Showing papers on "Policy analysis published in 1980"
761 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a discussion is presented mathematically and verbally upon mathematical programming sector models in which both price and quantity are endogenous variables and the discussion covers both the theoretical properties and the empirical concerns which must be faced in applying such models.
Abstract: The question, "Why use a mathematical programming model at the sectoral level?" is addressed. To address this question, discussion is presented mathematically and verbally upon mathematical programming sector models in which both price and quantity are endogenous variables. The discussion covers both the theoretical properties and the empirical concerns which must be faced in applying such models. Discussion is also presented upon the usefulness of the modeling approach for policy analysis. Selected bibliograpic citations' use of the approach in policy analysis are given.
330 citations
TL;DR: Foster as mentioned in this paper described the art and craft of policy analysis as "speaking truth to power" and "speaking Truth to Power" as "the Art and Craft of Policy Analysis".
Abstract: (1980). Speaking Truth to Power: The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis. Journal of Economic Issues: Vol. 14, The Papers of J. Fagg Foster, pp. 1029-1031.
160 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: The question of why policies fail once adopted, in the words of series editor Stuart Nagel, 'goes to the essence of public policy analysis' is addressed in this paper.
Abstract: The question of why policies fail once adopted, in the words of series editor Stuart Nagel, 'goes to the essence of public policy analysis'. The volume editors, in their extensive and valuable introduction, provide a review of previous efforts to answer aspects of this question and discuss the problems of definition and research political scientists encounter in dealing with it. Louise Comfort in her essay discusses how programme goals must sometimes simply be redifined. Edward Jennings explores the thesis that changes in welfare policy came about largely because of urban unrest. David O'Brien writes aboutt the dilemma confronting agencies caught between the conflicting aims of the Privacy Act and the Freedom of Information Act. Theodore Anagnoson explores the problem of judging a policy that fails because Congress preferred to protect contrary political values.
140 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the role of monetary policy as it affects available information is examined in an equilibrium model of the business cycle, and the authors show that, under a passive policy, asset market equilibrium requires a change in the value of money, which, if imperfectly perceived, detracts from the signaling aspect of observed prices.
Abstract: The role of monetary policy as it affects available information is examined in an equilibrium model of the business cycle. Exogenous, uncertain changes in the expected return to capital assets relative to money holding are shown to induce revisions in investors' desired portfolios. Under a passive policy, asset market equilibrium requires a change in the value of money, which, if imperfectly perceived, detracts from the signaling aspect of observed prices. Active money growth feedback rules are examined as altering the prospective return to money holding. A policy may be designed to maintain the relative attractiveness between real capital and money even if the controlling authority has no informational advantage. Such a policy is shown to obviate the need for portfolio revisions to assure informational efficiency.
84 citations
TL;DR: In this article, McNertney et al. proposed a regional economic model that synthesizes the relevant aspects of existing regional economic theory into a single integrated construct, which can be used for both forecasting and policy evaluation.
Abstract: D ESPITE the rapid development of techniques of regional economic analysis during the past fifteen years, most regional models have continued to focus upon selected aspects of the regional economy rather than upon its totality Economic base models and regional input-output models have concentrated upon the relationships between the output and employment in the export sectors and the local sectors;' comparative cost models have concentrated upon the response of the export sectors to changes in relative regional production costs;2 and regional econometric models have concentrated upon the determinants of employment in the export sectors and the relationships between regional economic activity and that of the nation3 This disparate collection of partial-equilibrium models generally does not make it possible to determine the full general-equilibrium effects of a given economic change on the total regional economy For example, although economic base/input-output models permit the estimation of the indirect and induced employment and output effects arising from a change in final demand or the level of activity in the export sector, they treat the level of activity in the export sector as exogenous and do not permit factor substitution Similarly, although comparative cost models explicitly recognize that the location of export industries is largely determined by relative production costs, they do not consider the interrelationships among the industries within the export and local sectors or the role that factor substitution can play in regional employment levels Finally, although regional econometric models generally use a neoclassical labor demand function, and hence explicitly consider factor substitution, they do not fully differentiate between the factor-substitution and production cost effects of a change in regional input prices Furthermore, they do not account for the full set of linkages among the industries in the export and local sectors The growing need for comprehensive regional models for planning and policy analysis suggests that there would be substantial value in having models that synthesize the relevant aspects of existing regional economic theory into a single integrated construct Such an integrated model would be useful for both forecasting and policy evaluation and should include the following fea- tures: First, it should recognize that factor substitution is possible and that an increase in the regional price of any given factor will tend to cause substitution in favor of other factors (the factorsubstitution effect); Second, it should recognize that an increase in any input price in a region relative to that in other regions will tend to increase production costs in the region in question The result will be a reduction in the comparative locational advantage for the affected region and a tendency toward a relative shift in employment in national-market industries away from that region to lower-cost regions (the location effect); Third, it should be able to quantify the relative magnitudes of the factor-substitution effect and the location effect arising from any given change in regional input prices; Fourth, it should recognize that a complex set of interrelationships exists not only between the export sector and the local sector, but also among the various industries within each sector Received for publication May 17, 1978 Revision accepted for publication December 7, 1978 * University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Regional Science Research Institute, respectively Work on this model has been supported by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts The authors are grateful to Edward M McNertney for contributions to the development and estimation of many of the equations and to Roy E Williams for a mathematical and statistical review of the model and for programming the model ' See, for example, Isard (1960), Tiebout (1962), Bourque et al (1967), Miernyk (1970), and Polenske (1974) 2 See, for example, Weber (1928), Hoover (1937), Isard (1956) and Borts and Stein (1964) 3See, for example, Friedlaender et al (1975), Adams et al (1976), and Glickman (1977)
TL;DR: A critical review of eight models defines the range of questions that can be answered with particular models, evaluating the reasonableness of their specifications and the probable quality of their performance.
