▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3].

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1192&context=scipapers

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few leverage species may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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SYNTHESES The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems

Mangroves are woody plants that grow at the interface between land and sea in tropical and sub-tropical latitudes where they exist in conditions of high salinity, extreme tides, strong winds, high temperatures and muddy, anaerobic soils. There may be no other group of plants with such highly developed morphological and physiological adaptations to extreme conditions.

Because of their environment, mangroves are necessarily tolerant of high salt levels and have mechanisms to take up water despite strong osmotic potentials. Some also take up salts, but excrete them through specialized glands in the leaves. Others transfer salts into senescent leaves or store them in the bark or the wood. Still others simply become increasingly conservative in their water use as water salinity increases Morphological specializations include profuse lateral roots that anchor the trees in the loose sediments, exposed aerial roots for gas exchange and viviparous waterdispersed propagules.

Mangroves create unique ecological environments that host rich assemblages of species. The muddy or sandy sediments of the mangal are home to a variety of epibenthic, infaunal, and meiofaunal invertebrates Channels within the mangal support communities of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish. The mangal may play a special role as nursery habitat for juveniles of fish whose adults occupy other habitats (e.g. coral reefs and seagrass beds).

Because they are surrounded by loose sediments, the submerged mangroves' roots, trunks and branches are islands of habitat that may attract rich epifaunal communities including bacteria, fungi, macroalgae and invertebrates. The aerial roots, trunks, leaves and branches host other groups of organisms. A number of crab species live among the roots, on the trunks or even forage in the canopy. Insects, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals thrive in the habitat and contribute to its unique character.

Living at the interface between land and sea, mangroves are well adapted to deal with natural stressors (e.g. temperature, salinity, anoxia, UV). However, because they live close to their tolerance limits, they may be particularly sensitive to disturbances like those created by human activities. Because of their proximity to population centers, mangals have historically been favored sites for sewage disposal. Industrial effluents have contributed to heavy metal contamination in the sediments. Oil from spills and from petroleum production has flowed into many mangals. These insults have had significant negative effects on the mangroves.

Habitat destruction through human encroachment has been the primary cause of mangrove loss. Diversion of freshwater for irrigation and land reclamation has destroyed extensive mangrove forests. In the past several decades, numerous tracts of mangrove have been converted for aquaculture, fundamentally altering the nature of the habitat. Measurements reveal alarming levels of mangrove destruction. Some estimates put global loss rates at one million ha y−1, with mangroves in some regions in danger of complete collapse. Heavy historical exploitation of mangroves has left many remaining habitats severely damaged.

These impacts are likely to continue, and worsen, as human populations expand further into the mangals. In regions where mangrove removal has produced significant environmental problems, efforts are underway to launch mangrove agroforestry and agriculture projects. Mangrove systems require intensive care to save threatened areas. So far, conservation and management efforts lag behind the destruction; there is still much to learn about proper management and sustainable harvesting of mangrove forests.

Mangroves have enormous ecological value. They protect and stabilize coastlines, enrich coastal waters, yield commercial forest products and support coastal fisheries. Mangrove forests are among the world's most productive ecosystems, producing organic carbon well in excess of the ecosystem requirements and contributing significantly to the global carbon cycle. Extracts from mangroves and mangrove-dependent species have proven activity against human, animal and plant pathogens. Mangroves may be further developed as sources of high-value commercial products and fishery resources and as sites for a burgeoning ecotourism industry. Their unique features also make them ideal sites for experimental studies of biodiversity and ecosystem function. Where degraded areas are being revegetated, continued monitoring and thorough assessment must be done to help understand the recovery process. This knowledge will help develop strategies to promote better rehabilitation of degraded mangrove habitats the world over and ensure that these unique ecosystems survive and flourish.

Biology of mangroves and mangrove Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed

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Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Understanding the broad-scale ramifications of accelerated sea level rise requires maps of the land that could be inundated or eroded. Producing such maps requires a combination of ele- vation information and models of shoreline erosion, wetland accretion, and other coastal processes. Assessments of coastal areas in the United States that combine all of these factors have focused on relatively small areas, usually 25 to 30 km wide. In many cases, the results are as sensitive to uncer- tainty regarding geological processes as to the rate of sea level rise. This paper presents maps illus- trating the elevations of lands close to sea level. Although elevation contours do not necessarily coin- cide with future shorelines, the former is more transparent and less dependent on subjective modeling. Several methods are available for inferring elevations given limited data. This paper uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) 1° digital elevation series and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shoreline data to illustrate the land below the 1.5 and 3.5 m contours for areas the size of entire US states or larger. The maps imply that approximately 58 000 km 2 of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts lie below the 1.5 m contour. Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and North Carolina account for more than 80% of the low land. Outside of those 4 states, the largest vulnerable populated region is the land along the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay stretching from Dorchester County, Maryland, to Accomac County, Virginia.

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Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts

This document is part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan. The U.S. Government's CCSP is responsible for providing the best science-based knowledge possible to inform management of the risks and opportunities associated with changes in the climate and related environmental systems. To support its mission, the CCSP has commissioned 21 "synthesis and assessment products" (SAPs) to advance decision making on climate change-related issues by providing current evaluations of climate change science and identifying priorities for research, observation, and decision support. This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation.

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Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

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James G. Titus

Papers

Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts

Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region

Rising Seas, Coastal Erosion, and the Takings Clause: How to Save Wetlands and Beaches Without Hurting Property Owners

Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise