has hardly been explored. Drawing on organizational foresight and business network research, we enhance the visioning concept by conducting an abductive qualitative case study on its role in business network strategizing. By comparing forward-looking and backward-looking perspectives of managers in companies within a particular business network, the study reveals what managers can foresee, what limits their visioning, and to what extent visioning informs network strategizing. Our findings suggest that visioning helps managers to openly contemplate the future, to envisage structural changes, detect probable trends, and form strategic intentions, but individual cognitive frameworks and network constraints limit their visioning. The study contributes to the current sensemaking view of network strategizing by proposing a conceptual model where visioning forms an important step in between reflection and networking, and by showing how managers consciously prepare for the future.

Participatory Design and Public Policies: The Case of the General Regional Waste Plan in Valle d’Aosta (Italy)

Abstract: Waste management is one of the most strategic areas of regional policy planning. The impact of decisions such as the allocation of industrial waste treatment plants and waste collection strategies can affect the economic structure and quality of life of territories. The effectiveness of regulatory and organisational arrangements of Regional Waste Plans is linked to the availability of technologies and material infrastructure, but also to social consensus and behaviours. On this level, participatory planning conducted through foresight techniques plays an increasing role. The article presents an innovative case carried out in Valle d’Aosta in 2021, with the aim of promoting the participatory methodology experimented and the institutionalisation of such applications in strategic waste planning processes. The process involved 35 different stakeholders (unions, businesses, schools, trade, environmental associations, etc.) in structured consultations based on the principle of building a shared transition to 2030. In particular, the project was effective in broadening the participation of civil society in the area, in making the plan’s objectives more ambitious, and in fostering the creation of a collaborative network between public, market and third sector actors.

Strategic scenarios of post-war recovery of sustainable development of Poltava region of Ukraine: innovative and environmental aspects

Abstract: The state and strategic scenarios of restoration of sustainable development of Poltava region of Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. To develop a strategic plan for the recovery of the Poltava region, a modern methodology of strategizing (scientific and strategic foresight) is used according to the principle “the future is determined by the trajectory into the future” and three strategic scenarios have been developed until 2027: realistic, optimistic and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries, which correspond to the average annual growth rates of real GRP -4.94, -0.72 and 4.1%. The contribution of innovative factors to the economic growth of the region was determined using the modified Cobb-Douglas function and the Solow residual method, which prove the averaged contributions to economic growth: scientific and technological progress STP -3.7; labor 3.1; capital 0.38; production manufacturability 1.57; innovations 0.31%. The strategic dynamics of indicators of innovation and environmental safety on the trajectory of sustainable development are scientifically substantiated and the main threats are identified. The proposed methodology of adaptive response to threats of the environmental subsystem gives possibilities to preserve its stability and balanced sustainable development.

State asset management paradigm in the quasi-public sector and environmental sustainability: Insights from the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract: This study aims to improve state regulation and administration of quasi-state sector of environmental sustainability in the Republic of Kazakhstan within the social sustainability paradigm. This study is due to the need to search the balance of business interests, and efficient use of resources and their conservation on a global scale. The issues of state asset management are identified and ways to resolve them are proposed based on the corporate foresight methodology using the strategic planning mechanism. As a result of the analysis of the tools introduced into the practice of leading transnational corporations, the main directions are identified in which it is advisable to take measures aimed at streamlining and optimizing the quasi-public sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan. This article presents proposals for improving state regulation and administration of quasi-public companies in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The outcomes of this study can assist policymakers, experts, and stakeholders in gaining awareness about these problems while simultaneously improving sustainability practices.

Decision making and mental imagery: A conceptual synthesis and new research directions

Abstract: ABSTRACT This paper introduces a conceptual synthesis of theoretical ideas investigating the relationship between decision making and mental imagery. We claim that the generation of mental images may play a pivotal role in decision making because imaginative foresight allows an event to be pre-experienced and consequences of different choice alternatives to be “tried out.” Moreover, we provide evidence that mental imagery can be considered a source of emotions that regulate decision making and risk perception. We also propose principles describing the mutual relationships between mental imagery and decision making that allow for formulating testable hypotheses. Finally, we discuss open issues that arise in the context of the idea that mental imagery informs decision making. They concern the relationship between mental imagery and emotions, functional and dysfunctional consequences of mental imagery, spontaneous vs. enforced generation of mental imagery, and the role of imagery-based approach/withdrawal motivation in terminating the decision-making process.

