THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides access to information on a variety of topics related to the environment and strives to inform citizens of health risks. The EPA also has an extensive library network that consists of 26 libraries throughout the United States, which provide access to a plethora of information to EPA employees, scientists, and researchers. The EPA implemented a reorganization project to digitize their materials so they would be more accessible to a wider range of users, but this plan was drastically accelerated when the EPA was threatened with a budget cut. It chose to close and reduce the hours and services of some of their libraries. As a result, the agency was accused of denying users the “right to know” by making information unavailable, not providing an adequate strategic plan, and discarding vital materials. This case study explores the background of the digitization project, the practices implemented, and the critiques of the project.

/pdf/the-environmental-protection-agency-3gx4opzrjm.pdf

The Environmental Protection Agency

The science of the total environment

Surrogate-based Analysis and Optimization

Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems

Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food-safety risk assessment models, are presented in this article. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods, and one graphical method, are identified. The selected methods are compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. Applications of these methods are illustrated with examples from various fields. No one method is clearly best for food-safety risk models. In general, use of two or more methods, preferably with dissimilar theoretical foundations, may be needed to increase confidence in the ranking of key inputs.

Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Introduction. A Basic Framework for Probabilistic Analysis. Approaches to Model Uncertainty. Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty in Model Inputs. Data and Distributions. Special Topics Related to Distribution Development. Probabilistic Modeling Techniques. Identifying Key Contributors to Variability and Uncertainty in Model Outputs. An Illustrative Case Study of the Application of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment. Glossary. Index.

Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs

A study design procedure was developed and demonstrated for the deployment of portable onboard tailpipe emissions measurement systems for selected highway vehicles fueled by gasoline and E85 (a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline). Data collection, screening, processing, and analysis protocols were developed to assure data quality and to provide insights regarding quantification of real-world intravehicle variability in hot-stabilized emissions. Onboard systems provide representative real-world emissions measurements; however, onboard field studies are challenged by the observable but uncontrollable nature of traffic flow and ambient conditions. By characterizing intravehicle variability based on repeated data collection runs with the same driver/vehicle/route combinations, this study establishes the ability to develop stable modal emissions rates for idle, acceleration, cruise, and deceleration even in the face of uncontrollable external factors. For example, a consistent finding is that average emissions during acceleration are typically 5 times greater than during idle for hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide and 10 times greater for nitric oxide and carbon monoxide. A statistical method for comparing on-road emissions of different drivers is presented. Onboard data demonstrate the importance of accounting for the episodic nature of real-world emissions to help develop appropriate traffic and air quality management strategies.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10473289.2003.10466245

On-Road Measurement of Vehicle Tailpipe Emissions Using a Portable Instrument

The objective here is to quantify the variability in emissions of selected light duty gasoline vehicles by routes, time of day, road grade, and vehicle with a focus on the impact of routes and road grade. Field experiments using a portable emission measurement system were conducted under real-world driving cycles. The study area included two origin/destination pairs, each with three alternative routes. Total emissions varied from trip to trip and from route to route due to variations in average speed and travel time. On an average trip basis, the total NO emissions differed by 24% when comparing alternative routes and by 19% when comparing congested travel time with less congested traffic time. Positive road grades were associated with an approximately 20% increase in localized emissions rates, while negative road grades were associated with a similar relative decrease. The average vehicle-specific power based NO modal emission rates differed by more than 2 orders of magnitude when comparing different vehicles. The results demonstrate that alternative routing can significantly impact trip emissions. Furthermore, road grade should be taken into account for localized emissions estimation. Vehicle-specific models are needed to capture episodic effects of emissions for near-road short-term human exposure assessment.

H. Christopher Frey

Papers

Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods

Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs

On-Road Measurement of Vehicle Tailpipe Emissions Using a Portable Instrument

Fuel use and emissions comparisons for alternative routes, time of day, road grade, and vehicles based on in-use measurements.

Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain