Showing papers by "Economic and Social Research Institute published in 2006"
01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK on tourism demand and found that tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country.
Abstract: We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.
181 citations
TL;DR: The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change (Stern et al., 2006) is a report to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change (Stern et al., 2006) is a report to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom. A team of 23 people, led by Sir Nicholas Stern and supported by many consultants, worked for a little over a year to produce a report of some 700 pages on the economics of climate change. The report says many things, some better supported than others. I agree with the Stern Review on a number of things. Firstly, climate change is real, and climate change is a problem. Secondly, climate policy should be guided (but not dictated) by an assessment of the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission abatement. Thirdly, climate policy is best implemented with market-based instruments such as taxes and tradable permits.
162 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose to use objective living conditions and subjective feelings of deprivation to show that the very high poverty rates in poorer Member States that an EUwide poverty measure would produce are empirically meaningful, in that they reflect the low living standards and a strong sense of deprivation experienced by large proportions of the population in those states.
Abstract: Income poverty in the European Union (EU) is normally measured with reference to income thresholds defined at the level of each Member State, independently of any consideration of inequalities in income between Member States. This approach has come under strain as a consequence of the recent enlargement of the EU: income differences between Member States are now so wide that what is defined as the poverty threshold in the richer Member States would count as an above-average income in the poorer Member States. This article proposes that, in order to cope with empirical and policy issues arising in this new situation, measures of poverty based on EU-wide thresholds need to be utilized alongside existing measures. Indicators of objective living conditions and subjective feelings of deprivation are used to show that the very high poverty rates in poorer Member States that an EU-wide poverty measure would produce are empirically meaningful, in that they reflect the low living standards and a strong sense of deprivation experienced by large proportions of the population in those states. They are also relevant for policy, but in a context where EU anti-poverty policy is linked as much with the EU convergence project and the single EU labour market as of social policy in the usual sense.
119 citations
TL;DR: The role of multinational enterprises in the global economy is linked to questions of how the foreign direct investment (FDI) they control impacts on overall economic activity in the recipient countries as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The increasingly important role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the global economy is linked to questions of how the foreign direct investment (FDI) they control impacts on overall economic activity in the recipient countries. Of specific interest is the policy context in which such FDI flows into the developing country and how a government can influence the impact of those flows. This paper reviews some of the literature in two key contextual areas, namely, when the host country policy regime promotes FDI selectively, and secondly, where it promotes the creation of industrial clusters. It explores the insights of this literature for the development of the strong MNE sector in the Irish economy and draws lessons from the Irish experience for emerging economies.
106 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of European Union Cohesion policy in less-developed countries and regions is evaluated using macro-economic models, and the results only provide imprecise, ballpark impact estimates and the challenge remains of reconciling bottom-up microanalysis with top-down macroanalysis.
Abstract: Bradley J. (2006) Evaluating the impact of European Union Cohesion policy in less-developed countries and regions, Regional Studies 40, 189–199. The expansion of Structural Funds since the late 1980s presented European Commission and domestic policy-makers with design and impact evaluation challenges. Such policies moved beyond demand-side stimulation, and were aimed at the promotion of real convergence, mainly through productivity-enhancing, supply-side mechanisms. Research suggests that the ‘macro-models’ are potentially capable of extracting the pure Structural Funds policy impacts from the background of all the other domestic and external shocks that affect the economy at the same time. However, such results only provide imprecise, ballpark impact estimates, and the challenge remains of reconciling bottom-up microanalysis with top-down macroanalysis. Macro-evaluation Macro-economic models HERMIN models Ex-ante impacts Bradley J. (2006) Evaluer l'impact de la politique de cohesion de l'UE dans les pays...
86 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.
Abstract: While climate change impacts on human life have well defined and different origins, the interactions among the diverse impacts are not yet fully understood. Their final effects, however, especially those involving social-economic responses, are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model the two impacts categories are first analysed separately and then jointly. Considered separately, in 2050, the forecasted 25 cm. of sea level rise imply a GDP loss ranging from (-) 0.1% in South East Asia to almost no loss in Canada, while redistribution of tourism flows - which in terms of arrivals favours Western Europe, Japan, Korea and Canada and penalises all the other world regions - triggers GDP losses ranging from (-) 0.5% in Small Island States to (-) 0.0004% in Canada. GDP gainers are Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe, Middle East and South Asia.
