Imre Berki

TL;DR: It is shown that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate, and increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change.

Abstract: The aim of this study is to provide quantitative in formation on the effect of climatic change on the growth and vitality of European beech : although the species is considered in its optimum highly plastic and adaptable, it becomes cl imate-sensitive closer to its xeric (lower) distribution limits. The future of beech in Southea st Europe requires special attention because this region harbours significant populations living at o r near their xeric distribution boundary. Even thou gh the low elevation occurrences are uniquely vulnerab le to climatic shifts, observations and modelling studies pertaining to this region are particularly scarce. Out of climatic factors determining the xeric distr ibutional limits for beech, Ellenberg's drought index ( EQ ) appeared as the most influential. Growth response analyses in comparative tests have confirmed the existence of macroclimatic adaptation of beech and have proven that warming and more arid conditions lead to decline of growth and vital ity, while no decline was observed if EQ changed in the opposite direction. The response to weather ext remes was investigated in field plots. Recurrent summer droughts of 3 to 4 consecutive years, above mean EQ value 40-42 resulted in pest and disease attacks and mass mortality. The discussed approaches indicate consistently a hi gh level of uncertainty regarding the future of beech at the xeric limit in Southeast Europe. Accor ding to field observations and bioclimatic data in Hungary, a large part of low-elevation beech forest s presently in the zone of EQ index �20 might be threatened by the warming in the second half of the century, while higher-elevation occurrences may remain stable. The interpretation of the results bears some stipul ations, such as the consequence of ecological and human interactions in influencing present distr ibution patterns, the unclear role of persistence, natural selection and plasticity and uncertainties of climate projections. Grim projections may probably be partly overwritten by the mentioned sti pulations and by careful and prudent human support. genetic adaptation / climate change / drought toler ance / range retraction / xeric limits

TL;DR: This work quantifies how individual species trajectories scale up to diversity changes using data from 68 vegetation resurvey studies of seminatural forests in Europe, and suggests that Herb-layer species with small geographic ranges are being replaced by more widely distributed species.

TL;DR: Drought may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage, in a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate, and used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made.