From the Publisher:
This is the first comprehensive treatment of feed-forward neural networks from the perspective of statistical pattern recognition. After introducing the basic concepts, the book examines techniques for modelling probability density functions and the properties and merits of the multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function network models. Also covered are various forms of error functions, principal algorithms for error function minimalization, learning and generalization in neural networks, and Bayesian techniques and their applications. Designed as a text, with over 100 exercises, this fully up-to-date work will benefit anyone involved in the fields of neural computation and pattern recognition.

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Neural networks for pattern recognition

The architecture and learning procedure underlying ANFIS (adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system) is presented, which is a fuzzy inference system implemented in the framework of adaptive networks. By using a hybrid learning procedure, the proposed ANFIS can construct an input-output mapping based on both human knowledge (in the form of fuzzy if-then rules) and stipulated input-output data pairs. In the simulation, the ANFIS architecture is employed to model nonlinear functions, identify nonlinear components on-line in a control system, and predict a chaotic time series, all yielding remarkable results. Comparisons with artificial neural networks and earlier work on fuzzy modeling are listed and discussed. Other extensions of the proposed ANFIS and promising applications to automatic control and signal processing are also suggested. >

ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system

https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf

Deep learning in neural networks

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the ‘hat’ matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding pD to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.

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Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

We propose a network architecture which uses a single internal layer of locally-tuned processing units to learn both classification tasks and real-valued function approximations (Moody and Darken 1988). We consider training such networks in a completely supervised manner, but abandon this approach in favor of a more computationally efficient hybrid learning method which combines self-organized and supervised learning. Our networks learn faster than backpropagation for two reasons: the local representations ensure that only a few units respond to any given input, thus reducing computational overhead, and the hybrid learning rules are linear rather than nonlinear, thus leading to faster convergence. Unlike many existing methods for data analysis, our network architecture and learning rules are truly adaptive and are thus appropriate for real-time use.

Fast learning in networks of locally-tuned processing units

We present an analysis of how the generalization performance (expected test set error) relates to the expected training set error for nonlinear learning systems, such as multilayer perceptrons and radial basis functions. The principal result is the following relationship (computed to second order) between the expected test set and training set errors: 〈etest(λ)〉ξξ′ ≈ 〈etrain(λ)〉ξ + 2σeff2 peff(λ)/n (1) Here, n is the size of the training sample ξ, σeff2 is the effective noise variance in the response variable(s), λ, is a regularization or weight decay parameter, and Peff(λ) is the effective number of parameters in the nonlinear model. The expectations 〈 〉 of training set and test set errors are taken over possible training sets ξ and training and test sets ξ′ respectively. The effective number of parameters peff(λ) usually differs from the true number of model parameters p for nonlinear or regularized models; this theoretical conclusion is supported by Monte Carlo experiments. In addition to the surprising result that peff(λ) ≠ p, we propose an estimate of (1) called the generalized prediction error (GPE) which generalizes well established estimates of prediction risk such as Akaike's F P E and AIC, Mallows Cp, and Barron's P S E to the nonlinear setting.

/pdf/the-effective-number-of-parameters-an-analysis-of-4c6s7p6a1d.pdf

The Effective Number of Parameters: An Analysis of Generalization and Regularization in Nonlinear Learning Systems

We present methods for optimizing portfolios, asset allocations, and trading systems based on direct reinforcement (DR). In this approach, investment decision-making is viewed as a stochastic control problem, and strategies are discovered directly. We present an adaptive algorithm called recurrent reinforcement learning (RRL) for discovering investment policies. The need to build forecasting models is eliminated, and better trading performance is obtained. The direct reinforcement approach differs from dynamic programming and reinforcement algorithms such as TD-learning and Q-learning, which attempt to estimate a value function for the control problem. We find that the RRL direct reinforcement framework enables a simpler problem representation, avoids Bellman's curse of dimensionality and offers compelling advantages in efficiency. We demonstrate how direct reinforcement can be used to optimize risk-adjusted investment returns (including the differential Sharpe ratio), while accounting for the effects of transaction costs. In extensive simulation work using real financial data, we find that our approach based on RRL produces better trading strategies than systems utilizing Q-learning (a value function method). Real-world applications include an intra-daily currency trader and a monthly asset allocation system for the S&P 500 Stock Index and T-Bills.

/pdf/learning-to-trade-via-direct-reinforcement-1iwqw02j8r.pdf

Learning to trade via direct reinforcement

The forces mediated by spin-0 bosons are described, along with the existing experimental limits. The mass and couplings of the invisible axion are derived, followed by suggestions for experiments to detect axions via the macroscopic forces they mediate. In particular, novel tests of the T-violating axion monopole-dipole forces are proposed.

New macroscopic forces

Data visualization and feature selection methods are proposed based on the joint mutual information and ICA. The visualization methods can find many good 2-D projections for high dimensional data interpretation, which cannot be easily found by the other existing methods. The new variable selection method is found to be better in eliminating redundancy in the inputs than other methods based on simple mutual information. The efficacy of the methods is illustrated on a radar signal analysis problem to find 2-D viewing coordinates for data visualization and to select inputs for a neural network classifier.

/pdf/data-visualization-and-feature-selection-new-algorithms-for-f4canklcjo.pdf

John Moody

Papers

Fast learning in networks of locally-tuned processing units

The Effective Number of Parameters: An Analysis of Generalization and Regularization in Nonlinear Learning Systems

Learning to trade via direct reinforcement

New macroscopic forces

Data Visualization and Feature Selection: New Algorithms for Nongaussian Data