Showing papers on "Judgement published in 1977"
798 citations
TL;DR: A progress report is presented of on-going research efforts concerning human decision making under uncertainty and risk and human problem solving and learning processes on the one hand, and machine learning, large scale programming systems, and novel programming techniques on the other.
Abstract: A progress report is presented of on-going research efforts concerning human decision making under uncertainty and risk and human problem solving and learning processes on the one hand, and machine learning, large scale programming systems, and novel programming techniques on the other. There has also been interest in how humans make deductive and inductive inferences and form and optimize heuristic rules, and how machines can reach similar results. Although the vehicle of these investigations has been the game of poker, a conceptual framework has been provided that should have a fairly wide range of applicability. The models of human judgement, choice, and decision making are incorporated in a large scale complex program. They represent both descriptive and normative theories of behavior. An interactive game environment has been recently established which, besides its usefulness for experiments in game playing, enables humans to construct machine strategies “on-line” in a question answering, advice taking mode.
68 citations
TL;DR: In a study of 551 initial graduate recruitment interviews, 103 interviewers provided a general evaluation of each interviewee and indicated how much they liked each applicant personally, and rated his intelligence as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: In a study of 551 initial graduate recruitment interviews, 103 interviewers provided a general evaluation of each interviewee. They also indicated how much they liked each applicant personally, and rated his intelligence. Fairly strong relationships were found between liking and overall evaluations, despite the fact that most interviewers did not expect to work with candidates personally. The relationship that was observed between ratings of intelligence and general evaluations was only slightly reduced when the effect of liking was held constant. This was interpreted as suggesting that there may be both affective and cognitive components in interviewers' evaluations of candidates. The possibility that interviewers allow their personal feelings about candidates to bias their judgement of them was also discussed.
56 citations
39 citations
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01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: Trollope's autobiography as mentioned in this paper describes the misery of his schooldays at Harrow, a gentleman's son, out-at-elbows and sneered at by boys no better born than he; years of service in the Post Office, travelling all over Ireland and Southern England; the slow rise to fame and fortune as the creator of Barsetshire.
Abstract: Thackeray forbade an autobiography, Trollope left us one — and a mystery. To be without it is unthinkable, for it sets out with such grace the facts we need to know: the misery of his schooldays at Harrow, a gentleman’s son, out-at-elbows and sneered at by boys no better born than he; the years of service in the Post Office, travelling all over Ireland and Southern England; the slow rise to fame and fortune as the creator of Barsetshire. All is meticulously set down: the word-counting and the stop-watch precision of his writing, hunts, visits, travels, whist at the club, and good health into the bargain. It is the archetypal Victorian success story; self-help and virtue rewarded by a happy home and a comfortable balance in the bank — a David Copperfield come to judgement.
38 citations
TL;DR: This article examined the extent to which practicing CPAs may employ two heuristics, representativeness and protectiveness, which lead to systematic errors in the judgement evaluation of sample outcomes.
Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which practicing CPAs may employ two heuristics, representativeness and protectiveness, which lead to systematic errors in the judgement evaluation of sample outcomes. The results indicate that both heuristics are used, but to a lesser extent than suggested by previous research. Implications of the results for audit firm policy are discussed.
36 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the art of scenario generation, reviewing a number of existing procedures and noting their limitations, and three alternative approaches are outlined and compared in terms of their relative efficiency.
26 citations
TL;DR: More has been written about education in Victorian England than in any other period, and the majority of it has been about popular education as discussed by the authors. Yet we have neglected it, and this is not just a question of 'gaps' that need to be filled, of historical inattention, but a more basic question of the kind of historical enterprise in which we have been engaged.
Abstract: More has been researched and written about education in Victorian England than in any other period, and the majority of it has been about popular education. Yet we have neglected it. Most of what has been written has in fact disguised our neglect and ignorance of it. This is not just a question of 'gaps' that need to be filled, of historical inattention. It is a more basic question of the kind of historical enterprise in which we have been engaged. Judgements about historical 'neglect', of course, depend on assumptions about what is, could be, or should be known. They entail definitions of the area, purpose and value of study. Such judgements and definitions are ideological statements. My interest in our 'neglect' of Victorian popular education, in the nature of the historical definitions involved, and in related questions of ideology, arise from difficulties in my current research. In making a judgement about the apparently most explored area and period of English, education, I am inevitably making a judgement about the direction of the history of education-though I am here confining myself to the nineteenth century, and to the education of the poor. I cannot avoid outlining the personal research situation out of which this discussion arises, or the main thrusts of previous investigations in this field. In outlining these situations I cannot avoid discussing the reasons for them, and the theoretical and historiographical issues which they raise. The themes that have attracted the most attention in Victorian popular education have been those of policy formation and legislation, commissions and committees, the provision, control and administration of education, and the changing shape of different 'levels' of education-elementary and technical, infant and adult, and 'types' of educationboard and voluntary. Some attention has been paid to the broader 'context' of educational decisions and functions-notably that of the churches and the radical and labour movements, and the nature and extent of literacy. Studies have been national and (especially in the case of theses and dissertations) local-with a vast amount of (mainly unpublished) work on local school boards and local institutions. The most researched and discussed areas can be summarized as: the school boards, the voluntary school system, and the development of a national system of administration (focusing on Kay-Shuttleworth and the Committee of Council, Robert Lowe and the Revised Code, Forster and the 1870 Education Act, the politics of the school board era and the events leading up to the I902 Education Act). Attention has also been paid (again, largely in unpublished work) to pressure groups, from the Central Society of Education in the i83os to the bodies campaigning for public education in the late I84os and i85os, the National Education League of the late I86os, and the socialist organizations of the last decades of the century.l It seems a well-surveyed field, and it has produced such publication peaks as Brian Simon's first two volumes of 'Studies in the History of Education' which encompass the Victorian period (I960, I965), John Harrison's Learning and Living 1780-1960 (I96I), Mabel Tylecote's The Mechanics' Institutes of Lancashire and Yorkshire before 1851 (I957)
17 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, it is believed that at present an increasing part of the decision maker's task is being shut off from the operational researcher because of the latter's inability to make a useful contribution.
