Showing papers by "Grant Nguyen published in 2018"
Gregory A. Roth1, Gregory A. Roth2, Degu Abate3, Kalkidan Hassen Abate4 +1025 more•Institutions (333)
TL;DR: Non-communicable diseases comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2).
5,211 citations
Jeffrey D. Stanaway1, Ashkan Afshin1, Emmanuela Gakidou1, Stephen S Lim1 +1050 more•Institutions (346)
TL;DR: This study estimated levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017 and explored the relationship between development and risk exposure.
2,910 citations
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 as mentioned in this paper was the most recent iteration of the GBD, which used all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups.
638 citations
TL;DR: The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between1990 and 2000.
623 citations
TL;DR: In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women, and there was geographic variation in the lifetime risk, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low- SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe.
556 citations
TL;DR: A global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends and a estimates of health-related SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous.
312 citations
Christopher J L Murray1, Charlton S K H Callender1, Xie Rachel Kulikoff1, Vinay Srinivasan1 +1092 more•Institutions (424)
TL;DR: This work estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods and used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data.
287 citations
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation1, University of Washington2, Jimma University3, Cairo University4, University of Western Australia5, University of Cartagena6, Karolinska Institutet7, Mekelle University8, Public Health Foundation of India9, University of Gondar10, University of Belgrade11, Harvard University12, Jazan University13, University of Oxford14, University of São Paulo15, University of Valencia16, Kazakh National Medical University17, University of Peradeniya18, International Institute for Population Sciences19, University of the Philippines Manila20, University of Louisville21, Auckland University of Technology22, Catholic University of Portugal23, Wageningen University and Research Centre24, University of Massachusetts Boston25, Mizan–Tepi University26, Debre markos University27, Tehran University of Medical Sciences28, New York Medical College29, Islamic University30, Ball State University31, Northeastern University32, Brown University33, Uppsala University34, University of Haifa35, Mansoura University36, Chinese Academy of Sciences37, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg38, United Nations Population Fund39, National Institutes of Health40, University of Melbourne41, Kyrgyz State Medical Academy42, Ahmadu Bello University43, Columbia University44, University of Ibadan45, University of British Columbia46, BRAC47, University of Sydney48, University of Maragheh49, University of KwaZulu-Natal50, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina51, University of Western Ontario52, Addis Ababa University53, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research54, Jagiellonian University Medical College55, University of Copenhagen56, Cleveland Clinic57, Hospital Sant Joan de Déu Barcelona58, National Research University – Higher School of Economics59, Norwegian Institute of Public Health60, Royal Children's Hospital61, King's College London62, Nanjing University63, University of Mississippi Medical Center64, University of Hong Kong65, Kyoto University66, Jackson State University67, Wuhan University68
TL;DR: Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden, and increases in risk-deleted CVD DALY rates between 2006 and 2016 in 16 states suggest additional unmeasured risks beyond these traditional factors.
Abstract: Importance Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously. Objective To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes. Design, Setting, and Participants Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017. Exposures Residing in the United States. Main Outcomes and Measures Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results Between 1990 and 2016, age-standardized CVD DALYs for all states decreased. Several states had large rises in their relative rank ordering for total CVD DALYs among states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The rate of decline varied widely across states, and CVD burden increased for a small number of states in the most recent years. Cardiovascular disease DALYs remained twice as large among men compared with women. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD DALYs in all states, but the second most common varied by state. Trends were driven by 12 groups of risk factors, with the largest attributable CVD burden due to dietary risk exposures followed by high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high total cholesterol level, high fasting plasma glucose level, tobacco smoking, and low levels of physical activity. Increases in risk-deleted CVD DALY rates between 2006 and 2016 in 16 states suggest additional unmeasured risks beyond these traditional factors. Conclusions and Relevance Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden. Differences in CVD burden are largely attributable to modifiable risk exposures.
261 citations