Aim Global-scale studies are required to identify broad-scale patterns in the distributions of species, to evaluate the processes that determine diversity and to determine how similar or different these patterns and processes are among different groups of freshwater species. Broad-scale patterns of spatial variation in species distribution are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. We aimed to evaluate how congruent three commonly used metrics of diversity were among taxa for six groups of freshwater species. Location Global. Methods We compiled geographical range data on 7083 freshwater species of mammals, amphibians, reptiles, fishes, crabs and crayfish to evaluate how species richness, richness of threatened species and endemism are distributed across freshwater ecosystems. We evaluated how congruent these measures of diversity were among taxa at a global level for a grid cell size of just under 1°. Results We showed that although the risk of extinction faced by freshwater decapods is quite similar to that of freshwater vertebrates, there is a distinct lack of spatial congruence in geographical range between different taxonomic groups at this spatial scale, and a lack of congruence among three commonly used metrics of biodiversity. The risk of extinction for freshwater species was consistently higher than for their terrestrial counterparts. Main conclusions We demonstrate that broad-scale patterns of species richness, threatened-species richness and endemism lack congruence among the six freshwater taxonomic groups examined. Invertebrate species are seldom taken into account in conservation planning. Our study suggests that both the metric of biodiversity and the identity of the taxa on which conservation decisions are based require careful consideration. As geographical range information becomes available for further sets of species, further testing will be warranted into the extent to which geographical variation in the richness of these six freshwater groups reflects broader patterns of biodiversity in fresh water.

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Global patterns of freshwater species diversity, threat and endemism

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_wenger_s001.pdf

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change [includes Supporting Information]

The freshwater and marine fish faunas of South America are the most diverse on Earth, with current species richness estimates standing above 9100 species. In addition, over the last decade at least 100 species were described every year. There are currently about 5160 freshwater fish species, and the estimate for the freshwater fish fauna alone points to a final diversity between 8000 and 9000 species. South America also has c. 4000 species of marine fishes. The mega-diverse fish faunas of South America evolved over a period of >100 million years, with most lineages tracing origins to Gondwana and the adjacent Tethys Sea. This high diversity was in part maintained by escaping the mass extinctions and biotic turnovers associated with Cenozoic climate cooling, the formation of boreal and temperate zones at high latitudes and aridification in many places at equatorial latitudes. The fresh waters of the continent are divided into 13 basin complexes, large basins consolidated as a single unit plus historically connected adjacent coastal drainages, and smaller coastal basins grouped together on the basis of biogeographic criteria. Species diversity, endemism, noteworthy groups and state of knowledge of each basin complex are described. Marine habitats around South America, both coastal and oceanic, are also described in terms of fish diversity, endemism and state of knowledge. Because of extensive land use changes, hydroelectric damming, water divergence for irrigation, urbanization, sedimentation and overfishing 4-10% of all fish species in South America face some degree of extinction risk, mainly due to habitat loss and degradation. These figures suggest that the conservation status of South American freshwater fish faunas is better than in most other regions of the world, but the marine fishes are as threatened as elsewhere. Conserving the remarkable aquatic habitats and fishes of South America is a growing challenge in face of the rapid anthropogenic changes of the 21st century, and deserves attention from conservationists and policy makers.

/pdf/fish-biodiversity-and-conservation-in-south-america-147u8od8hm.pdf

Fish biodiversity and conservation in South America.

Multiple threats imperil freshwater biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

Climate Change Effects on North American Inland Fish Populations and Assemblages

Whereas global patterns and predictors of species diversity are well known for numerous terrestrial taxa, our understanding of freshwater diversity patterns and their predictors is much more limited. Here, we examine spatial concordance in global diversity patterns for five freshwater taxa (i.e. aquatic mammals, aquatic birds, fishes, crayfish and aquatic amphibians) and investigate the environmental factors driving these patterns at the river drainage basin grain. We find that species richness and endemism patterns are significantly correlated among taxa. We also show that cross-taxon congruence patterns are often induced by common responses of taxa to their contemporary and historical environments (i.e. convergent patterns). Apart from some taxa distinctiveness (i.e. fishes), the ‘climate/productivity’ hypothesis is found to explain the greatest variance in species richness and endemism patterns, followed by factors related to the ‘history/dispersion’ and ‘area/environmental heterogeneity’ hypotheses. As aquatic amphibians display the highest levels of congruency with other taxa, this taxon appears to be a good ‘surrogate’ candidate for developing global freshwater conservation planning at the river drainage basin grain.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1365-2656.12018

Global diversity patterns and cross-taxa convergence in freshwater systems.