Abstract: Operational Research is viewed as an aid to decision making and it is believed that at present an increasing part of the decision maker's task is being shut off from the operational researcher because of the latter's inability to make a useful contribution Particular problems are those in which the decision maker has to use his subjective judgement, intuition and foresight to enable him to make choices between alternatives There has been a great deal of work over the last ten years in the field of technological forecasting in which attempts are made to qualify, quantify and aggregate such subjective judgements, for example, Delphi and Cross Impact Analysis
15 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the decision-making processes of the British nuclear industry, looking in particular at the history of the Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR), concluding that both the institutional framework in which the decision was made and the decision itself give cause for concern.
TL;DR: The House of Commons resolved to submit a petition to King James I, asking him for stricter enforcement of the laws against Catholic recusants, asking ‘that your Majesty would propose to yourself to manage this war with the best advantage, by a diversion or otherwise, as in your deep judgement shall be found fittest, and not to rest upon a war in these parts only, which will consume your treasure and discourage your people’, and that our most noble prince may be timely and happily married to one of our own religion.
Abstract: On 3 December 1621 the House of Commons resolved to submit a petition to King James I, asking him for stricter enforcement of the laws against Catholic recusants, asking ‘that your Majesty would propose to yourself to manage this war with the best advantage, by a diversion or otherwise, as in your deep judgement shall be found fittest, and not to rest upon a war in these parts only, which will consume your treasure and discourage your people’, and that ‘our most noble prince may be timely and happily married to one of our own religion’.
TL;DR: The measure of scalar curvature K varies with the method used to determine it, and nearly perfect constancy results from successive judgement, while absolute judgement produces underconstancy.
Abstract: The measure of scalar curvature K varies with the method used to determine it. Overconstancy is found only with simultaneous comparison, nearly perfect constancy results from successive judgement, while absolute judgement produces underconstancy.
TL;DR: This paper argued that the generational time paths produced by economic models offer opportunities for the display of technical virtuosity, but are no more illuminating than earlier neoclassical models on the problem of distribution within the community.
TL;DR: In this article, it is argued that people may lack the cognitive apparatus necessary for processing probabilistic information, in so far as probability judgements play an unimportant role in everyday life.
Abstract: .— Recent research on probability judgement indicates that people's ability to estimate probabilities is very limited. It is argued that people may lack the cognitive apparatus necessary for processing probabilistic information, in so far as probability judgements play an unimportant role in everyday life. When probability judgements occasionally are made in everyday life it is argued that they are not based on frequency data but on some more or less well grounded theory.
TL;DR: In this paper, the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence are examined, and the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking is also ascertained.
Abstract: The authors examine the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence. They discuss the chief executive's individual computation needs and the extent to which he satisfies these personally, his attitudes towards computer-based information and corporate models, and his general informational and analytical requirements. Of particular interest, is the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking; comparative valuations of formal and informal information systems are also ascertained. On the evidence provided by the chief executives, future prospects for computer systems and modelling techniques at strategic level are generally sound although it is difficult to see them achieving the dominance at top managerial level once envisaged by the more optimistic and imaginative management scientists and cyberneticians.
01 Oct 1977
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that policy makers do not benefit from advances in systems analysis or judgement and decision theory because neither of these disciplines recognize the incompleteness of its methodology.
Abstract: Policy makers do not benefit from advances in (a) systems analysis or (b) judgement and decision theory because neither of these disciplines recognize the incompleteness of its methodology. A complete methodology requires a synthesis of the two. This RM explains why such a synthesis is necessary, describes how it can be achieved, and provides a worked-out example of its application to the problem of changing sources of energy production in the US. The example also illustrates that the linkage of systems analysis and judgement theory provides information that neither discipline can provide separately. Finally, the RM shows that such information is policy relevant and that it provides more effective assistance to the policy maker than does either approach used separately.
TL;DR: The basic principles of successful narrative presentation are simple to state, if difficult to achieve as discussed by the authors, such as selection and organization of material to make the desired point; sufficient variety of tone and pace to hold the audience's interest and to emphasize the point; and a proper appreciation of the context in which the point has to be made.
