Showing papers by "Economic and Social Research Institute published in 2009"
TL;DR: In this article, the Stern Review reported a social cost of carbon of over $300/tC, calling for ambitious climate policy, and they conducted a systematic sensitivity analysis of this result on two crucial parameters: the rate of pure time preference and risk aversion.
Abstract: The Stern Review reported a social cost of carbon of over $300/tC, calling for ambitious climate policy. We here conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis of this result on two crucial parameters: the rate of pure time preference, and the rate of risk aversion. We show that the social cost of carbon lies anywhere in between 0 and $120 000/tC. However, if we restrict these two parameters to matching observed behaviour, an expected social cost of carbon of $60/tC results. If we correct this estimate for income differences across the world, the social cost of carbon rises to over $200/tC.
574 citations
TL;DR: In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation, and by the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity are seen in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean.
Abstract: Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modeling, and global distributions of working populations to estimate the impact of 2 climate scenarios on future labor productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labor productivity, under the simple assumption of no specific adaptation. By the 2080s, the greatest absolute losses of population-based labor work capacity (in the range 11% to 27%) are seen under the A2 scenario in Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean. Increased occupational heat exposure due to climate change may significantly impact on labor productivity and costs unless preventive measures are implemented. Workers may need to work longer hours, or more workers may be required, to achieve the same output and there will be economic costs of lost production and/or occupational health interventions against heat exposures.
309 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigated the relationship between four flexible working arrangements; flexitime, part-time hours, working from home and job sharing, and two key employee outcomes; work pressure and work-life conflict, using data from the first national survey of employees in Ireland in 2003.
Abstract: Recent rapid economic growth in Ireland has been accompanied by a strong surge in the number of women in employment, and this has led to a significant increase in the proportion of dual-earner families. These changes have brought the issue of reconciliation between work and care commitments to the fore. Flexible working arrangements in firms have been identified as one important means of balancing work and other commitments. In this article we investigate the relationship between four flexible working arrangements; flexitime, part-time hours, working from home and job sharing, and two key employee outcomes; work pressure and work–life conflict, using data from the first national survey of employees in Ireland in 2003. Our results show that while part-time work and flexitime tend to reduce work pressure and work–life conflict, working from home is associated with greater levels of both work pressure and work–life conflict. We conclude that it is important to distinguish between flexible working arrangements to discover their potential for reducing work pressure and work–life conflict.
283 citations
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TL;DR: The authorsLEX The authors examines the labour market status of graduates five years after graduation and distinguishes between first and current job, vertical and horizontal mismatch, over/underqualification and over/underskilling as well as including a range of questions on the nature of work organisation and individual competences.
Abstract: There is much disagreement in the literature over the extent to which graduates are mismatched in the labour market and the reasons for this. In this paper we utilise the Flexible Professional in the Knowledge Society (REFLEX) data set to cast light on these issues, based on data for UK graduates. REFLEX examines the labour market status of graduates five years after graduation and distinguishes between first and current job, vertical and horizontal mismatch, over/underqualification and over/underskilling as well as including a range of questions on the nature of work organisation and individual competences. We find substantial pay penalties for over-education for both sexes and for overskilling in the case of men only. When both education and skill mismatch variables are included together in the model only overskilling reduces job satisfaction consistently for both sexes. Using job attributes data it appears that the lower wages of the overqualified may in part simply represent a compensating wage differential for positive job attributes, while for men at least there are real costs to being overskilled.
212 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of carbon tax and revenue recycling across the income distribution in the Republic of Ireland were studied and it was shown that a carbon tax of €20/tCO2 would cost the poorest households less than €3/week and the richest households more than €4/week.
200 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, three computable general equilibrium models are used to estimate the economic implications of a stylized version of EU climate policy, and the models agree that the distortions introduced by total EU package imply a substantial welfare loss over and above the costs needed to meet the climate target.
150 citations
TL;DR: The authors used longitudinal data from Australia to examine the extent to which overskilling is a transitory phenomenon and found that while over-skilled workers are much more likely to want to quit their current job, they are also relatively unconfident of finding an improved job match.
Abstract: This paper uses longitudinal data from Australia to examine the extent to which overskilling – the extent to which work-related skills and abilities are utilized in current employment – is a transitory phenomenon. The results suggest that while overskilled workers are much more likely to want to quit their current job, they are also relatively unconfident of finding an improved job match. Furthermore, some of the greater mobility observed among overskilled workers is due to involuntary job separations, and even in instances where job separations are voluntary, the majority of moves do not result in improved skills matches.
