A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: Development and validation☆

Systematic review and meta-analysis

Context Despite decades of accumulated observational evidence, the balance of risks and benefits for hormone use in healthy postmenopausal women remains uncertain Objective To assess the major health benefits and risks of the most commonly used combined hormone preparation in the United States Design Estrogen plus progestin component of the Women's Health Initiative, a randomized controlled primary prevention trial (planned duration, 85 years) in which 16608 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited by 40 US clinical centers in 1993-1998 Interventions Participants received conjugated equine estrogens, 0625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 25 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102) Main outcomes measures The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) (nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome A global index summarizing the balance of risks and benefits included the 2 primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death due to other causes Results On May 31, 2002, after a mean of 52 years of follow-up, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the trial of estrogen plus progestin vs placebo because the test statistic for invasive breast cancer exceeded the stopping boundary for this adverse effect and the global index statistic supported risks exceeding benefits This report includes data on the major clinical outcomes through April 30, 2002 Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (nominal 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were as follows: CHD, 129 (102-163) with 286 cases; breast cancer, 126 (100-159) with 290 cases; stroke, 141 (107-185) with 212 cases; PE, 213 (139-325) with 101 cases; colorectal cancer, 063 (043-092) with 112 cases; endometrial cancer, 083 (047-147) with 47 cases; hip fracture, 066 (045-098) with 106 cases; and death due to other causes, 092 (074-114) with 331 cases Corresponding HRs (nominal 95% CIs) for composite outcomes were 122 (109-136) for total cardiovascular disease (arterial and venous disease), 103 (090-117) for total cancer, 076 (069-085) for combined fractures, 098 (082-118) for total mortality, and 115 (103-128) for the global index Absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years attributable to estrogen plus progestin were 7 more CHD events, 8 more strokes, 8 more PEs, and 8 more invasive breast cancers, while absolute risk reductions per 10 000 person-years were 6 fewer colorectal cancers and 5 fewer hip fractures The absolute excess risk of events included in the global index was 19 per 10 000 person-years Conclusions Overall health risks exceeded benefits from use of combined estrogen plus progestin for an average 52-year follow-up among healthy postmenopausal US women All-cause mortality was not affected during the trial The risk-benefit profile found in this trial is not consistent with the requirements for a viable intervention for primary prevention of chronic diseases, and the results indicate that this regimen should not be initiated or continued for primary prevention of CHD

/pdf/risks-and-benefits-of-estrogen-plus-progestin-in-healthy-4glim99n2t.pdf

Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: Principal results from the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

Viral hepatitis in all its forms is a major public health problem throughout the world, affecting several hundreds of millions of people. Viral hepatitis is a cause of considerable morbidity and mortality both from acute infection and chronic sequelae which include, in the case of hepatitis B, C and D, chronic active hepatitis and cirrhosis. Hepatocellular carcinoma, which is one of the 10 commonest cancers worldwide, is closely associated with hepatitis B and, at least in some regions of the world, with hepatitis C virus. This timely monograph is a distillation of knowledge of hepatitis B, C and D, based on a review of 1000 studies by a small group of scientists. (It is interesting to note in passing that some 5000 papers on viral hepatitis are published annually in the world literature.) The epidemiological, clinical and experimental data on the association between infection with hepatitis B virus and primary liver cancer in humans are reviewed in a readable and succinct format. The available information on hepatitis C and progression to chronic infection is also evaluated and it is concluded (perhaps a little prematurely) that hepatitis C virus is carcinogenic. However, it is concluded that hepatitis D virus, an unusual virus with a number of similarities to certain plant viral satellites and viroids, cannot be classified as a human carcinogen. There are some minor criticisms: there are few illustrations and some complex tabulations (for example, Table 6) and no subject index. A cumulative cross index to IARC Monographs is of little value and occupies nearly 30 pages. This small volume is a useful addition to the overwhelming literature on viral hepatitis, and the presentation is similar to the excellent World Health Organisation Technical Reports series on the subject published in the past. It is strongly recommended as a readable up-to-date summary of a complex subject; and at a cost of 65 Sw.fr (approximately £34) is excellent value. A J ZUCKERMAN

