Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Improving the design and implementation of evidence-based practice depends on successful behaviour change interventions. This requires an appropriate method for characterising interventions and linking them to an analysis of the targeted behaviour. There exists a plethora of frameworks of behaviour change interventions, but it is not clear how well they serve this purpose. This paper evaluates these frameworks, and develops and evaluates a new framework aimed at overcoming their limitations. A systematic search of electronic databases and consultation with behaviour change experts were used to identify frameworks of behaviour change interventions. These were evaluated according to three criteria: comprehensiveness, coherence, and a clear link to an overarching model of behaviour. A new framework was developed to meet these criteria. The reliability with which it could be applied was examined in two domains of behaviour change: tobacco control and obesity. Nineteen frameworks were identified covering nine intervention functions and seven policy categories that could enable those interventions. None of the frameworks reviewed covered the full range of intervention functions or policies, and only a minority met the criteria of coherence or linkage to a model of behaviour. At the centre of a proposed new framework is a 'behaviour system' involving three essential conditions: capability, opportunity, and motivation (what we term the 'COM-B system'). This forms the hub of a 'behaviour change wheel' (BCW) around which are positioned the nine intervention functions aimed at addressing deficits in one or more of these conditions; around this are placed seven categories of policy that could enable those interventions to occur. The BCW was used reliably to characterise interventions within the English Department of Health's 2010 tobacco control strategy and the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence's guidance on reducing obesity. Interventions and policies to change behaviour can be usefully characterised by means of a BCW comprising: a 'behaviour system' at the hub, encircled by intervention functions and then by policy categories. Research is needed to establish how far the BCW can lead to more efficient design of effective interventions.

/pdf/the-behaviour-change-wheel-a-new-method-for-characterising-4vp816z23u.pdf

The behaviour change wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions.

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

/pdf/international-norm-dynamics-and-political-change-37ig9r9dlq.pdf

International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

Risk as Feelings

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/JudgementAndChoice.MappingBoundedRationality.DKahneman2003.pdf

A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality.

Has the world changed since Nudge? Has Nudge changed the world? I heard behavioral economics was dead. If that is so, then Nudge is having an enviable resurrection – or we are all in heaven. The irrevocably final version of Nudge, published slightly more than a decade after the original (erstwhile subtitled Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness) restores a masterpiece with wit, charm, intellect, reflection and relevance that we have come to expect from the synonymous duo of Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. It remains as informative, aspirational and instructional as the first, reflecting on both how society has changed and what the field of behavioral economics has learned since 2008. While it is unmistakably a second edition of familiar content, it is also undeniably as relevant as ever for necessary reading across the widest possible audience.

Review of Nudge: The Final Edition Paperback –

In resolving conflicts between individual rights and national security, the Supreme Court has often said that Congress must unambiguously authorize presidential action; the Court has also attempted to ensure that defendants are not deprived of their liberty except pursuant to fair trials. These decisions, a form of liberty-promoting minimalism, reject claims of unilateral or exclusive presidential authority. The Court’s decision in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld reflects a distinctive clear statement principle, one that bans the President from convening a military commission, or otherwise departing from the standard adjudicative forms, unless Congress explicitly authorizes him to do so. The Court’s conclusion diverges sharply from a plausible alternative view, which is that in view of the President’s role as Commander-in-Chief, he should be permitted to construe ambiguous enactments as he see fits. The Court’s approach has implications for numerous other problems involved in the war on terror. Most generally, it suggests the need for clear congressional authorization for presidential action that intrudes on liberty or departs from well-established historical practices. More specifically, it significantly weakens the President’s argument on behalf of the legality of warrantless wiretapping by the National Security Agency. The Supreme Court has often declined to answer the most fundamental questions about the relationship between individual rights and national security. Instead it has said that if the executive seeks to enter into constitutionally sensitive domains, or to depart from standard adjudicative forms, clear congressional permission is required. This approach reflects a form of what I shall call liberty-promoting minimalism. It is libertyforcing insofar as it gives liberty the benefit of interpretive doubt. It is minimalist insofar as it avoids the most fundamental issues of constitutional law and to that extent reflects a form of judicial self-restraint. Liberty-promoting minimalism can be found at diverse stages of American history. The oldest example was during the Civil War period, when President Lincoln suspended the writ of habeas corpus; Chief Justice Roger Taney ruled that the President could not suspend the writ on his own. During World War I, Justices Brandeis and Holmes argued not only for use of the first amendment to invalidate legislation, but also * Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, Law School and Department of Political Science, University of Chicago. I am grateful to Eric Posner and David Strauss for valuable comments on a previous draft and to Matthew Tokson for valuable research assistance. 1 See William H. Rehnquist, All the Laws But One 36-38 (1999).

/pdf/clear-statement-principles-and-national-security-hamdan-and-1nckgj3q2j.pdf

Clear Statement Principles and National Security: Hamdan and Beyond

On Bob Dylan

/pdf/social-and-economic-rights-lessons-from-south-3p8b3df79g.pdf

Social and Economic Rights? Lessons from South

Economists who make normative proposals traditionally assume that policy should advance “efficiency,” usually in the Kaldor or Hicks sense, which defines efficiency in terms of whether the project’s winners can hypothetically compensate the project’s losers. A compensation criterion is used because it can be based on ordinal utilities, which puts a smaller information burden on the decision maker than cardinal utilities do. Ordinal utilities, unlike cardinal utilities, can (in principle) be inferred from observations of consumer behavior. By seeing how people trade off goods, willingness-to-pay (or willingness-to-accept) amounts can be derived and summed, so that alternative policy outcomes can be easily compared. This approach has received a great deal of criticism over the decades, but it has survived mainly because no alternative method has commanded widespread agreement. In recent years, however, a small group of economists and psychologists have argued that an alternative method is available. This method, often called the “happiness approach,” relies on surveys that ask people to rate their happiness on a scale. Econometric analysis then finds correlations between ratings on the scale and various characteristics or experiences of the survey respondents—wealth, income, family relationships, and so forth. Though still regarded with skepticism in many quarters, the happiness approach has scored some notable successes. The various factors that are correlated with happiness appear to be robust: they recur in different surveys and are correlated

/pdf/introduction-to-the-conference-on-law-and-happiness-1g32inn7dx.pdf

Cass R. Sunstein

Papers

Review of Nudge: The Final Edition Paperback –

Clear Statement Principles and National Security: Hamdan and Beyond

On Bob Dylan

Social and Economic Rights? Lessons from South

Introduction to the Conference on Law and Happiness