145 citations
TL;DR: This paper explored the influence of working conditions on work-family conflict (WFC) among married/cohabiting employees across seven European countries and found that a policy emphasis on improving work conditions is likely to have major leverage in reducing WFC.
Abstract: This article explores the influence of working conditions on work-family conflict (WFC) among married/cohabiting employees across seven European countries. Using data from the European Social Survey, the paper first investigates the role of working conditions relative to household level characteristics in mediating work-family conflict at the individual level. It then considers whether perceived conflict is lower in countries with coordinated production regimes and where social policy is more supportive of combining paid work and care demands. For men the lowest rates of WFC occurred in Denmark, Sweden and Norway, so for men there was a distinct ‘Nordic’ effect consistent with the welfare and production regime expectations. For women, we find paradoxically that ‘raw’ levels of work-family conflict are particularly high in France, Denmark and Sweden where supports for reconciling work and family life are high. Our models show that the high conflict among French women can be explained by household composition factors and so is due to higher levels of family pressures. Higher levels of conflict among Danish and Swedish women appear to be associated with their longer hours of work. Work conditions are found to play a larger role than family characteristics in accounting for work-family conflict, both in the country level models and in the pooled models. While this partly reflects our focus on the spillover of work into family life, it is notable that family characteristics have little effect in mediating work pressures. The results suggest that a policy emphasis on improving work conditions is likely to have major leverage in reducing work-family conflict.
142 citations
131 citations
TL;DR: Two new indices for measuring research quality and quantity are introduced, and their performance for the 100 most prolific economists is tested.
Abstract: The h-index is a recent but already quite popular way of measuring research quality and quantity. However, it discounts highly-cited papers. The g-index corrects for this, but it is sensitivity to the number of never-cited papers. Besides, h- or g-index-based rankings have a large number of ties. Therefore, this paper introduces two new indices, and tests their performance for the 100 most prolific economists. A researcher has a t-number (f-number) of t (f) if t (f) is the largest number for which it holds that she has t (f) publications for which the geometric (harmonic) average number of citations is at least t (f). The new indices overcome the shortcomings of the old indices.
117 citations
TL;DR: This article explored the characteristics of students taking private tuition and the impact of such tuition on academic outcomes in the Republic of Ireland, finding that participation in private tuition is disproportionately concentrated among students from middle-class families, those with higher prior performance and those with greater engagement in the schooling process.
Abstract: A number of countries, including Ireland, have experienced a recent growth in the prevalence of ‘shadow education’, that is, paid private tuition outside the schooling system. Previous international studies have indicated that such tuition can enhance academic performance and facilitate access to tertiary education. However, such studies have rarely taken account of important differences between those taking private tuition and other students. This paper explores the characteristics of students taking private tuition and the impact of such tuition on academic outcomes in the Republic of Ireland. Participation in private tuition is disproportionately concentrated among students from middle‐class families, those with higher prior performance and those with greater engagement in the schooling process. When the selective nature of the group taking private tuition is accounted for, private tuition yields no advantages in terms of upper secondary examination performance. It is argued that, rather than represent...
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals, and found that there is extensive over-skilling state dependence in the workplace, and to the degree that over-training can be interpreted as skills underutilisation and worker-job mismatch, this is an important finding.
Abstract: This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues by asking whether overskilling is a self-perpetuating labour market state (state dependence), and whether state dependence differs by education pathway. The paper uses a dynamic random effects probit which includes Mundlak corrections and it models the initial conditions following Heckman's method. It finds that there is extensive overskilling state dependence in the workplace, and to the degree that overskilling can be interpreted as skills underutilisation and worker-job mismatch, this is an important finding. Overskilled workers with a higher degree show the highest state dependence, while workers with vocational education show none. Workers with no post-school qualifications are somewhere between these two groups. The finding that higher degree graduates suffer the greatest overskilling state dependence, combined with the well-established finding that they also suffer the highest overskilling wage penalty, offers an alternative and useful perspective to compare the attributes of vocational and degree qualifications.
TL;DR: The authors examined the incidence and wage effects of overskilling in Australia and found that approximately 30% of employees believed themselves to be moderately over-skilled and 11% believed themselves severely over-trained, with the penalty ranging from 6% among vocationally qualified employees to just less than 20% for graduates.