Abstract: This paper assesses the usefulness of economic-demographic simulation models for policy analysis, emphasizing in particular the relevance of the current state of the art for agricultural development planners. A critical review of eight models defines the range of questions that can be answered with particular models, evaluating the reasonableness of their specifications and the probable quality of their performance. Suggestions concerning further research are also provided.
The primary function of economic-demographic simulation models is to ascertain the quantitative importance of indirect effects of changes in the economic or demographic environment. For example, governmental policies concerning credit availability, which have a direct effect on the rate of growth of agricultural productivity, will have an indirect effect on rural population growth and rural to urban migration. A clarification of such interactions between demographic and economic phenomena is an essential ingredient of an enlightened development planning process.
The five "second generation" economic-demographic simulation models reviewed in this paper are the FAO model, the Bachue-Philippines model, the Simon model, the Tempo II model, and the Kelley-Williamson, and Cheetham model. The main conclusion of the review is that although none of these models in their present form can offer reliable advice to agricultural policy makers, they may be useful as aids in teaching government officials about the potential long-run consequences of their decisions. Two third-generation models, the Adelman-Robinson model and the Kelley-Williamson representative developing country (RDC) model are also reviewed. Neither of these two models has a significant demographic component, but they are of interest because future economic-demographic simulation models are likely to be constructed around their fundamental concepts.
TL;DR: The resistance to the use of analysis has traditionally been explained in terms of "implementation": managers do not understand analysis or are not sold on it; analysis lacks the support or participation of top management; analytic solutions are blocked by managerial attitudes, organizational climates, politics as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The resistance to the use of analysis has traditionally been explained in terms of “implementation”: managers do not understand analysis or are not sold on it; analysis lacks the support or participation of top management; analytic solutions are blocked by managerial attitudes, organizational climates, politics. This paper finds these explanations superficial, arguing that we must look beyond implementation - to formulation — for the reasons why analysis, especially policy analysis, is resisted. Analysis denies the importance of dynamic factors characteristic of policy making; it fails to handle the critical soft data; despite claims of objectivity, it drives the organization towards a narrow economic morality which sometimes amounts to a social immorality; it tends to encourage bureaucratization and centralization; and it disregards another, fundamentally different mode of thinking — generally called intuition — which better suits many of the needs of policy making. There is, however, a role to b...
TL;DR: In this paper, a strategy for social impact assessment (SIA) is proposed which uses public inputs during cyclical planning iterations for efficiently identifying and assessing the most important social impacts.
Abstract: Social impact assessment (SIA) is defined and related to other policy analysis techniques. Conceptual problems in conducting SIA are reviewed. Various SIA methods are identified and evaluated for their probable effectiveness in assessing regional plans. Regional planning conditions are identified and constraints to, and demands on, SIA are examined. A strategy for SIA is proposed which uses public inputs during cyclical planning iterations for efficiently identifying and assessing the most important social impacts.
TL;DR: It is argued that, for certain types of policy analysis, the model provides a better picture of hospital costs than do conventional accounting methods.
