THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques.

Part I. Experimental Studies: 2. Experiment in psychology 3. Experiments on perceiving III Experiments on imaging 4-8. Experiments on remembering: (a) The method of description (b) The method of repeated reproduction (c) The method of picture writing (d) The method of serial reproduction (e) The method of serial reproduction picture material 9. Perceiving, recognizing, remembering 10. A theory of remembering 11. Images and their functions 12. Meaning Part II. Remembering as a Study in Social Psychology: 13. Social psychology 14. Social psychology and the matter of recall 15. Social psychology and the manner of recall 16. Conventionalism 17. The notion of a collective unconscious 18. The basis of social recall 19. A summary and some conclusions.

Remembering. A Study in Experimental and Social Psychology, Cambridge (University Press) 1964.

The 2008 crash has left all the established economic doctrines - equilibrium models, real business cycles, disequilibria models - in disarray. Part of the problem is due to Smith’s "veil of ignorance": individuals unknowingly pursue society’s interest and, as a result, have no clue as to the macroeconomic effects of their actions: witness the Keynes and Leontief multipliers, the concept of value added, fiat money, Engel’s law and technical progress, to name but a few of the macrofoundations of microeconomics. A good viewpoint to take bearings anew lies in comparing the post-Great Depression institutions with those emerging from Thatcher and Reagan’s economic policies: deregulation, exogenous vs. endoge- nous money, shadow banking vs. Volcker’s Rule. Very simply, the banks, whose lending determined deposits after Roosevelt, and were a public service became private enterprises whose deposits determine lending. These underlay the great moderation preceding 2006, and the subsequent crash.

The Economic Institutions of Capitalism

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The Theory of Industrial Organization

Two aspects of designing a computer-based system for group decision making are discussed in this paper. The first is the procedure a system uses, which should be able to handle diffrent decision problems and which should support decision-makers who represent different types of behaviour. The second aspect is the user-system interface; it should possess features which increase system flexibility and expandability, and it should make possible the customization of the system.

Two Aspects of Group Decision Support System Design

Negotiation is a powerful mechanism for facilitating effective economic exchanges. Electronic negotiations allow participants to negotiate online and use analytical support tools in making their decisions. Software agents offer the possibility of automating negotiation process using these tools. This paper aims at investigating the prospects of agent-to-human negotiations in B2C contexts using experiments with human subjects. Various types of agents have been configured and paired up with human counterparts for negotiating product sale. The paper discusses the results obtained both in terms of objective, as well as subjective measures.

Human–Software Agent Negotiations: An Experimental Study

INSPIRE is a Web-based system for the support and conduct of negotiation. The primary uses of the system are training and research. Between July 1996 and April 1997, 281 bilateral negotiations were conducted through the system by managers, engineers, and students from over 50 countries. INSPIRE has been used at eight universities and training centers. In research it is being used to study cross-cultural differences in decision making and the use of computer support in negotiation. This paper outlines the system, the negotiation methodology embedded in it, and reports the initial results of the experimental study of the impact of culture on Web-based bilateral negotiation.

Negotiation Via the World Wide Web: A Cross-Cultural Study of Decision Making

Reforestation is a complex sequential decision problem involving ecological and socio-economic considerations. Decision support systems developed to support reforestation managers often address a part of the problem and do not support the development of the problem representation. Thus, they require that reforestation managers possess a significant amount of analytical knowledge necessary to build quantitative models and analyze their solutions. In this paper we present a framework for a reforestation decision support which is based on restructurable modeling. The focus is on the support for the development of problem representation leading to a multiple-criteria optimization model. A simple example is used to illustrate the framework. >

Representation and support of reforestation processes

It is typical for an autonomous agent to make decisions in the presence of other agents who respond, react to his action's and undertake actions independently of the agent's decisions. Also, the decision environment is often dynamic and certain changes cannot be forseen. This requires the agent to have an ability to recognize and interpret the situation he faces. The agent needs additional abilities to evaluate the implemented decisions, assess the actions of the others and determine the representation of his current decision problem. This paper gives a formal account of an agent who has specific cognitive and representational abilities required to make sequential decisions in co-operative settings. The restructurable modelling methodology, presented here, has been implemented in the Negoplan system and applied to the simulation, analysis and support of negotiations, patient diagnosis and treatment, investment scenario development, planning and distributed decision-making.

Gregory E. Kersten

Papers

Two Aspects of Group Decision Support System Design

Human–Software Agent Negotiations: An Experimental Study

Negotiation Via the World Wide Web: A Cross-Cultural Study of Decision Making

Representation and support of reforestation processes

Formal Account of Sequential Decision-Making in a Co-Operative Setting