Abstract: This paper examines the incidence and wage effects of overskilling in Australia. It finds that approximately 30 per cent of employees believed themselves to be moderately overskilled and 11 per cent believed themselves to be severely overskilled. The incidence of skills mismatch varied little when the sample was split by education. After controlling for individual and job characteristics as well as the potential bias arising from individual unobserved heterogeneity, severely overskilled workers suffer an average wage penalty of 10.2 per cent with the penalty ranging from about 6 per cent among vocationally qualified employees to just less than 20 per cent for graduates.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002, and use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined three hypotheses about the processes producing smoking inequalities: social class inequalities reflect differences across education groups in knowledge of the risks of smoking, living conditions of lower social class groups leads to the development of lower selfefficacy and a lower propensity to quit smoking.
Abstract: Rates of smoking have decreased dramatically in most Northern European countries over the last 50 years or so, but manual working class groups are substantially more likely to smoke daily than are the professional and managerial classes. This article examines three hypotheses about the processes producing these inequalities. The first argues that social class inequalities reflect differences across education groups in knowledge of the risks of smoking. The second suggests that the living conditions of lower social class groups leads to the development of lower self-efficacy and a lower propensity to quit smoking. The third states that smoking has a functional use among poorer individuals. This article draws upon data from the Republic of Ireland to assess these hypotheses. Our analysis provides some support for the first hypothesis in that education independently reduces the odds of a manual class person smoking relative to a non-manual by 12 per cent. The second hypothesis is not supported by the data. The third hypothesis gains the most support: measures of disadvantage and deprivation account for almost one-third of the class differential in smoking. The results suggest that smoking cessation policy should reflect the importance of social and economic context in quitting behaviour.
TL;DR: In this paper, a model of long-run price setting behavior is specified and tested to assess pricing power in key sectors, and the results indicated that the world price, proxied by the US price, was less of a constraint than the EU price.
Abstract: Environmental tax reform could bear heavily on manufacturing sectors that are energy intensive and highly traded, in particular if their options for adapting technology are limited. However, to the extent that such sectors can pass on the cost of the environmental taxes through higher prices charged to their customers, they will not suffer a lasting drop in profitability or output. To assess pricing power in key sectors, a model of long-run price setting behaviour is specified and tested. Significant and plausible results emerged from this exercise. Of the six sectors analysed, the Basic metals sector revealed least pricing power and, hence, greatest vulnerability, and the Non-metallic minerals sector revealed most pricing power. The results indicated that the world price, proxied by the US price, was less of a constraint than the EU price, proxied by the German price. Thus, international competitiveness fears are reduced not just where there is good potential for adapting technology but also if applicati...
TL;DR: In this paper, the stability of International Environmental Agreements (IEA) is analyzed by using game theory and the integrated assessment model FUND provides the cost-benefit functions of pollution abatement for sixteen different world regions.
Abstract: The stability of International Environmental Agreements (IEA) is analyzed by using game theory. The integrated assessment model FUND provides the cost-beneflt payofi functions of pollution abatement for sixteen difierent world regions. The farsighted stability concept of Chwe (1994) is used and solved by combinatorial algorithms. Farsighted stability assumes perfect foresight of the players and predicts which coalitions can be formed when players are farsighted. All farsightedly stable coalitions are found, and their improvement to environment and welfare is considerable. The farsightedly stable coalitions are reflned further to preferred farsightedly stable coalitions, which are coalitions where the majority of coalition members reach higher proflts in comparison to any other farsightedly stable coalitions. Farsightedly stable coalitions contribute more to the improvement of environment and welfare in comparison to D’Aspremont stable ones (D’Aspremont et al., 1983). Considering multiple farsighted stable coalitions, participation in coalitions for environmental protection is signiflcantly increased, which is an optimistic result of our game theoretical model.
TL;DR: The authors proposed rigorous definitions of the balanced growth equivalents (BGE) for multiple regions and under uncertainty, and showed that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income.
