Showing papers by "Michelle L. Santee published in 2017"

State of the Climate in 2016

Abstract: In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 ± 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 ± 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44°C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0°C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8°C, representing a 3.5°C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute ∼7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01°C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st centuryto-date of +0.162°C decade-1 is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100°C decade-1. Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.

A comprehensive overview of the climatological composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone based on 10 years of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements

Abstract: Intense deep convection associated with the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) lofts surface pollutants to the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS), where strong winds and long chemical lifetimes allow intercontinental transport, affecting atmospheric composition around the globe. The Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched in 2004, makes simultaneous colocated measurements of trace gases and cloud ice water content (a proxy for deep convection) in the UTLS on a daily basis. Here we exploit the dense spatial and temporal coverage, long-term data record, extensive measurement suite, and insensitivity to aerosol and most clouds of Aura MLS to characterize the climatological (2005–2014) composition of the ASM anticyclone throughout its annual lifecycle. We use version 4 MLS data to quantify spatial and temporal variations in both tropospheric (H2O, CO, CH3Cl, CH3CN, CH3OH) and stratospheric (O3, HNO3, HCl) tracers on four potential temperature surfaces (350–410K). Inside the mature anticyclone, all species exhibit substantial changes, not only from their pre-monsoon distributions in the ASM region, but also from their summertime distributions in the rest of the hemisphere. Different tracers exhibit dissimilar seasonal evolution, and the exact location and timing of their extreme values vary. Although individual aspects of the anticyclone have been described previously, we present a uniquely comprehensive overview of the climatological seasonal evolution of the ASM and its impact on UTLS composition. This work provides valuable context for planned in situ measurements as well as a benchmark for model evaluation and future investigations of interannual variability and long-term changes in monsoon processes.

Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

Abstract: . The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March, allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, PSCs and cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical–dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed aboard HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations nudged toward ECMWF analysis generally agree well with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O3 loss of ∼ 2 ppmv or 117 DU in terms of column ozone in mid-March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 4–8 ppbv HNO3 and dehydrated by about 0.6–1 ppmv H2O from the middle to the end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Abstract: The representation of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014 Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2 Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution – for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and multiple tropopause distributions Quantitative differences may, however, have important consequences for transport and variability studies Our results highlight the importance of considering reanalyses differences in UTLS studies, especially in relation to resolution and model grids; this is particularly critical when using high-resolution reanalyses as an observational reference for evaluating global chemistry–climate models

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

Abstract: We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S–30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (−0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about −0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model.

Variability of Stratospheric Reactive Nitrogen and Ozone Related to the QBO

Abstract: The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates interannual variability of dynamical variables and trace constituents in the tropical stratosphere and provides a natural experiment to test circulation-chemistry interactions. This work quantifies the relationships among ozone (O3), reactive nitrogen (NOy), and source gas N2O, and their links to the QBO, based on satellite constituent measurements and meteorological data spanning 2005–2014 (over four QBO cycles). Data include O3, HNO3, and N2O from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and an NOx proxy derived from Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System NO2 measurements combined with a photochemical box model (= NOx*). Results are compared to simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4 incorporating a QBO circulation nudged to assimilated winds. Cross correlations and composites with respect to the QBO phase show coherent 180° out-of-phase relationships between NOy and N2O throughout the stratosphere, with the NOx/HNO3 ratio increasing with altitude. The anomalies in NOy species propagate coherently downward with the QBO. Ozone is anticorrelated with reactive nitrogen in the middle stratosphere above ~28 km due to NOx control of ozone catalytic loss cycles. Quantitative comparisons of nitrogen partitioning and O3 sensitivity to NOx show good overall agreement between satellite observations and model results (suggesting closure of the NOy budget), although the model results show larger (up to ~20%) N2O, NOx, and O3 variations near ~35 km compared to observations. These analyses serve to assess the consistency of diverse satellite-based data sets and also to evaluate nitrogen partitioning and NOx-dependent ozone chemistry in the global model.

Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the Arctic winter 2015/2016

Abstract: The Arctic winter 2015/2016 was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 nudged toward European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, polar stratospheric clouds as well as cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the Arctic winter 2015/2016 as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the Arctic winter 2015/2016 are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed on board of HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations are in fairly good agreement with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O 3 loss of ~ 2 ppmv or 100 DU in terms of column in mid March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 8 ppbv HNO 3 and dehydrated by about 1 ppmv H 2 O in mid to end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in the at least past 10 years.