81 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the issues of market discipline by depositors were investigated by examining deposit shifts among Japan's small banking institutions in the 1990s and finding that market discipline has effectively worked since the early 1990s.
Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the issues of depositor discipline by examining deposit shifts among Japan's small banking institutions in the 1990s. We are concerned with two questions: (i) whether depositor discipline has effectively worked since the early 1990s, and (ii) whether changes in the regulatory frameworks, including the deposit insurance scheme, affect depositor discipline. Our findings support the effective role of market discipline by depositors. Riskier institutions attract smaller amounts of deposits and are required to pay higher interest rates. Depositor sensitivity to bank risks has changed over time, in compliance with the historical developments of the deposit insurance system.JEL Classification Numbers: G21, G32.
71 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored both the school and student factors shaping the take-up of Biology, Physics, and Chemistry at upper secondary level, and found that school structures at both lower and upper secondary levels are found to play a role in shaping the choices made by students regarding science.
Abstract: Studies of subject take-up within secondary education have tended to focus on student characteristics and have rarely attempted to take account of the broad variety of ways, formal and informal, in which schools can constrain or facilitate particular subject choices. In contrast, this article explores both the school and student factors shaping the take-up of Biology, Physics, and Chemistry at upper secondary level. The analyses draw on detailed information on almost 4,000 students in 100 secondary schools in the Republic of Ireland. Schools are found to differ in the proportion of students taking science subjects, even controlling for the profile of students. School structures at both lower and upper secondary levels are found to play a role in shaping the choices made by students regarding science.
57 citations
TL;DR: This article examined whether or not increased admission rates between the mid-1990s and 2000s led to a reduction in social class inequality in access to higher education, and found that the period has been characterised by both continuity and change.
Abstract: Ireland has experienced substantial increases in participation in higher education in recent years. This paper examines whether or not increased admission rates between the mid-1990s and 2000s led to a reduction in social class inequality in access to higher education. We draw on two data sets, one, a dedicated survey of new entrants to higher education in 2004, the other, a combination of the results of a series of school leavers' surveys conducted in the mid-1990s and early 2000s. We show that the period has been characterised by both continuity and change. Continuity is reflected in persistent social inequalities in access to higher education: the children of higher professionals and farmers, in particular, have maintained their privileged access to higher education. Change is reflected in some closing in relative social inequalities, partly arising as more advantaged groups reach a saturation point in progression to higher education, and partly due to the children of manual workers increasing their participation rates.
54 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components to find a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics, and observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes.
Abstract: In this paper we seek to establish if earlier findings relating to the relationship between income poverty persistence and deprivation persistence could be due to a failure to take measurement error into account. To address this question, we apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components. Our analysis shows a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics. In both cases we substantially over-estimate the probability of exiting from poverty or deprivation. We observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes. In both cases levels of poverty and deprivation persistence are higher for the latent case. However, there is no evidence that earlier results relating to the differences in the determinants of poverty and deprivation persistence are a consequence of differential patterns of reliability. Taking measurement error into account seems more likely to accentuate rather than diminish the contrasts highlighted by earlier research. Since longitudinal differences relating to poverty and deprivation cannot be accounted for by measurement error, it seems that we must accept that we are confronted with issues relating to validity rather than reliability. Even where we measure these dimensions over reasonable periods of time and allow for measurement error, they continue to tap relatively distinct phenomenon. Thus, if measures of persistent poverty are to constitute an important component of EU social indicators, a strong case can be made for including parallel measures of deprivation persistence and continuing to explore the relationship between them.
47 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented, which consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients.
Abstract: A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.
TL;DR: Although the availability of social support and psychological attachment to work have been shown to influence mental well-being in unemployment, the main determinant suggested in research is econ... as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Although the availability of social support and psychological
attachment to work have been shown to influence�t mental well-being in
unemployment, the main determinant suggested in research is econ ...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study the impacts of water taxes on international trade and find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns.
