Showing papers by "Andrew P. Dobson published in 2022"

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

Abstract: The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats.” In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Disease outbreaks select for mate choice and coat color in wolves

Abstract: We know much about pathogen evolution and the emergence of new disease strains, but less about host resistance and how it is signaled to other individuals and subsequently maintained. The cline in frequency of black-coated wolves (Canis lupus) across North America is hypothesized to result from a relationship with canine distemper virus (CDV) outbreaks. We tested this hypothesis using cross-sectional data from wolf populations across North America that vary in the prevalence of CDV and the allele that makes coats black, longitudinal data from Yellowstone National Park, and modeling. We found that the frequency of CDV outbreaks generates fluctuating selection that results in heterozygote advantage that in turn affects the frequency of the black allele, optimal mating behavior, and black wolf cline across the continent. Description Black wolves’ leg up In North America, wolves generally have either gray or black coats, and the proportions of these colors vary across populations. The genetics of these coat colors have been revealed, and we now know that black wolves are either homozygous or heterozygous for a gene that is also related to resistance to canine distemper virus. Analyzing data from across North America, but especially from populations in Yellowstone National Park, Cubaynes et al. found that black coats were maintained through heterozygote advantage in, and mate choice preference for, black-coated wolves in areas where canine distemper is endemic even though gray-coated wolves have higher success when the virus is absent. —SNV Disease epidemics drive the evolution of morphology and behavior in wolves.

Too few, too late: U.S. Endangered Species Act undermined by inaction and inadequate funding

Abstract: This year, the Conference of Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity will meet to finalize a post 2020-framework for biodiversity conservation, necessitating critical analysis of current barriers to conservation success. Here, we tackle one of the enduring puzzles about the U.S. Endangered Species Act, often considered a model for endangered species protection globally: Why have so few species been successfully recovered? For the period of 1992–2020, we analyzed trends in the population sizes of species of concern, trends in the time between when species are first petitioned for listing and when they actually receive protection, and trends in funding for the listing and recovery of imperiled species. We find that small population sizes at time of listing, coupled with delayed protection and insufficient funding, continue to undermine one of the world’s strongest laws for protecting biodiversity.

Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study

Abstract: Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980-2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease.

Natural strongyle infection reduces relative abundance of inflammation-inducing Prevotella in wild primates

Abstract: Microbes living within the mammalian gastrointestinal tract affect the metabolization and extraction of dietary nutrients, immune function, colonization by pathogens, and risk of autoimmune disease. While most microbiome studies focus on sequences of the 16S gene shared by Bacteria and Archaea, these are not the only regular inhabitants of mammalian guts. Macroparasites such as helminths are nearly ubiquitous in wildlife, and a quarter of the world’s human population harbors helminths; these worms affect host physiology as they compete with microbiota over host resources while also affecting host immunity, and changing the host microbiome. Little is understood about how helminths interact with microbiomes to affect host disease states, and few studies have examined these interactions in natural systems in genetically diverse hosts experiencing coinfections and other stressors. We surveyed the microbiomes and helminth parasites of wild primates and found strong associations between helminths and microbes in the bacterial microbiome. Notably, we find that the presence of a strongyle we hypothesize to be hookworm is correlated strongly with decreased relative abundance of Prevotella species, a lineage associated with inflammatory bowel disease humans. This observed decline in Prevotella relative abundance, a genus implicated in several host autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, motivates future research on whether the mixed results of helminthic therapy (i.e., “infecting” patients with gastrointestinal nematodes to treat various diseases) stem from the mixed causes of inflammation, and whether inflammation specifically correlated with Prevotella-driven dysbiosis can be mediated through mechanisms mimicking how hookworms and other nematodes behave in the gastrointestinal ecosystem of their hosts. Our findings lend ground-truthed support to previous lab-based studies and limited/restricted human trials showing potential benefits, via microbial modulation, of nematode therapy in treating inflammatory bowel disease. Our study adds statistical weight to a link between helminths and a specific lineage of microbes associated with inflammation.