Showing papers by "John P. Weyant published in 2014"

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies.

Abstract: This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

Abstract: This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.

Preface and introduction to EMF 27

Abstract: This Special issue of Climatic Change documents the main findings of Energy Modeling Forum Model Inter-comparison Project (MIP) number 27 (EMF 27) entitled “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies”. This study focused on the development and cross model comparison of results from a new generation of comprehensive international climate policy intervention scenarios focusing on technology strategies for achieving climate policy objectives. These scenarios enabled the community to exercise enhanced modeling capabilities that were focused on in previous EMF studies on the international trade implications of climate policies; the representation of technological change; and the incorporation of multi-gas mitigation and land use emissions and mitigation policy alternatives. This introduction has four objectives: (1) describe the motivation for the EMF 27 study, (2) put this study in the context of other past and current IAM inter-model comparison projects, (3) describe the structure of this special issue of Climatic Change, and (4) give a brief overview of the insights developed in the papers produced by the individual modeling teams that are included in this special issue. EMF 27 focused on the interactions between climate change policy architectures and advanced energy technology availabilities at global scale. It followed on previous EMF climate change oriented Model Inter-comparison Projects (MIPs): EMF 12 on carbon emission limits (EMF 12 1993; Gaskins and Weyant 1993; Weyant 1993), EMF 14 on carbon concentration limits (EMF 14 1996; Haites et al. 1997), EMF 16 on the costs and energy system impacts of the Kyoto Protocol (Weyant 1999), EMF 19 on carbon constraints and advanced energy technologies (Weyant 2004), EMF 21 on non-CO2 Kyoto gas mitigation (de la Chesnaye andWeyant 2006), and EMF 22 on climate control scenarios (focusing on phased participation in a climate mitigation coalitions and the possibility overshooting long run climate targets (Clarke et al. 2009; Fawcett et al. 2009)). As such, this study was able to take advantage of all Climatic Change (2014) 123:345–352 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1102-7

Technology and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results of the EMF 24 Modeling Exercise

Abstract: This paper discusses Technology and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results of the EMF 24 Modeling Exercise

Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature

Abstract: This paper reviews applications of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in climate policy assessment at the US national and global scales. Two different but related major application types are addressed. First there are global-scale analyses that focus on calculating optimal global carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare. The second application is the use of the same tools to compute the social cost of carbon (SCC) for use in US regulatory processes. The SCC is defined as the climate damages attributable to an increase of one metric ton of carbon dioxide emissions above a baseline emissions trajectory that assumes no new climate policies. The paper describes the three main quantitative models that have been used in the optimal carbon policy and SCC calculations and then summarizes the range of results that have been produced using them. The results span an extremely broad range (up to an order of magnitude) across modeling platforms as well as across the plausible ranges of input assumptions to a single model. This broad range of results sets the stage for a discussion of the five key challenges that face BCA practitioners participating in the national and global climate change policy analysis arenas: (1) including the possibility of catastrophic outcomes; (2) factoring in equity and income distribution considerations; (3) addressing intertemporal discounting and intergenerational equity; (4) projecting baseline demographics, technological change, and policies inside and outside the energy sector; and (5) characterizing the full set of uncertainties to be dealt with and designing a decision-making process that updates and adapts new scientific and economic information into that process in a timely and productive manner. The paper closes by describing how the BCA models have been useful in climate policy discussions to date despite the uncertainties that pervade the results that have been produced.

Energy efficiency potentials for global climate change mitigation

Abstract: Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010–2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3–2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations’ “Sustainable Energy for All” initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution.

Dynamically Estimating the Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy with NEMS: A Case Study of the Climate Protection Act of 2013

Abstract: We present a new method that enables users of the federal government’s flagship energy policy model (NEMS) to dynamically estimate the direct cost impacts of climate policy across U.S. household incomes and census regions. Our approach combines NEMS output with detailed household expenditure data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, improving on static methods that assess policy impacts by assuming household energy demand remains unchanged under emissions pricing scenarios. To illustrate our method, we evaluate a recent carbon fee-and-dividend proposal introduced in the U.S. Senate, the Climate Protection Act of 2013 (S. 332). Our analysis indicates this bill, if enacted, would have cut CO2 emissions from energy by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 at a gross cost of less than 0.5% of GDP, while simultaneously reducing direct energy expenditures for typical households making less than $120,000 per year and average households in all regions of the United States.

Long-term Energy Planning In California: Insights and Future Modeling Needs

Abstract: Jurisdictions throughout the world are contemplating greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation strategies that will enable meeting long-term GHG targets; many jurisdictions are now focusing on the 2020-2050 timeframe. The authors conduct an inter-model comparison of nine California statewide energy models with GHG mitigation scenarios to 2050 to better understand common insights across models, ranges of intermediate GHG targets (i.e. for 2030), necessary technology deployment rates, and future modeling needs for the state. The models are diverse in their representation of the California economy: across scenarios with deep reductions in GHGs by 2050, annual statewide GHG emissions are 8-46% lower than 1990 levels by 2030 and 59-84% by 2050; the largest cumulative reductions occur in scenarios that favor earlier reductions; non-hydroelectric renewables account for 30%-54% of all electricity generated for the state in 2030 and 59-89% by 2050; the transportation sector is decarbonized using a mix of energy efficiency gains and alternative-fueled vehicles; and bioenergy is directed towards the transportation sector, accounting for a maximum of 40% of transportation energy by 2050. Models suggest that without new policy, emissions from other non-energy sectors and from high-global-warming-potential gases may exceed California’s 2050 GHG goal. Finally, high priority areas of future model development include: implementation of uncertainty analysis, improved representation of economic impacts and logistical feasibility of given scenarios, simultaneous modeling of criteria and GHG emissions, and greater modeling of interactions between two or more specific policies.