Abstract: The basic principles of successful narrative presentation are simple to state, if difficult to achieve. Selection and organization of material to make the desired point; sufficient variety of tone and pace to hold the audience's interest and to emphasize the point; and a proper appreciation of the context in which the point has to be made: these requirements seem to be valid, whether the narrative being presented is a literary history, an imaginative novel, or an archetypal story which starts with ‘An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman …’ For each of these narrative forms implies intellectual judgement by the narrator on his material, artistic judgement about its presentation, and assumptions about the audience for whom it is intended. I should like to consider some aspects of Tacitus' art of narrative presentation, and the connection of that art with his historical judgement.
TL;DR: The nature and limits of selection interviewing are discussed in this article, where it is argued that quite dramatic improvements seem possible and that an accurate judgement of this speculation depends on progress in several areas of research.
Abstract: The nature and limits of selection interviewing are discussed: it is argued that quite dramatic improvements seem possible. An accurate judgement of this speculation depends on progress in several areas of research. Seven of these are touched on, including job and person description, states of consciousness and training.
01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: This paper pointed out that perplexity results from a failure to understand, and it is not a universally held truth that moral problems are problems of the understanding, and that people are sometimes perplexed about moral problems because they examine the features of a situation; they seek advice and engage in argument.
Abstract: People are sometimes perplexed about moral problems. They examine the features of a situation; they seek advice and engage in argument. This is something which requires explanation because perplexity results from a failure to understand, and it is not a universally held truth that moral problems are problems of the understanding. For example, J. Kemp quite clearly distinguishes moral behaviour from the manifestation of intelligence or skill. He notes that ‘being brave, and knowing how to handle one’s weapons, are both necessary conditions of being a good soldier’, but that there is an important difference in the way we explain failures in either of these respects: ‘The coward knows what to do, but does not do it; the incompetent soldier who cannot handle his weapons does not know what to do or how to do it.’1
01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: In this article, the authors have spoken after their old friend Gottfried Haberler, who in his paper once more demonstrates his exceptional ability in making difficult problems easily understandable and his reliable judgement in scientific surveys.
Abstract: I am happy to have the privilege to speak after my old friend Gottfried Haberler, who in his paper once more demonstrates his exceptional ability in making difficult problems easily understandable and his reliable judgement in scientific surveys.
01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: The IFO Business Survey as discussed by the authors is based on the hypothesis that cyclical developments are influenced not solely by the objective circumstances, but also by assessments of businessmen concerning these facts, and therefore relies on trade cycle theories which attach particular significance to incomplete information concerning past and present events.
Abstract: The collection of entrepreneurial judgements in the IFO Business Survey is based on the hypothesis that “... cyclical developments... are influenced not solely by the objective circumstances, but also by assessments of businessmen concerning these facts.”1 It therefore relies on trade cycle theories which attach particular significance to incomplete information concerning past and present events2. Apart from the objective conditions and changes in the economic process, attempts are made to determine and make measurable their subjective evaluation by the entrepreneurs. These subjective judgements are supposed to be connected with corresponding measures taken by the entrepreneur which affect cyclical development. “If businessmen predominantly judge a certain economic situation uniformly, and if they act in accordance with their judgement, ... the economic impulses emanating from the private economy will be adjusted to this assessment.”3
01 Jan 1977
Patent•
16 Nov 1977
TL;DR: In this article, a coincidence judgement circuit was proposed to increase the reliability of system by judging the coincidence judgement of the result of count of two sets and that with the reference data for the results of diagnosis for both computers.
Abstract: PURPOSE:To increase the reliability of system, by judging the coincidence judgement of the result of count of 2 sets and that with the reference data for the result of diagnosis for both computers by another coincidence judgement circuit
01 Apr 1977
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors point out the contradiction between bureaucratic rationalism and individual autonomy and show how this transformation is accomplished in the rationalization of functions which typically accompanies the introduction of computer-based information systems.
Abstract: Computer-based information systems are playing an increasingly important role in organizational decision-making. Although high level managers are not in imminent danger of extinction, many managerial functions have been substantially altered or replaced by computer systems. These developments are viewed here as an extension of bureaucratic rationalism, the peculiar innovative spirit of large-scale enterprise. Advanced information technology in large organizations appears to promote the elaboration of hierarchically structured control mechanisms, and to further the resolution of complex decision tasks into routine procedures. Since the technology could in principle be used to support radically different modes of organization, an explanation must be sought in the evolution of bureaucracy. Efforts to improve productivity and efficiency affect the distribution of power and authority, so that technical innovation in management raises serious ethical and political problems. Historical observations and empirical results point to a contradiction between bureaucratic rationalism and individual autonomy. This contradiction is revealed in the impact of computer applications on the conduct of certain classes of decision-makers. Policy issues are transformed into technical questions, and opportunities for exercising independent judgment are diminished as analysis of means displaces exploration of ends. I will attempt to show how this transformation is accomplished in the rationalization of functions which typically accompanies the introduction of computer systems.