https://jcp.bmj.com/content/jclinpath/48/7/691.1.full.pdf

IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans

Background Patients with congestive heart failure have a high mortality rate and are also hospitalized frequently. We studied the effect of an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, enalapril, on mortality and hospitalization in patients with chronic heart failure and ejection fractions less than or equal to 0.35. Methods Patients receiving conventional treatment for heart failure were randomly assigned to receive either placebo (n = 1284) or enalapril (n = 1285) at doses of 2.5 to 20 mg per day in a double-bind trial. Approximately 90 percent of the patients were in New York Heart Association functional classes II and III. The follow-up averaged 41.4 months. Results There were 510 deaths in the placebo group (39.7 percent), as compared with 452 in the enalapril group (35.2 percent) (reduction in risk, 16 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 5 to 26 percent; P = 0.0036). Although reductions in mortality were observed in several categories of cardiac deaths, the largest reduction occurred among the deaths attributed to progressive heart failure (251 in the placebo group vs. 209 in the enalapril group; reduction in risk, 22 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 6 to 35 percent). There was little apparent effect of treatment on deaths classified as due to arrhythmia without pump failure. Fewer patients died or were hospitalized for worsening heart failure (736 in the placebo group and 613 in the enalapril group; risk reduction, 26 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 18 to 34 percent; P less than 0.0001). Conclusions The addition of enalapril to conventional therapy significantly reduced mortality and hospitalizations for heart failure in patients with chronic congestive heart failure and reduced ejection fractions.

Effect of enalapril on survival in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fractions and congestive heart failure.

Background: It has been known for more than 20 years that estrogen replacement therapy substantially increases a woman’s risk of developing endometrial cancer. To reduce this increased risk, progestins have been added to estrogen replacement therapy for between 5 and 15 days (usually 7 or 10 days) per “month” in a sequential fashion (sequential estrogen‐progestin replacement therapy) or with each dose of estrogen replacement therapy (continuous combined replacement therapy). At the present time, however, little is known about the effects of varying the number of days that progestin is used in sequential estrogen‐progestin replacement therapy. Purpose: We sought to determine the effects of sequential estrogen‐progestin replacement therapy and continuous combined replacement therapy on a woman’s risk of developing endometrial cancer. Methods: A populationbased, case‐control study of 833 case subjects and 791 control subjects was conducted. Women were postmenopausal, white, and aged 50-74 years when first diagnosed with invasive endometrial cancer or were aged 50-74 years at the matching date for control subjects. All subjects were interviewed in person with the aid of a month-by-month calendar. Relative risks were estimated by odds ratios (ORs); ORs were adjusted simultaneously for the different forms of hormone replacement therapy and for the known endometrial cancer risk factors. Results: The adjusted OR was 2.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.91-2.47) per 5 years of estrogen replacement therapy use (based on 422 users among the case subjects and 262 users among the control subjects). For women who received sequential estrogen‐progestin replacement therapy with the progestin given for less than 10 days (effectively 7 days) per month, the adjusted OR was only slightly reduced to 1.87 (95% CI = 1.32-2.65) per 5 years of use (74 case subjects and 47 control subjects). However, when progestin was given for 10 or more days (effectively 10 days), there was essentially no increased risk (adjusted OR = 1.07 per 5 years of use; 95% CI = 0.82-1.41) (79 case subjects and 88 control subjects). Continuous combined replacement therapy was also associated with essentially no increased risk (adjusted OR = 1.07 per 5 years of use; 95% CI = 0.80-1.43) (94 case subjects and 81 control subjects). Conclusions: The progestin in sequential estrogen‐progestin replacement therapy needs to be given for at least 10 days to block effectively any increased risk of endometrial cancer. Continuous combined estrogen‐progestin therapy is similarly effective. Neither regimen reduces a woman’s underlying risk of endometrial cancer. The sharp distinction between the effects of less than 10 days (effectively 7 days) and 10 or more days (effectively 10 days) of progestin use in sequential estrogen‐ progestin replacement therapy suggests that the extent of endometrial sloughing may play a critical role in determining e ndometrial c ancer r isk. [ J N atl C ancer I nst 1997;89:1110-6]

M.C. Pike

Papers

Estrogen-progestin replacement therapy and endometrial cancer

A prospective study of obesity, lipids, apolipoproteins and ischaemic heart disease in women

Long survivals in acute leukæmia

Oral contraceptives and cancer

Contacts between young patients with Hodgkin's disease. A case-control study.