Abstract: The Stern Review added balanced growth equivalents (BGE) to the economic climate change research agenda. We first propose rigorous definitions of the BGE for multiple regions and under uncertainty. We show that the change in the BGE is independent of the assumed scenario of per capita income. For comparable welfare economic assumptions as the Stern Review, we calculate lower changes in BGE between a business as usual scenario and one without climate impacts with the model FUND than the Stern Review found with the model PAGE. We find that mitigation policies give even lower changes in BGE and argue that those policy choices should be the focus of the research effort rather than total damage estimates. According to our results, the current carbon tax should be below $55/tC. Sensitivity analyses show that the Stern Review chose parameters that imply high impact estimates. However, for regionally disaggregated welfare functions, we find changes in BGE that are significantly higher than the results from the Stern Review both for total damage as for policy analysis. With regional disaggregation and high risk aversion, we observe fat tails and with that very high welfare losses.
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TL;DR: In this article, the relative merits of unidimensional versus multidimensional approaches to poverty and social exclusion are discussed, increasing concerns about reliance on nationally based income poverty measures in the context of EU-enlargement and the continuing relevance of class based explanations of variation in life chances.
Abstract: In this paper we address a set of interrelated issues. These comprise the relative merits of unidimensional versus multidimensional approaches to poverty and social exclusion, increasing concerns about reliance on nationally based income poverty measures in the context of EU-enlargement and the continuing relevance of class based explanations of variation in life chances. Employing the EU-SILC data set, we identify for each of a set of welfare regimes a group of economically vulnerable individuals. Contrary to the situation with national income poverty measures, levels of economic vulnerability vary systematically across welfare regimes. The multidimensional profile of the economically vulnerable sharply differentiates them from the remainder of the population. Unlike the national relative income approach, the focus on economic vulnerability produces a pattern of class differentiation that is not dominated by the contrast between the property owning classes and all others. In contrast to a European-wide relative income approach, it also simultaneously captures the fact that absolute levels of vulnerability are distinctively high among the lower social classes in the less affluent regimes while class relativities are significantly sharper in the more affluent regimes. No single indicator is likely to prove adequate in capturing the diversity of experience of poverty and social exclusion in an enlarged European Union. The most effective strategy may be to take more seriously the need to translate the conceptually compelling case for a multidimensional approach to social exclusion into an appropriate set of operational alternatives.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used data from three separate skill related surveys of firms in the Northern Ireland IT, Electronic Engineering and Mechanical Engineering industries in order to assess the extent to which the performance of high-tech firms are being constrained as a result of hard-to-fill and/or unfilled vacancies.
Abstract: This article utilizes data from three separate skill related surveys of firms in the Northern Ireland IT, Electronic Engineering and Mechanical Engineering industries in order to assess the extent to which the performance of high-tech firms are being constrained as a result of hard-to-fill and/or unfilled vacancies. Whist it was found that the determinants of skill shortage varied somewhat depending upon the definitional approach adopted, a high degree of correlation was found. With regards to the impacts of skill shortages on firm level performance, it was found that both hard-to-fill and unfilled vacancies had reduced output per worker levels by between 65 and 75% in affected firms, however, these impacts were only detecw after controlling for selection effects. The evidence suggests that standard OLS procedures can generate highly misleading results in studies of this nature.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that monetary and international factors played an equally important role as those non-monetary and domestic factors in generating the prolonged Japan's stagnation, and the Plaza Accord in 1985 managed to alter the major exchange rates mainly by verbal promises combined with coordinated monetary policies, and triggered the trend for the stronger real exchange rate of the yen.
Abstract: Most studies on Japan's “lost decade” have been broadly focused on its real and domestic aspects, such as total factory productivity (TPF), growth decline, non-performing loans, and governance. This paper shows that monetary and international factors played as an equally important role as those non-monetary and domestic factors in generating the prolonged Japan's stagnation. The Plaza Accord in 1985 managed to alter the major exchange rates mainly by verbal promises combined with coordinated monetary policies, and triggered the trend for the stronger real exchange rate of the yen. The subsequent monetary exchange rate policy kept the real exchanged greatly overvalued. Japanese industries endured a heavy burden during this period. J. Japanese Int. Economies 23 (2) (2009) 200–219.
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of additional interconnection on welfare and competition in the Irish electricity market were analyzed and it was shown that in the absence of strategic behavior of firms, most of the gains from trade derive from differences in size between countries, but from technology differences and are strongly influenced by fuel and carbon costs.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the relationship between work-life tension and social inequality, as measured by social class, drawing on evidence from the European Social Survey, and found that in all the countries under study, work life conflict is higher among professionals than non-professionals.
