Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Improving the design and implementation of evidence-based practice depends on successful behaviour change interventions. This requires an appropriate method for characterising interventions and linking them to an analysis of the targeted behaviour. There exists a plethora of frameworks of behaviour change interventions, but it is not clear how well they serve this purpose. This paper evaluates these frameworks, and develops and evaluates a new framework aimed at overcoming their limitations. A systematic search of electronic databases and consultation with behaviour change experts were used to identify frameworks of behaviour change interventions. These were evaluated according to three criteria: comprehensiveness, coherence, and a clear link to an overarching model of behaviour. A new framework was developed to meet these criteria. The reliability with which it could be applied was examined in two domains of behaviour change: tobacco control and obesity. Nineteen frameworks were identified covering nine intervention functions and seven policy categories that could enable those interventions. None of the frameworks reviewed covered the full range of intervention functions or policies, and only a minority met the criteria of coherence or linkage to a model of behaviour. At the centre of a proposed new framework is a 'behaviour system' involving three essential conditions: capability, opportunity, and motivation (what we term the 'COM-B system'). This forms the hub of a 'behaviour change wheel' (BCW) around which are positioned the nine intervention functions aimed at addressing deficits in one or more of these conditions; around this are placed seven categories of policy that could enable those interventions to occur. The BCW was used reliably to characterise interventions within the English Department of Health's 2010 tobacco control strategy and the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence's guidance on reducing obesity. Interventions and policies to change behaviour can be usefully characterised by means of a BCW comprising: a 'behaviour system' at the hub, encircled by intervention functions and then by policy categories. Research is needed to establish how far the BCW can lead to more efficient design of effective interventions.

/pdf/the-behaviour-change-wheel-a-new-method-for-characterising-4vp816z23u.pdf

The behaviour change wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions.

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

/pdf/international-norm-dynamics-and-political-change-37ig9r9dlq.pdf

International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Risk as Feelings

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/JudgementAndChoice.MappingBoundedRationality.DKahneman2003.pdf

A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.

For most people, control has some intrinsic value; people care about maintaining it and will pay something to do so. Whenever a private or public institution blocks choices or interferes with agency, some people will rebel, even if exercising control would not result in material benefits or might produce material harms.

‘Don't Tell Me What I Can't Do!’ On the Intrinsic Value of Control

Muitos incentivos sao monetarios e, quando instituicoes publicas ou privadas buscam mudar de comportamento, e natural mudar os incentivos monetarios. Mas muitos outros incentivos sao resultantes de significados sociais , sobre os quais as pessoas podem nao deliberar, mas que podem operar como subsidios ou tributos. Em alguns momentos e lugares, por exemplo, o significado social do tabagismo tem sido positivo, aumentando o incentivo ao fumo; em outros tempos e lugares, foi negativo e, portanto, serviu para reduzir o tabagismo. No que diz respeito a seguranca e a saude, os significados sociais mudam radicalmente ao longo dos anos e podem ser drasticamente diferentes a depender do lugar. Muitas vezes, as pessoas se manifestam de acordo com os significados que lamentam ou, pelo menos, desejam que seja de outra forma. Mas e extremamente dificil para os individuos alterar os seus proprios conceitos. A alteracao de conceitos pode advir da lei, que pode, por meio de um mandato, transformar o significado da acao em um mero: "Eu cumpro a lei", ou em algo menos brando, como: "Sou um bom cidadao". A alteracao de significados sociais tambem pode advir de acao privada em larga escala, projetada ou promovida por "empreendedores que ressignificam", que pode transformar o significado da acao de "Eu sou um excentrico" para "Eu cumpro meu dever civico" ou  "Eu protejo outras pessoas de danos." As vezes, subgrupos se rebelam contra significados novos ou alterados, produzidos pela lei ou por empreendedores que ressignificam, mas geralmente esses significados permanecem e produzem mudancas substanciais.

/pdf/o-significado-do-uso-de-mascaras-k0u82mi0if.pdf

O significado do uso de máscaras

Experiments of Living Constitutionalism

Federal regulators have often required environmental labels, which may be designed to help consumers to save money or to reduce externalities. Under prevailing executive orders, regulators are required to project the benefits and costs of such labels, and also to show that the benefits justify the costs. These projections can be extremely challenging, partly because of the difficulty of knowing how consumers will respond to labels, partly because of the challenging of converting behavioral changes into monetary equivalents. The benefits of environmental labels should include (1) the monetary value of the reduced externalities and (2) the monetary benefit to consumers, measured by willingness to pay. It may be difficult for regulators to know (1), and even if they can figure out (2), willingness to pay may not capture the welfare benefit to consumers, at least if consumers are not adequately informed (or if they suffer from some kind of behavioral bias). In principle, agencies should include, as part of (2), the moral convictions of people who care about environmental goods, at least if those convictions are backed by willingness to pay. In the face of the evident epistemic difficulties, sometimes the best that agencies can do is to engage in breakeven analysis, by which they explore what the benefits would have to be in order to justify the costs. Technical as they might seem, these claims raise fundamental questions about valuation of environmental goods and the possible disconnect between willingness to pay and welfare.

Cass R. Sunstein

Papers

‘Don't Tell Me What I Can't Do!’ On the Intrinsic Value of Control

O significado do uso de máscaras

Experiments of Living Constitutionalism

Valuing Environmental Labels

Eight Misconceptions About Nudges