Four Futures for Occupational Safety and Health

Abstract: Rapid changes to the nature of work have challenged the capacity of existing occupational safety and health (OSH) systems to ensure safe and productive workplaces. An effective response will require an expanded focus that includes new tools for anticipating and preparing for an uncertain future. Researchers at the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) have adopted the practice of strategic foresight to structure inquiry into how the future will impact OSH. Rooted in futures studies and strategic management, foresight creates well-researched and informed future scenarios that help organizations better prepare for potential challenges and take advantage of new opportunities. This paper summarizes the inaugural NIOSH strategic foresight project, which sought to promote institutional capacity in applied foresight while exploring the future of OSH research and practice activities. With multidisciplinary teams of subject matter experts at NIOSH, we undertook extensive exploration and information synthesis to inform the development of four alternative future scenarios for OSH. We describe the methods we developed to craft these futures and discuss their implications for OSH, including strategic responses that can serve as the basis for an action-oriented roadmap toward a preferred future.

Forum: Making Peace with Un-Certainty: Reflections on the Role of Digital Technology in Peace Processes beyond the Data Hype

Abstract: Recent years have seen the acceleration of data- and evidence-based approaches in support of peace processes, creating a renewed confidence that conflicts can be predicted, known, and resolved, based on objective information about the world. However, new technologies employed by conflict parties, stakeholders, and those who aim to make or build peace have also made peace processes less ascertainable, intelligible, and predictable. Technology can thus create both more certainty and uncertainty in (and about) peace processes. This forum article presents a first collaborative attempt to explore how the use of technology by conflict parties and peacebuilding actors influences these dynamics. We examine various fields of engagement, ranging from conflict prevention to peace mediation, peacekeeping, and longer-term peacebuilding. Our discussion engages with a variety of related activities, including predictive analysis and foresight, conflict analysis, cease-fire monitoring, early warning and early action, and problem-solving and trust-building dialogues. We suggest approaching un-certainty as a spectrum between uncertainty and certainty that can be studied across epistemic, ontological, and normative dimensions, thus inviting further academic research and policy reflection. The article is coauthored by scholars and current or former practitioners and underlines the necessity, benefits, and feasibility of research–practice exchanges on this topic.

The Application Field of CIB

Abstract: The most frequent field of application of CIB is the development of qualitative scenarios. This chapter therefore addresses the role scenarios play in preparing for the future in science, business, politics, and administration and the possibilities that CIB offers here. However, this is not a general textbook on scenarios. The many aspects about their history, forms, functions, interpretations, and controversies are only briefly touched on cursorily here. A look at scenario methodology is nevertheless necessary for the purpose of the book to make clear which understanding of foresight and of the role of scenarios in it the method concept of CIB is based on.

How Neurotech Start-Ups Envision Ethical Futures: Demarcation, Deferral, Delegation

Abstract: Abstract Like many ethics debates surrounding emerging technologies, neuroethics is increasingly concerned with the private sector. Here, entrepreneurial visions and claims of how neurotechnology innovation will revolutionize society—from brain-computer-interfaces to neural enhancement and cognitive phenotyping—are confronted with public and policy concerns about the risks and ethical challenges related to such innovations. But while neuroethics frameworks have a longer track record in public sector research such as the U.S. BRAIN Initiative, much less is known about how businesses—and especially start-ups—address ethics in tech development. In this paper, we investigate how actors in the field frame and enact ethics as part of their innovative R&D processes and business models. Drawing on an empirical case study on direct-to-consumer (DTC) neurotechnology start-ups, we find that actors engage in careful boundary-work to anticipate and address public critique of their technologies, which allows them to delineate a manageable scope of their ethics integration. In particular, boundaries are drawn around four areas: the technology’s actual capability, purpose, safety and evidence-base. By drawing such lines of demarcation, we suggest that start-ups make their visions of ethical neurotechnology in society more acceptable, plausible and desirable, favoring their innovations while at the same time assigning discrete responsibilities for ethics. These visions establish a link from the present into the future, mobilizing the latter as promissory place where a technology’s benefits will materialize and to which certain ethical issues can be deferred. In turn, the present is constructed as a moment in which ethical engagement could be delegated to permissive regulatory standards and scientific authority. Our empirical tracing of the construction of ‘ethical realities’ in and by start-ups offers new inroads for ethics research and governance in tech industries beyond neurotechnology.