Abstract: Recent debates on time-use suggest that there is an inverse relationship between time poverty and income poverty (Aguiar and Hurst in Q J Econ C(3):969–1006, 2007), with Hammermesh and Lee (Rev Econ Stat 89(2):374–383, 2007) suggesting much time poverty is ‘yuppie kvetch’ or ‘complaining’. Gershuny (Soc Res Int Q Soc Sci 72(2):287–314, 2005) argues that busyness is the ‘badge of honour’: being busy is now a positive, privileged position and it is high status people who work long hours and feel busy. Is this also true of work-life conflict? This paper explores the relationship between work-life tension and social inequality, as measured by social class, drawing on evidence from the European Social Survey. To what extent is work-life conflict a problem of the (comparatively) rich and privileged professional/managerial classes, and is this true across European countries? The countries selected offer a range of institutional and policy configurations to maximise variation. Using regression modelling of an index of subjective work-life conflict, we find that in all the countries under study, work-life conflict is higher among professionals than non-professionals. Part of this is explained by the fact that professionals work longer hours and experience more work pressure than other social classes, though the effect remains even after accounting for these factors. While levels of work-life conflict vary across the countries studied, country variation in class differences is modest. We consider other explanations of why professionals report higher work-life conflict and the implications of our findings for debates on social inequality.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a different perspective on this topic, considering the role of biodiversity on tourists' choice of destination and duration of stay, and found that most of the biodiversity and landscape indicators included in the analysis turn out to be statistically significant in determining tourists' choices regarding the duration of their trip.
Abstract: This analysis provides an example of how biodiversity can be measured by means of different indicators, and how the latter can be used to assess the influence of the biodiversity profile of a region on the tourism flows towards it. Previous studies have considered environmental amenities as one of the determinants of tourism destination choice. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the destination’s biodiversity profile can be considered as a key component of environmental amenities. The main objective of this study is to propose a different perspective on this topic, considering the role of biodiversity on tourists’ choice of destination and duration of stay. Domestic Irish tourist flows have been chosen as a case study. The first step of the analysis required the construction of biodiversity indicators suitable for developing a biodiversity profile of each Irish county. Subsequently, a model was developed so as to explain the total number of nights spent in any location as a function of a set of explanatory variables including information about the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, biodiversity and the landscape profile of the county of destination and features of the trip. Results show that most of the biodiversity and landscape indicators included in the analysis turn out to be statistically significant in determining tourists’ choices regarding the duration of their trip. As a result, policies pursuing biodiversity conservation appear to have a positive impact on the revenue of regional tourism.
01 Dec 2009
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors conducted an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5 and showed that the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to US$2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%.
Abstract: Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to US$2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The paper also shows various sensitivity runs exhibiting up to 3 times the level of damage relative to the base run.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors take advantage of the availability of European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data to address both weak and strong versions of the Europeanization of reference groups thesis.
Abstract: In this article we take advantage of the availability of European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data to address both weak and strong versions of the Europeanization of reference groups thesis. The former proposes that common standards of evaluation emerge as a consequence of knowledge of conditions in other societies. The latter argues that people increasingly perceive themselves as part of a larger European stratification system. Our analysis leads us to reject both versions of the thesis. Material deprivation rather than having a uniform effect is highly dependent on national context. If a process of convergence is underway, it is one that as yet has had a limited impact. In circumstances where the Europeanization of inequality is raising issues relating to both national and transnational forms of legitimacy, it is important to understand that there is no necessary relationship between such Europeanization and the Europeanization of reference groups.
