Showing papers by "Claudia Pahl-Wostl published in 2004"

Processes of social learning in integrated resources management

Abstract: In recent years the human dimension and governance issues have gained more and more in importance in the management of natural resources. One important aspect is to understand the processes of social learning that precede any collective decision-making. The HarmoniCOP project developed a framework for social learning for resources management that can be interpreted as combining content management as well as social involvement processes to achieve both technical and relational outcomes. Social learning was taken into account in a new approach called participatory agent based social simulation. Participatory agent based social simulation deviates in a number of ways from conventional modelling. The actors themselves whose behaviour is represented in the model and who are supposed to later use the models for decision-making and strategic planning, participate and contribute to the modelling process. Models serve as tools of communication in processes of social learning. This article reports on a Swiss case study which dealt with the development of new management strategies for urban water management. It will provide examples of how different techniques can be used to establish a process of social learning within a long-term participatory management project using participatory agent-based social simulation. Social learning is highlighted as important for management regimes that require changes in social practices, roles and responsibilities. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Humans transforming the global water system

Abstract: Fresh water figures prominently in the machinery of the Earth system and is key to understanding the full scope of global change. Greenhouse warming with a potentially accelerated hydrologic cycle is already a well-articulated science issue, with strong policy implications. A broad array of other anthropogenic factors—widespread land cover change, engineering of river channels, irrigation and other consumptive losses, aquatic habitat disappearance, and pollution—also influences the water system in direct and important ways. A rich history of site-specific research demonstrates the clear impact of such factors on local environments. Evidence now shows that humans are rapidly intervening in the basic character of the water cycle over much broader domains. The collective significance of these many transformations on both the Earth system and human society remains fundamentally unknown [Framing Committee of the GWSP, 2004].

Complexity and Integrated Resources Management

Abstract: This paper presents some preliminary results with a multi-agents modeling approach to understand the complexity of deforestation in tropical forests. The approach was applied to the study of the deforestation of the Caparo Forest Reserve, in the western part of Venezuela. The model includes, among others, the following types of agents: several instances of settlers, government and lumber concessionaries. Settler agents represent people of limited economical resources that occupied land of the reserve with the aims of improving their socio-economical status and obtaining in the future the property of the occupied land. They use subsistence agriculture and they try to maximize the benefits from the land occupation, without knowing that they could generate ecological or environmental problems such as soil exhaustion, due to inexistent or poor management practices. The lumber concessionaires are represented by companies that are constantly supervised by the State; their work is to exploit the forest using management plans previously approved in agreement with the Government. In addition to the dynamical interactions of the agents, the used approach includes also a cellular automata model for the simulation of the dynamic of the natural system. Both aspects use representational tools developed in house: Galatea [Uzcategui, 2002] for the multi-agents aspects, Actilog [Davila, 2003] a logic language for the description of rules, and SpaSim [Moreno, 2001, 2003] for the Cellular automata aspects.

Heuristics to characterise human behaviour in agent based models

Abstract: Human behaviour is one of the key factors to understand the causes for common pool resource problems and to develop policies to promote more sustainable resource management regimes. Agent based models can help to investigate the role of important processes in this respect such as factors determining the degree of trust and cooperation in a group. We have chosen a pragmatic approach to represent human behaviour by assuming that agents can be characterised by a set of attributes and their behaviour can be described by a set of simple decision heuristics. Individual agents differ in their importance of attributes (e.g. fairness, cooperativeness, trust), in their rules how to choose a heuristic, and in their responses to social interactions. The assumptions are tested by using data from experimental economics describing the behaviour of players in simple games dealing with resource allocation. A set of specific attributes and heuristics was derived by analysing data from different games. The plausibility and generality of the behavioural model is tested by applying it to different data sets from different games. We expect from these simulations insights into behavioural patterns that determine processes of social learning and negotiation. The modelling approach will be applied and tested with data from case studies where actors make decisions in a real world context of dealing with a resource management problem.

Relating Choice of Agent Rationality to Agent Model Uncertainty - an experimental study

Abstract: The importance of model uncertainties arising from different assumptions about human behavior as opposed to parameter uncertainty is often neglected in integrated models for policy development. In this study, so-called agent model uncertainty is estimated in relation to the choice of agent rationality. A classification scheme is proposed which allows us organize decision models according to their deviation from full rationality. Five decision models covering the whole range from full rationality to maximum deviation from rationality (random decisions) are classified. They are then used in an existing integrated model simulating crop fertilizer usage and related threshold policies for groundwater protection. Using this model and the different decision models, two hypotheses are tested: 1) that agent model uncertainty increases with increasing deviation from rationality and 2) that agent model uncertainty increases for all decision models similarly and uniformly in response to an increase in noise in the model. Results are analyzed with respect to changes in policy and with respect to the level of weather influence on crop yield. Results show that agent model uncertainty varies with deviation from the purely rational in a non-linear way. Hypothesis two also does not hold. The degree of sensitivity of results with respect to uncertain parameters that the agent needs to consider is very much dependent on the decision model. Therefore it is suggested to test agent-based models for robustness and validity with respect to agent model uncertainty by using different categories of decision models that sample the range of possible rationalities.

Obstacles in Launching a Participatory Group Discussion and Modelling Process

Abstract: The combination of model-building and group discussions seems to be a promising approach to support learning processes among stakeholders involved in management problems since it allows combining factual analysis and qualitative and quantitative model simulations with an analysis of subjective perceptions and mental models. However, the step of launching such a participatory process might fail due a lack of willingness of the stakeholders to participate in the process. This paper reports about an attempt to involve a specific group of stakeholders and the problems encountered during this process. Although the stakeholders mentioned different reasons, the most important but primarily hidden reason appeared to be the political sensitivity of the issue. In this situation, a sensible alternative for the group model-building process seems to be the construction of the model by the researcher on the basis of single interviews with the stakeholders. Subsequently, the completed model can be offered to the stakeholders as a simulation tool for testing development scenarios and management measures which is assumed to support a learning process and raise the awareness of stakeholders regarding mutual dependencies and the possible need for collective action. Finally, the paper discusses recommendations drawn form these experiences.

The importance of processes of social learning for transboundary water management. Perspectives from the HarmoniCOP project

Abstract: The role of participatory processes are an important characteristic of the governance system. Water governance refers to the range of political, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place to regulate the development and management of water resources and provisions of water services at different levels of society. One important aspect of governance is the role of institutions that can be defined as the formal and informal rules governing the behavior of human beings. Formal institutions include laws and regulations (such as the European Water Framework Directive), formal organisational structures and formal procedures. Informal institutions refer to the rules and norms that are followed and develop in practice. The interaction between formal and informal institutions is an emergent feature of more collaborative governance styles and this interaction is particularly important for transboundary settings.