Abstract: Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless affected by other countries' taxes. Taxes on agricultural water use drive most of the economic and welfare impacts. Reductions in water use (welfare losses) are less (more) than linear in the price of water. The results are sensitive to the assumed ability to substitute other production factors for water. A water tax on production would have different effects on water use, production and trade patterns, and the size and distribution of welfare losses than would a water tax on final consumption.
TL;DR: The Irish case is used to explore the dynamics of the interaction between public and private health care and their impact on the demand for health insurance and on equity and brings out how a structure designed to take advantage of possible benefits for the public system of close interaction with private care can be both destabilizing for thepublic system and inequitable in terms of access and utilization.
Abstract: In Ireland, the public health system has a symbiotic relationship with private health insurance not seen in other European countries. Everyone has entitlement to public hospital care from the state, but half the population now pay for private health insurance. The insured avail of “private” health care, much of it delivered in public hospitals, and the resulting two-tier system is problematic from both an efficiency and an equity perspective. This paper uses the Irish case to explore the dynamics of the interaction between public and private health care and their impact on the demand for health insurance and on equity. It brings out how a structure designed to take advantage of possible benefits for the public system of close interaction with private care can be both destabilizing for the public system and inequitable in terms of access and utilization.
TL;DR: The authors used the first wave of the Irish component of the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey to evaluate conflicting interpretations of levels and patterns of material deprivation in Ireland after the "Celtic Tiger".
Abstract: In this paper we use the first full wave of the Irish component of the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey to evaluate conflicting interpretations of levels and patterns of material deprivation in Ireland after the ‘Celtic Tiger’. Radical critics of Irish economic policies have seen the Irish case as a particularly good illustration of the tendency for globalization to be accompanied by widespread economic vulnerability and marginalization. Here, employing a multidimensional perspective we identify one fifth of the population as being economically vulnerable and one in fourteen as vulnerable to maximal deprivation; in that they exhibit high risks of deprivation across a range of life-style deprivation dimensions. Current levels and depth of material deprivation are a good deal more modest than suggested by radical critics of the Irish experience of economic globalization. .
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on labor market issues of migration towards the old EU15 from three regions: the NEW10, the two accession countries entering in 2007 (Romani...
Abstract: Migration covers a wide range of important challenges as high unemployment in major receiving countries of the EU15, the concern with regard to social and cultural integration of migrants and the reduced social cohesion of receiving countries due to the lack of civic and political participation even of second and third generation migrants. However, migration may open up important opportunities, as to reduce the predicted long‐term gap in labor supply in Europe due to demographic ageing and to contribute positively to an improved financial sustainability of the social security systems (pensions and health care) of the receiving countries. These concerns are raised in relation to mobility inside an enlarged EU of 25 member states, but in particular in relation to migration from “third” countries outside the Union. Within this context the focus of this study is on labor market issues of migration towards the old EU15 from three regions: the NEW10, the two accession countries entering in 2007 (Romani...
01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of trade integration, specialization and exchange rate volatility on correlations of regional growth cycles with the Euro area was investigated using a panel data of 208 EU-15 regions over the period 1989-2002.
Abstract: This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of the co-movement of economic activity across regions in the European Union. Using a panel data of 208 EU-15 regions over the period 1989-2002 we estimate a system of four simultaneous equations to analyse the impact of regional trade integration, specialization and exchange rate volatility on correlations of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. We find that deeper trade integration with the Euro area had a strong direct positive effect on the synchronisation of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. Industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were sources of cyclical divergence. Industrial specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on growth cycles synchronisation via its positive effect on trade integration, while exchange rate volatility had an indirect additional negative effect on growth cycle correlations by reducing trade integration. Industrial specialisation had an indirect negative effect on growth cycle correlations by increasing the exchange rate volatility. The direct impact of trade integration on growth cycle correlations was stronger in the pre-EMU sub-period, while in the EMU subperiod, the negative direct effects of industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were stronger than in the pre-EMU sub-period. A distinct result is the positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth cycle correlations in the pre-EMU sub-period, suggesting that over this period, country-specific exchange rate fluctuations acted as shock absorbers. Our analysis is relevant in the context of the discussion about the macroeconomic adjustment to region-specific shocks in the European Monetary Union. (authors' abstract)
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001 and document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated.