Foresight and strategic decision-making framework from artificial intelligence technology development to utilization activities in small-and-medium-sized enterprises

Abstract: Purpose This study aims to predict artificial intelligence (AI) technology development and the impact of AI utilization activity on companies, to identify AI strategies dealing with the broad innovation activity of AI, and to construct the strategic decision-making framework of AI strategies for a small- and medium-sized enterprise (hereafter SME), to improve strategic decision-making practices of AI strategy in SMEs. Design/methodology/approach This study used the multiple methods on the design of two data collection stages. The first stage is an expertise-based approach. It organized the three groups of expert panels and conducted the Delphi survey on them in combination with the brainstorming of technology, innovation and strategy in the fourth industrial revolution. The second stage is in the complement approach of expertise-based results. It used the literature review to involve the analysis of academic and practical papers, reports and audio materials relating to technology development, innovation types and strategies of AI. Additionally, it organized the four semi-structured interviews. Finally, this study used the mind-map and decision tree to conduct each analysis and synthesize each analytical result. Findings This study identifies the precondition and four paths of AI technological development classifying into specialized AI, AI convergence with other technologies, general AI and AI control methods. It captures the impact of non- and technological innovation through AI on companies. Second, it identifies and classifies the six types of AI strategy: the bystander, capability-building, capability-holding, management-enhancing, market-enhancing and new-market-creating strategy. By using the decision tree, it constructs the strategic decision-making framework containing six AI strategies. Actionable points, strategic priorities and relevant instruments are suggested. Research limitations/implications The strategic decision-making framework covering from AI technology development to utilization in a SME can help understand the strategic behaviours in SMEs. The typology of six AI strategies implies the broad innovation behaviours in SMEs. It can lead to further research to understand the pattern of strategic and innovation behaviour on AI. Practical implications This practical study can help executives, managers and engineers in SMEs to develop their strategic practices through the strategic decision framework and six AI strategies. Originality/value This practical study elicits the six types of AI strategy and constructs the strategic decision-making framework of six AI strategies from AI technology development to utilization. It can contribute to improving the practices of strategic decision-making in SMEs.

Ermanno Grinzato: a survey on thermophysical properties assessment

Abstract: In this work, the direct contribution and the inspiring activity of Ermanno Grinzato are resumed, focusing on the field of thermophysical properties evaluation. The main branches, followed in more than 30 years of research for the development of the InfraRed thermography technique, are reported and related to the scientific and industrial panorama at the time of their introduction. Those branches witness the spirit of excitement and the foresight of the solutions proposed, developed and adopted in the laboratory of the National Research Council in Padova. That laboratory was in a broad sense the ‘Alma Mater’ of a generation of researchers that have been working in the InfraRed field.

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict organizational agility

Abstract: Since the pandemic organizations have been required to build agility to manage risks, stakeholder engagement, improve capabilities and maturity levels to deliver on strategy. Not only is there a requirement to improve performance, a focus on employee engagement and increased use of technology have surfaced as important factors to remain competitive in the new world. Consideration of the strategic horizon, strategic foresight and support structures is required to manage critical factors for the formulation, execution and transformation of strategy. Strategic foresight and Artificial Intelligence modelling are ways to predict an organizations future agility and potential through modelling of attributes, characteristics, practices, support structures, maturity levels and other aspects of future change. The application of this can support the development of required new competencies, skills and capabilities, use of tools and develop a culture of adaptation to improve engagement and performance to successfully deliver on strategy. In this paper we apply an Artificial Intelligence model to predict an organizations level of future agility that can be used to proactively make changes to support improving the level of agility. We also explore the barriers and benefits of improved organizational agility. The research data was collected from 44 respondents in public and private Australian industry sectors. These research findings together with findings from previous studies identify practices and characteristics that contribute to organizational agility for success. This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse of these principles, practices, attributes and characteristics that will help overcome some of the barriers for organizations with limited resources to build a framework and culture of agility to deliver on strategy in a changing world.

Forecasting the Thailand housing price indexA case study on condo HPI during the COVID-19

Abstract: HPI (house price index) measures the price development of houses sold to households. And it measures the price as a percentage change from some specific start date, which is treated as the benchmark with the index at 100. In another word, HPI reflects the housing market fluctuation in some respects. Moreover, real estate is a good type of investment for people for avoiding various risks. Hence, under the global rampant of COVID-19, forecasting the possible short-term floating of HPI would offer some foresight to the residential market both on individual and policy sides. In this paper, five kinds of models were constructed with the data before Thailand reopened (1st Jul 2020) and forecasting for the followed the third quarter HPI. Lastly, the capacity of every model will be compared by an error matrix. And the experiments demonstrated multiple regression model, based on accuracy, performs relatively better than the other four models.