Abstract: The paper describes the development of a model of hospital inpatient costs. The model has three components; overhead, hotel and treatment costs. The size of each component is estimated using regression on historical hospital cost and activity data. It is argued that, for certain types of policy analysis, the model provides a better picture of hospital costs than do conventional accounting methods. The application of the model to a number of policy issues is described.
TL;DR: The authors traces the intellectual history of policy analysis from Merriam's concept of intelligent planning and Lasswell's vision of "policy sciences" to the present and concludes that policy analysis is unbreakable and that attempts to develop an interdisciplinary policy science premised on the supposed unifying force of a common methodological core have led to fragmentation, not theoretical integration.
Abstract: This essay on the intellectual history of policy analysis traces the field from Merriam's concept of “intelligent planning” and Lass-well's vision of “policy sciences” to the present. Lasswell's vision is seen as a relevant if unrealized one in general dimensions. It is argued that the tie of policy analysis to traditional issues in political science is unbreakable and, because of this, attempts to develop an interdisciplinary policy science premised on the supposed unifying force of a common methodological core have led to fragmentation, not theoretical integration. The emergence of the synoptic/empirico-rational tradition and anti-synoptic/neo-pluralist traditions in policy analysis in the 1950's and 1960's are discussed and strengths and weaknesses noted. Divisions over the question of values and normative theory are highlighted. A concluding section discusses alternative views on the proper scope of policy analysis as an emerging discipline, contrasting the “handmaiden” and “ivory tower” alternatives. A six-dimension outline of a map for policy analysis as a field is presented and the continued utility of Lasswellian concerns emphasized in contrast to the stalemated debate between synoptic and anti-synoptic viewpoints in American policy analysis.
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a tool that can help answer questions such as: how much additional income will be generated by a given policy or program? How many jobs will be created? How much additional output will be produced? Which industries in the economy will be affected most?
Abstract: When evaluating a public program, it is often important to know what effect a proposed policy will have on the output, income, or employment of the economy. The policy analyst may be interested in the answers to questions such as: How much additional income will be generated by a given policy or program? How many jobs will be created? How much additional output will be produced? Which industries in the economy will be affected most? Multiplier analysis is a tool that can help answer such questions. The multiplier accounts not only for the effects of the spending outlined in the specific program, but also for the subsequent rounds of spending generated by the initial expenditures.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the latest version (MDM4) of a large-scale model of the UK economy that has been developed for economic policy analysis by the Cambridge Growth Project.
TL;DR: There is a general agreement (Stufflebeam, Foley, Gephart, Guba, Hammond, Merriman, & Provus, 1971, p. 32) among theorists that evaluation is a process of providing information for decision-making, and that ultimately evaluation implies value judgments of worth as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Educational evaluation and policy analysis have been increasingly emphasized during the last two decades. An increasing emphasis on evaluation has been supported by an infusion of federal dollars, and the decision by various professional organizations to encourage their members to give more serious consideration to the assessment of educational endeavors. This support has had several noteworthy impacts. Emphasis on evaluation processes has stimulated reflection regarding which characteristics distinguish evaluation and policy analysis from each other and related processes. Consequently, as Scriven (1974) has noted, "as we look back on the very earliest attempts to grapple with or eliminate the distinction between evaluation and research . . ., we realize that we have come a long way toward understanding evaluation" (p. 4). Full consensus on these issues has certainly not emerged, but there does appear to be general agreement (Stufflebeam, Foley, Gephart, Guba, Hammond, Merriman, & Provus, 1971, p. 32) among theorists that evaluation is a process of providing information for decision-making, and that ultimately evaluation implies value judgments of worth. There also seems to be some recognition that evaluation and policy analysis, depending upon the models employed, can be very much the same things, although some evaluation models imply "preoccupation with existing programs" and some policy analysis models "usually compare existing and hypothetical alternative program solutions" (Wholey, Scanlon, Duffy, Fukumoto & Vogt, 1970, pp. 23-24). Glass (1967) has suggested that the importance of efforts to distinguish these various processes should not be minimized.
TL;DR: The thesis is that dynamic analysis establishes the basis for formulating strategy to solve long-term problems and can be misleading in that it may provide short-term improvements but undermine long- term survival.
Abstract: In this paper we discuss the nature of static and dynamic analyses and their implications for a systems theory of policy formulation. Our thesis is that dynamic analysis establishes the basis for formulating strategy to solve long-term problems. Static analysis can be misleading in that it may provide short-term improvements but undermine long-term survival.
TL;DR: In this paper, a linear structural equation model is formulated that overcomes the problems of handling the multidimensional nature of the regional profile, separation of policy effects from autonomous developments, comparison of different policy instruments, and handling theoretical constructs and measurement errors.