Abstract: In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio- economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine the consequences for social mobility of the recent unprecedented period of economic growth experienced in Ireland and the implications of such developments for current theories of social fluidity.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002, and use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector.
Abstract: We compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002. We use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector. Overall emission intensity rose between 1850 and 1917, and fell between 1917 and 2002. The leading cause for the rise in emission intensity was the switch from wood to coal, but population growth, economic growth, and electrification contributed as well. After 1917, population growth, economic growth and electrification pushed emissions up further, and there was no net shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources. From 1850 to 2002, emissions were reduced by technological and behavioural change (particularly in transport, manufacturing and households), structural change in the economy, and a shift from coal to oil and gas. These trends are stronger than electrification, explaining the fall in emissions relative to GDP.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used data from a specifically designed survey of firms to estimate the employment effects of the Irish minimum wage of IR£4.40 (€5.58) an hour.
Abstract: . In April 2000 the Irish government introduced a national minimum wage of IR£4.40 (€5.58) an hour. We use data from a specifically designed survey of firms to estimate the employment effects of this change. Employment growth among firms with low-wage workers prior to the legislation was no different from that of firms not affected by the legislation. A more refined measure of the minimum wage, however, suggests that the legislation may have had a negative effect on employment for the small number of firms most severely affected by the legislation. However, the size of these effects is relatively modest.
TL;DR: In this paper, a mixed-methods educational research project involving a substantive qualitative data analysis is presented. But, limited information is available on the nature and practical use of these programs in the Irish context.
Abstract: Over the last two decades there has been an increase in the use of qualitative research, particularly in the human sciences. Such a move has resulted in an increasing number of researchers across disciplines using various types of qualitative software specially designed for managing text and facilitating analysis of qualitative data. However, we feel that limited information is available on the nature and practical use of these programmes in the Irish context. This has led to various misconceptions regarding the use of such programmes. In addition, international literature has highlighted the importance of making the qualitative research process more transparent in terms of describing in detail the analytical procedures applied in qualitative research. This article seeks to open up the debate surrounding qualitative data analysis and provoke discussion about the use of qualitative software packages in educational research. Based on a mixed-methods educational research project involving a substantive quali...
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TL;DR: A comparison of GP visiting in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is compared to find out which country has a higher number of GPs.
Abstract: Title A comparison of GP visiting in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland Authors(s) McGregor, Patrick; Nolan, Anne; Nolan, Brian; O'Neill, Ciaran Publication date 2006-04 Series ESRI Research Programme on Health Services, Health Inequalities and Health and Social Gain; No. 22 Publisher ESRI, ISSC & University of Ulster Link to online version http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20080904165330/OPEA059.pdf Item record/more information http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1062 Publisher's statement Working Papers are not for publication and should not be quoted without the prior permission of the author(s)
TL;DR: The authors used micro-level data from the Family Savings Survey and the Family Income and Expenditure Survey to estimate the coefficient of prudence for Japanese households in the second half of the 1990s.
Abstract: This paper explores empirically whether Japanese consumers became more prudent in the second half of the 1990s, a decade in which Japan registered historically low economic growth. Employing the methodology developed by Dynan (1993), this study uses micro-level data from the Family Savings Survey and the Family Income and Expenditure Survey to estimate the coefficient of prudence for Japanese households in the second half of the 1990s. The estimates reveal that the coefficient of prudence is positive and statistically significant in the 1998–1999 period. The obtained value for the coefficient of prudence is four, which is much higher than that estimated for US households (not significantly different from zero) or UK households (around 2). The estimated coefficient for young households is higher still, which is consistent with simulation studies conducted by Gourinchas & Parker (2002) showing that precaution is the most important saving motive for younger households.
