抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1（PfPMP1）与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用，在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员，通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Statistical physics has proven to be a fruitful framework to describe phenomena outside the realm of traditional physics. Recent years have witnessed an attempt by physicists to study collective phenomena emerging from the interactions of individuals as elementary units in social structures. A wide list of topics are reviewed ranging from opinion and cultural and language dynamics to crowd behavior, hierarchy formation, human dynamics, and social spreading. The connections between these problems and other, more traditional, topics of statistical physics are highlighted. Comparison of model results with empirical data from social systems are also emphasized.

Statistical physics of social dynamics

To test simulation models of pedestrian flows, we have performed experiments for corridors, bottleneck areas, and intersections. Our evaluations of video recordings show that the geometric boundary conditions are not only relevant for the capacity of the elements of pedestrian facilities, they also influence the time gap distribution of pedestrians, indicating the existence of self-organization phenomena. After calibration of suitable models, these findings can be used to improve design elements of pedestrian facilities and egress routes. It turns out that "obstacles" can stabilize flow patterns and make them more fluid. Moreover, intersecting flows can be optimized, utilizing the phenomenon of "stripe formation." We also suggest increasing diameters of egress routes in stadia, theaters, and lecture halls to avoid long waiting times for people in the back, and shock waves due to impatience in cases of emergency evacuation. Moreover, zigzag-shaped geometries and columns can reduce the pressure in panicking crowds. The proposed design solutions are expected to increase the efficiency and safety of train stations, airport terminals, stadia, theaters, public buildings, and mass events in the future. As application examples we mention the evacuation of passenger ships and the simulation of pilgrim streams on the Jamarat bridge. Adaptive escape guidance systems, optimal way systems, and simulations of urban pedestrian flows are addressed as well.

https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/trsc.1040.0108

Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowd Dynamics: Experiments, Simulations, and Design Solutions

This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol’s method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent. Mathematical modeling of complex systems often requires sensitivity analysis to determine how an output variable of interest is influenced by individual or subsets of input variables. A traditional local sensitivity analysis entails gradients or derivatives, often invoked in design optimization, describing changes in the model response due to the local variation of input. Depending on the model output, obtaining gradients or derivatives, if they exist, can be simple or difficult. In contrast, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), increasingly becoming mainstream, characterizes how the global variation of input, due to its uncertainty, impacts the overall uncertain behavior of the model. In other words, GSA constitutes the study of how the output uncertainty from a mathematical model is divvied up, qualitatively or quantitatively, to distinct sources of input variation in the model [1].

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Despite a century of effort, our understanding of how cities evolve is still woefully inadequate. Recent research, however, suggests that cities are complex systems that mainly grow from the bottom up, their size and shape following well-defined scaling laws that result from intense competition for space. An integrated theory of how cities evolve, linking urban economics and transportation behavior to developments in network science, allometric growth, and fractal geometry, is being slowly developed. This science provides new insights into the resource limits facing cities in terms of the meaning of density, compactness, and sprawl, and related questions of sustainability. It has the potential to enrich current approaches to city planning and replace traditional top-down strategies with realistic city plans that benefit all city dwellers.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/319/5864/769.full.pdf

The size, scale, and shape of cities.

We study cascading failures in networks using a dynamical flow model based on simple conservation and distribution laws. It is found that considering the flow dynamics may imply reduced network robustness compared to previous static overload failure models. This is due to the transient oscillations or overshooting in the loads, when the flow dynamics adjusts to the new (remaining) network structure. The robustness of networks showing cascading failures is generally given by a complex interplay between the network topology and flow dynamics.

/pdf/transient-dynamics-increasing-network-vulnerability-to-1mnpfeqlij.pdf

Transient Dynamics Increasing Network Vulnerability to Cascading Failures

We present a model for the dynamic spreading of failures in networked systems. The model combines network nodes as active, bistable elements and delayed interactions along directed links. By means of simulations, we explore the timedependent spreading and cascade failures in different network topologies. The results of these simulations point towards a phase transition in the spreading dynamics that depends on node parameters and network topology. In particular, we observe a critical threshold for node recovery. Below this threshold, any disturbance propagates only through a small fraction of the network. The size of this perturbed fraction is determined numerically. Furthermore, we discuss the robustness of networks challenged by coinciding internal failures. Our model may be used to improve disaster preparedness and anticipative disaster response management. r 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Dynamics of Disaster Spreading in Networks

Here, we uncover the load and fault-tolerant backbones of the trans-European gas pipeline network. Combining topological data with information on intercountry flows, we estimate the global load of the network and its tolerance to failures. To do this, we apply two complementary methods generalized from the betweenness centrality and the maximum flow. We find that the gas pipeline network has grown to satisfy a dual purpose. On one hand, the major pipelines are crossed by a large number of shortest paths thereby increasing the efficiency of the network; on the other hand, a nonoperational pipeline causes only a minimal impact on network capacity, implying that the network is error tolerant. These findings suggest that the trans-European gas pipeline network is robust, i.e., error tolerant to failures of high load links.

Robustness of trans-European gas networks.

We study the effectiveness of recovery strategies for a dynamic model of failure spreading in networks. These strategies control the distribution of resources based on information about the current network state and network topology. In order to assess their success, we have performed a series of simulation experiments. The considered parameters of these experiments are the network topology, the response time delay, and the overall disposition of resources. Our investigations are focused on the comparison of strategies for different scenarios and the determination of the most appropriate strategy. The importance of prompt response and the minimum sufficient quantity of resources are discussed as well.

Lubos Buzna

Papers

Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowd Dynamics: Experiments, Simulations, and Design Solutions

Transient Dynamics Increasing Network Vulnerability to Cascading Failures

Modelling the Dynamics of Disaster Spreading in Networks

Robustness of trans-European gas networks.

Efficient response to cascading disaster spreading.