Craig A. Stow

TL;DR: A Bayesian network integrating models of the various processes involved in eutrophication in the Neuse River estuary, North Carolina is described, suggesting that a compromise is necessary between policy relevance and predictive precision, and that, to select defensible environmental management strategies, public officials must adopt decision-making methods that deal explicitly with scientific uncertainty.

TL;DR: The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize the authors' limitations.

TL;DR: MacroSystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales as mentioned in this paper, which addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales.

TL;DR: Multi-year observations from western Lake Erie are presented demonstrating that microcystin concentrations peak in parallel with inorganic N, but not orthophosphate, concentrations and are significantly lower during years of reduced inorganic nitrogen loading and concentrations, which supports the premise that management actions to reduce P in the absence of concurrent restrictions on N loading may not effectively control the growth and/or toxicity of non-diazotrophic toxic cyanobacteria.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare BMC and MCMCMCMC and demonstrate that BMC is extremely inefficient in the sense that the prior parameter distribution, from which the BMC sample is drawn, is often a poor surrogate for the posterior parameter distribution.