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TL;DR: This article found evidence of a wage gap for immigrants with third level educations, relative to comparable natives, and found that immigrants are half as likely to have been in receipt of social welfare payments in the previous twelve months relative to natives.
Abstract: Ireland’s exceptional economic growth in recent years has led to an influx of immigrants. Given the favourable economic climate into which these immigrants are arriving, it is interesting to ask how their earnings and welfare dependence compare with the native population. To the extent that strong economic growth produces good labour market opportunities for immigrants, earnings disadvantages may be lessened and any tendency towards welfare dependence may be reduced. Data from a nationally representative sample drawn in 2004 are used to assess the earnings of immigrants in Ireland relative to the native population and also the rate of welfare receipt across the two groups. Immigrants are found to earn 18 percent less than natives, controlling for education and years of work experience. However, this single figure hides differences across immigrants from English-speaking and non-English speaking countries. We also find evidence of a wage gap for immigrants with third level educations, relative to comparable natives. On average, immigrants are half as likely to have been in receipt of social welfare payments in the previous twelve months relative to natives. A difference in welfare participation remains when we control for the higher education attainment of immigrants.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel, and the effect of the tax on travel behavior is small: a global $1000/tC would change travel behavior to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%.
Abstract: A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: A global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (that is, islands near continents, such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (e.g., Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers, while other destinations may see international arrivals rise. If the tax is only applied to the European Union, EU tourists would stay closer to home so that EU tourism would grow at the expense of other destinations. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the qualitative insights are robust. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would have little effect on international tourism, and little effect on emissions.
TL;DR: The authors analyzed patterns of relative manufacturing concentration in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay over the period 1985-1998 and found that localisation of demand and comparative advantages were the main driving forces of these patterns.
Abstract: Over the past two decades, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have implemented unilateral trade liberalization programs and formed MERCOSUR. The effects of these reforms on production structures in these countries have not received a great deal of attention. This paper analyses patterns of relative manufacturing concentration in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay over the period 1985–1998. Our results indicate that localisation of demand and comparative advantages are the main driving forces of these patterns. The establishment of MERCOSUR has fostered the relative importance of factor endowments and production linkages in shaping the spatial distribution of manufacturing in the above three countries.
TL;DR: This paper used an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of population growth, economic growth, and climate change on tourism, finding that international tourism is more (less) important than domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places.
Abstract: We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of population growth, economic growth, and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Furthermore, the model is used to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern is robust, however. Climate change is more important to tourism than is sea level rise, because the latter heavily affects only a few places where beach nourishment is a viable option.
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TL;DR: A new measure of health is derived – the ‘Ill Health Index’ using three different health indicators and information on differential costs of treatment across groups is obtained to find that both those withmedical insurance and those with medical cards are more likely to use hospital services.
Abstract: Hospital services in Ireland have developed into a complex mixture of public and private provision with private patients being treated in public as well as private hospitals. This interweaving of public and private medicine is driven to a large extent by the large proportion of the population covered by health insurance which has grown from 4% in 1960 to over 50% by 2004. This situation has led to concerns that hospital care is not available to all on the basis of need alone but is substantially influenced by personal circumstances. Previous research on Irish hospitals found that utilisation was neutral across the income distribution controlling for health status – i.e., there was essentially equal treatment for equal need irrespective of income. It could be argued however that these analyses did not properly control for health status as those in lower income groups can be shown to have a lower health status within the same response categories within social surveys. Similarly, previous research has also assumed that treatment costs were identical across groups. In this paper we derive a new measure of health – the ‘Ill Health Index’ using three different health indicators and obtain information on differential costs of treatment across groups. We find that both those with medical insurance and those with medical cards are more likely to use hospital services. The costs of these services are also significantly higher for these groups. Comparison of measures of equity for inpatient utilisation and inpatient costs shows that costs are more pro-poor, but a decomposition of the distribution of hospital costs standardising for health needs shows that higher income groups actually use hospital services more and cost more for the same level of health than lower income groups.
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TL;DR: In this article, the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa were studied, and the authors used scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality.
Abstract: We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the time and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduced infectious diseases, even if that is exacerbated by climate change.