BACKGROUND: In December 2019, coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan and rapidly spread throughout China. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data of all confirmed cases with COVID-19 on admission at Tongji Hospital from 10 January to 12 February 2020 were collected and analyzed. The data on laboratory examinations, including peripheral lymphocyte subsets, were analyzed and compared between patients with severe and nonsevere infection. RESULTS: Of the 452 patients with COVID-19 recruited, 286 were diagnosed as having severe infection. The median age was 58 years and 235 were male. The most common symptoms were fever, shortness of breath, expectoration, fatigue, dry cough, and myalgia. Severe cases tend to have lower lymphocyte counts, higher leukocyte counts and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as well as lower percentages of monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils. Most severe cases demonstrated elevated levels of infection-related biomarkers and inflammatory cytokines. The number of T cells significantly decreased, and were more impaired in severe cases. Both helper T (Th) cells and suppressor T cells in patients with COVID-19 were below normal levels, with lower levels of Th cells in the severe group. The percentage of naive Th cells increased and memory Th cells decreased in severe cases. Patients with COVID-19 also have lower levels of regulatory T cells, which are more obviously decreased in severe cases. CONCLUSIONS: The novel coronavirus might mainly act on lymphocytes, especially T lymphocytes. Surveillance of NLR and lymphocyte subsets is helpful in the early screening of critical illness, diagnosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

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Dysregulation of Immune Response in Patients With Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China.

Background In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. Methods We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. Findings Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged Interpretation These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

https://www.commed.vcu.edu/Chronic_Disease/2012/cochranrvwrschbias.pdf

The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials

L'incidence annuelle du syndrome de Guillain-Barre est de 1,5/100000 habitants La mortalite actuelle est estimee a environ 5 % d'apres des essais therapeutiques recents, bien conduits Dix pour cent des malades gardent des sequelles motrices tres invalidantes un an apres le debut des premiers signes neurologiques La prise en charge de ces malades necessite des equipes entrainees, multidisciplinaires, pouvant pratiquer l'ensemble des therapeutiques specifiques La corticotherapie per os'ou par voie intraveineuse est inefficace Les echanges plasmatiques sont le premier traitement dont l'efficacite a ete demontree par rapport a un groupe controle Les indications sont maintenant mieux connues Les formes benignes (marche possible) beneficient de 2 echanges plasmatiques; 2 echanges supplementaires sont realises en cas d'aggravation Dans les formes intermediaires (marche impossible) et les formes severes (recours a la ventilation mecanique), 4 echanges plasmatiques sont conseilles Il n'est pas utile d'augmenter leur nombre dans les formes severes ou en cas d'absence d'amelioration De fortes doses d'immunoglobulines donnees par voie intraveineuse (lq IV) [0,4 g/kg/j pendant 5 jours] sont aussi efficaces que les echanges plasmatiques dans les formes intermediaires et severes Dans ces formes, le choix entre Ig IV et echanges plasmatiques depend des contre-indications respectives de ces traitements et de leur faisabilite Les travaux en cours ont comme objectif de mieux preciser les indications respectives des echanges plasmatiques et des lq IV dans des formes de gravite differente, leur morbidite comparee, la dose optimale des lq IV

[Guillain-Barré syndrome].

Hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in Scotland after one dose of vaccine.

Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions. We focus on the first critical months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that, in this high vaccine availability scenario, more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: 56%-99%) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider a scenario where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries; even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: 7%-73%) could have been averted. In the absence of equitable allocation, the model suggests that considerable additional non-pharmaceutical interventions would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines (min-max range: 15%-75%). Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequities and call for amplified global efforts to provide better access to vaccine programs in low and lower middle income countries

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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study

Ebola vaccination - Authors' reply.

Background:Novel strategies are needed to make vaccine efficacy trials more robust given uncertain epidemiology of infectious disease outbreaks, such as arboviruses like Zika. Spatially resolved ma...

Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic

Background/Aims Novel strategies are needed to make vaccine efficacy trials more robust given the uncertain epidemiology of outbreaks. Spatially resolved mathematical and statistical models can help investigators identify sites at highest risk of future transmission and prioritize these for inclusion in trials. Models can also characterize the uncertainty in whether transmission will occur at a site, and how nearby or connected sites may have correlated outcomes. A structure is needed for how trials can use models to address key design questions, including how to prioritize sites, the optimal number of sites, and how to allocate participants across sites. Methods We illustrate the added value of models using the motivating example of Zika vaccine trial planning during the 2015-2017 Zika epidemic. We used a stochastic, spatially resolved, agent-based transmission model (GLEAM) to generate 1,142 epidemics and site-level incidence at 100 high-risk sites in the Americas. We considered several strategies for prioritizing sites (average site-level incidence of infection across epidemics, median incidence, probability of exceeding 1% incidence), selecting the number of sites, and allocating sample size across sites (equal enrollment, proportional to average incidence, proportional to rank). To evaluate each design, we stochastically simulated trials in each hypothetical epidemic by drawing observed cases from site-level incidence data. Results When constraining the overall trial sample size, the optimal number of sites represents a balance between prioritizing highest-risk sites and having enough sites to reduce the chance of observing too few endpoints. The optimal number of sites remained roughly constant despite varying the targeted number of events, although it is necessary to increase the total sample size to achieve the desired power. Though different ranking strategies returned different site orders, they performed similarly with respect to trial power. Instead of enrolling participants equally from each site, investigators can allocate participants proportional to projected incidence, though this did not provide an advantage in our example because the top sites had a roughly similar risk profile. Sites from the same geographic region may have similar outcomes, so optimal combinations of sites may be those that are more geographically dispersed, even when these are not the highest ranked sites. Conclusions Mathematical and statistical models may assist in the design of successful vaccination trials by capturing uncertainty and correlation in future transmission. Although many factors affect site selection, such as logistical feasibility, models can help investigators optimize site selection and the number and size of participating sites.

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Natalie E. Dean

Papers

Hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in Scotland after one dose of vaccine.

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study

Ebola vaccination - Authors' reply.

Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic

Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to guide the design of individually randomized vaccine trials