TL;DR: Work-life conflict has been linked to decreased job and life satisfaction as well as stress-related outcomes including psychological strain, anxiety and depression, exhaustion and alcohol abuse (Allen et al. 2000) as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: This special issue compares work-life conflict in Europe using the European Social Survey: this introductory article attempts to provide a synthesis of the issue. It sets the scene for the papers that follow, discussing the concept of work-life conflict and its measurement. It considers previous research and approaches, before considering the themes of individual articles. All the articles, and this editorial essay, draw on the valuable insights of an excellent team of reviewers. Reconciling work and family commitments has become a critical issue in European societies, against a backdrop of globalization and rapid technological change, an ageing population and concerns over labour market participation and falling fertility (OECD 2001; Jacobs and Gerson 2004). Within the European union the ‘reconciliation of work and family’ has become a core concern for policy and encouraged national-level debate and policy intervention. As an indicator of quality of life, work-life balance has gained both academic and policy currency. Work-life conflict has a potentially detrimental impact on personal effectiveness, marital relations, child–parent relationships and even child development (Gornick and Meyers 2003). It has also been linked to decreased job and life satisfaction as well as stress-related outcomes including psychological strain, anxiety and depression, exhaustion and alcohol abuse (Allen et al. 2000). The increased focus on work-life conflict is associated not only with a greater emphasis on quality of life but also with emerging challenges to long-standing welfare state arrangements. The increasing salience of human capital, adaptability and flexibility has
TL;DR: This article used a McFadden choice model to measure the importance of destination, household and seasonal characteristics to the tourism destination choices of Irish households, and identified differences in preferences across seasons and a change over time of the effect of destination country GDP on Irish holiday destination choices.
TL;DR: In this article, it is shown that the expected social cost of carbon, corrected for uncertainty and inequity, is approximate 60 US dollar per metric tonne of carbon (or roughly $17 per tonn of CO2) under the assumption that catastrophic risk is zero.
Abstract: It is well-known that the discount rate is crucially important for estimating the social cost of carbon, a standard indicator for the seriousness of climate change and desirable level of climate policy. The Ramsey equation for the discount rate has three components: the pure rate of time preference, a measure of relative risk aversion, and the rate of growth of per capita consumption. Much of the attention on the appropriate discount rate for long-term environmental problems has focussed on the role played by the pure rate of time preference in this formulation. We show that the other two elements are numerically just as important in considerations of anthropogenic climate change. The elasticity of the marginal utility with respect to consumption is particularly important because it assumes three roles: consumption smoothing over time, risk aversion, and inequity aversion. Given the large uncertainties about climate change and widely asymmetric impacts, the assumed rates of risk and inequity aversion can be expected to play significant roles. The consumption growth rate plays multiple roles, as well. It is one of the determinants of the discount rate, and one of the drivers of emissions and hence climate change. We also find that the impacts of climate change grow slower than income, so the effective discount rate is higher than the real discount rate. Moreover, the differential growth rate between rich and poor countries determines the time evolution of the size of the equity weights. As there are a number of crucial but uncertain parameters, it is no surprise that one can obtain almost any estimate of the social cost of carbon. We even show that, for a low pure rate of time preference, the estimate of the social cost of carbon is indeed arbitrary—as one can exclude neither large positive nor large negative impacts in the very long run. However, if we probabilistically constrain the parameters to values that are implied by observed behaviour, we find that the expected social cost of carbon, corrected for uncertainty and inequity, is approximate 60 US dollar per metric tonne of carbon (or roughly $17 per tonne of CO2) under the assumption that catastrophic risk is zero. Data material available at http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/FUND.5679.0.html
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used data from the 2003 and 2006 National Employment Surveys to analyse the public-private sector wage gap in Ireland and investigated the impact of awards implemented under a number of wage setting institutions on the pay differential.
Abstract: This paper uses data from the 2003 and 2006 National Employment Surveys to analyse the public-private sector wage gap in Ireland. In particular, we investigate the impact of awards implemented under a number of wage setting institutions on the pay differential. These include the pay increases awarded by the Public Service Benchmarking Body in its first report and the increases given to higher-level posts in the public sector by the Review Body on Higher Remuneration in the Public Sector, Reports No. 40 and 41. The pay increases that were awarded under the Social Partnership process in Sustaining Progress and the Mid-Term Review of Part Two of Sustaining Progress are also captured in the data used. Furthermore, we assess the impact of pensions on the gap. The results indicate that the public sector pay premium increased dramatically from 9.7 to 21.6 per cent between 2003 and 2006. Furthermore, we found that by 2006 senior public service workers earned almost 8 per cent more than their private sector counterparts, while those in lower-level grades earned between 22 and 31 per cent more. The public premium results derived in this paper relating to March 2006 predate the payment of the two most recent Social Partnership wage deals, along with the pay increases awarded in the second Benchmarking exercise and by the Review Body on Higher Remuneration in Reports No. 42 and 43. The results presented raise serious questions with respect to the justification for any further boosts to the pay levels of public sector workers. Finally, the study highlights the importance of correcting for differences in pension coverage between public and private sector workers when making any assessment of the public-private sector pay differential.