Abstract: In the literature on measuring of the effects of regional policy four methodological problems can be distinguished: First, handling the multidimensional nature of the regional profile; second, separation of policy effects from autonomous developments; third, comparison of different policy instruments; and fourth, handling theoretical constructs and measurement errors. In this paper a linear structural equation model is formulated that overcomes these problems. The paper concludes with a case study of the situation in Holland during the period 1974–1975.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The term "forecast" covers three rather distinct types of forecasting exercises as discussed by the authors : (a) genuine "ex-ante" forecasts, in which the model user predicts the actual future development of the economy, and for which projected future values of input variables must be supplied; (b) ex-post" forecasts (ex-post) forecasts, where model user eliminates the effects of error in the projections of the input variables by calculating "forecasts" over some period in the recent past, given the actual observed values of the inputs, and (c) hypothetical forecasting or
Abstract: Most macroeconometric models are built with the objective, wholly or partly, of providing forecasts. The term "forecast" covers three rather distinct types of exercise : (a) genuine "ex-ante" forecasts, in which the model user predicts the actual future development of the economy, and for which projected future values of input variables must be supplied ; (b) "ex-post" forecasts, in which the model user eliminates the effects of error in the projections of the input variables by calculating "forecasts" over some period in the recent past, given the actual observed values of the input variables ; (c) hypothetical forecasting or policy analysis exercises, in which the model user estimates the response of the economy to the economy to alternative scenarios, that is, to alternative values of policy instruments or to different kinds of exogenous shock. In each case there is interest in evaluating the results of the forecasting exercise, not only for its own sake but also to provide information that is useful in model validation, that is, in checking the specification of the model. Of course the various forecasting exercises and their respective evaluations are not necessarily independent of one another, for example it is often said that in order to be useful in policy analysis a model should have a good real-world forecasting record over a period that was not part of the estimation period, so that it might also be expected to provide "good" estimates of responses to policy changes.
TL;DR: In this article, a policy analysis aiming at finding compromise solutions for conflict between energy, pollution and economic issues in an inter-regional framework is carried out on the basis of an interregional input output model extended with pollution and energy sectors.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the analyses of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provide Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies and that less activist and less inflationary policies are desirable.
Posted Content•
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: The term "forecast" covers three rather distinct types of forecasting exercises as discussed by the authors : (a) genuine "ex-ante" forecasts, in which the model user predicts the actual future development of the economy, and for which projected future values of input variables must be supplied; (b) ex-post" forecasts (ex-post) forecasts, where model user eliminates the effects of error in the projections of the input variables by calculating "forecasts" over some period in the recent past, given the actual observed values of the inputs, and (c) hypothetical forecasting or
Abstract: Most macroeconometric models are built with the objective, wholly or partly, of providing forecasts. The term "forecast" covers three rather distinct types of exercise : (a) genuine "ex-ante" forecasts, in which the model user predicts the actual future development of the economy, and for which projected future values of input variables must be supplied ; (b) "ex-post" forecasts, in which the model user eliminates the effects of error in the projections of the input variables by calculating "forecasts" over some period in the recent past, given the actual observed values of the input variables ; (c) hypothetical forecasting or policy analysis exercises, in which the model user estimates the response of the economy to the economy to alternative scenarios, that is, to alternative values of policy instruments or to different kinds of exogenous shock. In each case there is interest in evaluating the results of the forecasting exercise, not only for its own sake but also to provide information that is useful in model validation, that is, in checking the specification of the model. Of course the various forecasting exercises and their respective evaluations are not necessarily independent of one another, for example it is often said that in order to be useful in policy analysis a model should have a good real-world forecasting record over a period that was not part of the estimation period, so that it might also be expected to provide "good" estimates of responses to policy changes.
Book•
01 Jan 1980
TL;DR: The GLOBAL CONTEXT OF POLICY MAKING American Interests and Power in a Changing World Questions and Conferences for Foreign Policy Analysis Analytic Models The Policy Process Process The President The Bureaucracy Congress Interest Groups The Public POLICIES Trade Defense Spending and Nuclear Weapons Intervention, Assistance, and Human Rights as mentioned in this paper
Abstract: THE GLOBAL CONTEXT OF POLICY MAKING American Interests and Power in a Changing World QUESTIONS AND CONCEPTS FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS Analytic Models THE POLICY PROCESS The President The Bureaucracy Congress Interest Groups The Public POLICIES Trade Defense Spending and Nuclear Weapons Intervention, Assistance, and Human Rights