Aim

Species inhabiting fresh waters are severely affected by climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. Effective management and conservation plans require advances in the accuracy and reliability of species distribution forecasts. Here, we forecast distribution shifts of Salmo trutta based on environmental predictors and examine the effect of using different statistical techniques and varying geographical extents on the performance and extrapolation of the models obtained.



Location

Watercourses of Ebro, Elbe and Danube river basins (c. 1,041,000 km2; Mediterranean and temperate climates, Europe).



Methods

The occurrence of S. trutta and variables of climate, land cover and stream topography were assigned to stream reaches. Data obtained were used to build correlative species distribution models (SDMs) and forecasts for future decades (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) under the A1b emissions scenario, using four statistical techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, random forest, and multivariate adaptive regression).



Results

The SDMs showed an excellent performance. Climate was a better predictor than stream topography, while land cover characteristics were not necessary to improve performance. Forecasts predict the distribution of S. trutta to become increasingly restricted over time. The geographical extent of data had a weak impact on model performance and gain/loss values, but better species response curves were generated using data from all three basins collectively. By 2080, 64% of the stream reaches sampled will be unsuitable habitats for S. trutta, with Elbe basin being the most affected, and virtually no new habitats will be gained in any basin.



Main conclusions

More reliable predictions are obtained when the geographical data used for modelling approximate the environmental range where the species is present. Future research incorporating both correlative and mechanistic approaches may increase robustness and accuracy of predictions.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.12086

Forecasting fish distribution along stream networks: brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Europe

1. Current models estimating impact of habitat loss on biodiversity in the face of global climate change usually project only percentages of species committed to extinction' on an uncertain time-scale. Here, we show that this limitation can be overcome using an empirically derived background extinction rate-area' curve to estimate natural rates and project future rates of freshwater fish extinction following variations in river drainage area resulting from global climate change. 2. Based on future climatic projections, we quantify future active drainage basin area losses and combine them with the extinction rate-area curve to estimate the future change in extinction rate for each river basin. We then project the number of extinct species in each river basin using a global data base of freshwater fish species richness. 3. The median projected extinction rate owing to climate change conditions is c. 7% higher than the median background extinction rate. A closer look at the pattern reveals great geographical variations highlighting an amplification of aridity by 2090 and subsequent increase in extinction rates in presently semi-arid and Mediterranean regions. Among the 10% most-impacted drainage basins, water availability loss will increase background extinction rates by 18.2 times (median value). 4. Projected numbers of extinct species by 2090 show that only 20 river basins among the 1010 analysed would experience fish species extinctions attributable to water availability loss from climate change. Predicted numbers of extinct species for these rivers range from 1 to 5. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results strongly contrast with previous alarming predictions of huge surface-dependent climate change-driven extinctions for riverine fishes and other taxonomic groups. Furthermore, based on well-documented fish extinctions from Central and North American drainages over the last century, we also show that recent extinction rates are, on average, 130 times greater than our projected extinction rates from climate change. This last result implies that current anthropogenic threats generate extinction rates in rivers far greater than the ones expected from future water availability loss. We thus argue that conservation actions should be preferentially focused on reducing the impacts of present-day anthropogenic drivers of riverine fish extinctions.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1365-2664.12125

Clément Tisseuil

Papers

Global diversity patterns and cross-taxa convergence in freshwater systems.

Forecasting fish distribution along stream networks: brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Europe

A scenario for impacts of water availability loss due to climate change on riverine fish extinction rates