Characterizing sampling and quality screening biases in infrared and microwave limb sounding

Abstract: . This study investigates orbital sampling biases and evaluates the additional impact caused by data quality screening for the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MIPAS acts as a proxy for typical infrared limb emission sounders, while MLS acts as a proxy for microwave limb sounders. These biases were calculated for temperature and several trace gases by interpolating model fields to real sampling patterns and, additionally, screening those locations as directed by their corresponding quality criteria. Both instruments have dense uniform sampling patterns typical of limb emission sounders, producing almost identical sampling biases. However, there is a substantial difference between the number of locations discarded. MIPAS, as a mid-infrared instrument, is very sensitive to clouds, and measurements affected by them are thus rejected from the analysis. For example, in the tropics, the MIPAS yield is strongly affected by clouds, while MLS is mostly unaffected. The results show that upper-tropospheric sampling biases in zonally averaged data, for both instruments, can be up to 10 to 30 %, depending on the species, and up to 3 K for temperature. For MIPAS, the sampling reduction due to quality screening worsens the biases, leading to values as large as 30 to 100 % for the trace gases and expanding the 3 K bias region for temperature. This type of sampling bias is largely induced by the geophysical origins of the screening (e.g. clouds). Further, analysis of long-term time series reveals that these additional quality screening biases may affect the ability to accurately detect upper-tropospheric long-term changes using such data. In contrast, MLS data quality screening removes sufficiently few points that no additional bias is introduced, although its penetration is limited to the upper troposphere, while MIPAS may cover well into the mid-troposphere in cloud-free scenarios. We emphasize that the results of this study refer only to the representativeness of the respective data, not to their intrinsic quality.

Accuracy and precision of lower stratospheric polar reanalysis temperatures evaluated from A-train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

Abstract: We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100–10 hPa during 2008–2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis data sets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5.9.1 near real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STS) and ice clouds. Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO 3 and H 2 O. The estimated accuracy and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, is 0.6–1.5 K and 0.3–0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference they are 0.4 K and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (accuracy 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer peninsula, and compare how the wave amplitudes are reproduced by each reanalysis data set. We find that the spatial and temporal distribution of temperatures below the ice frost point, and hence the potential to form ice PSCs in model studies driven by the reanalyses, varies significantly because of the underlying differences in the representation of mountain wave activity. We have therefore used temperature variances, calculated from the COSMIC GPS RO temperature data (80–20 hPa), and imposed a variance threshold to selectively remove profiles with suspected enhanced wave activity. We examine the resulting improvement to the fidelity of the reanalysis temperatures. High accuracy COSMIC temperatures are used as a common reference to intercompare the reanalysis temperatures and, although the COSMIC data are routinely assimilated by each reanalysis scheme except for MERRA, we find that there are significant departures from uniformity in the structure of the meridional and altitude temperature differences. Over the 68–21 hPa pressure range, the biases of the reanalyses with respect to COSMIC temperatures for both polar regions fall within the narrow range of −0.6 K to +0.5 K. The corresponding standard deviations of the differences are ~ 0.8 K at 100 hPa and increase exponentially with altitude, as expected because of the gradually worsening GPS RO measurement precision. GEOS-5.9.1, MERRA, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 have predominantly cold biases, whereas ERA-I has a predominantly warm bias. NCEP-CFSR has a warm bias in the Arctic, but becomes substantially colder in the Antarctic. For the comparisons of the reanalysis temperatures with the thermodynamically calculated temperature references, we use the concept of an instrument field of view (FOV) fill-fraction. The distribution of CALIOP PSC types within the MLS geometric FOV are used to mitigate the effects of disparate types of PSCs occurring in the much larger MLS sample volume. This removes the speckle effect that arises either because of uncertainty in the detection classification from random noise in the CALIOP signals or from the microphysical effects of small-scale temperature fluctuations on the formation of PSC particles. We select viewing scenes with the requirement that 75 % or more of the MLS geometric FOV is filled with CALIOP PSC detections of the same PSC type classification. Scenes satisfying this requirement for CALIOP STS detections we denote as LIQ, and for CALIOP ice detections we denote as ICE. Over the 68–21 hPa pressure range, the reanalysis temperature biases are in the range −1.6 K to −0.3 K with standard deviations ~ 0.6 K for the LIQ reference, and in the range −0.9 K to +0.1 K with standard deviations ~ 0.7 K for the ICE reference. Comparisons of MLS temperatures with the LIQ and ICE reference temperatures reveal vertical oscillations in the MLS temperatures, and a significant low bias in MLS temperatures of up to 3 K.

The Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 2016

Abstract: A 'News & Views' paper. The 2016 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium (QOS-2016) was held on 4–9 September 2016 in Edinburgh, UK. The Symposium was organized by the International Ozone Commission (IO3C), the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and the University of Edinburgh, and was co-sponsored by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, and the World Meteorological Organization. More than 300 participants from 39 countries attended. Key topics included: stratospheric and tropospheric ozone observations and modelling; interactions between ozone, atmospheric chemistry and climate; ozone measurement techniques; and effects on human health, ecosystems, and agriculture. Engagement with stakeholders and policymakers was also a key feature.