Showing papers by "Institute for the Study of Labor published in 2002"

The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post-Secondary Schooling

Abstract: This paper examines the family income -- college enrollment relationship and the evidence on credit constraints in post-secondary schooling. We distinguish short-run liquidity constraints from the long-term factors that promote cognitive and noncognitive ability. Long-run factors crystallized in ability are the major determinants of the family income -- schooling relationship, although there is some evidence that up to 8% of the U.S. population is credit constrained in a short-run sense. Evidence that IV estimates of the returns to schooling exceed OLS estimates is sometimes claimed to support the existence of substantial credit constraints. This argument is critically examined.

Psychological Foundations of Incentives

Abstract: During the last two decades economists have made much progress in understanding incentives, contracts and organizations. Yet, they constrained their attention to a very narrow and empirically questionable view of human motivation. The purpose of this Paper is to show that this narrow view of human motivation may severely limit understanding the determinants and effects of incentives. Economists may fail to understand the levels and the changes in behavior if they neglect motives like the desire to reciprocate or the desire to avoid social disapproval. We show that monetary incentives may backfire and reduce the performance of agents or their compliance with rules. In addition, these motives may generate very powerful incentives themselves.

Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't and What We Should

Abstract: This essay surveys macroeconomic issues that marked the transition from centrally planned to market economy in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. We first establish a set of stylized facts of the transition so far, namely: (1) output fell, (2) capital shrank, (3) labor moved, (4) trade reoriented, (5) the structure changed, (6) institutions collapsed, and (7) transition costs. We then critically survey the theoretical literature on transition, discussing various explanations for the initial output fall as well as medium term issues, such as optimal speed of transition, disorganization, institutions and sectoral reallocation as a source of output dynamics. Last, we review the empirical literature to assess how well it translates the theoretical models and explains the stylized facts. The essay concludes with a succinct list of suggestions for future research.

The Effect of Child Care and Part Time Opportunities on Participation and Fertility Decisions in Italy

Abstract: Economic models of household behavior typically yield the prediction that increases in schooling levels and wage rates of married women lead to increases in their labor supply and reductions in fertility. In Italy, as well as in other Southern European countries, low labor market participation rates of married women are observed together with low birth rates. Our proposed explanation for this apparent anomaly involves the Italian institutional structure, particularly as reflected in rigidities and imperfections in the labor market and characteristics of the publicly-funded child care system. These rigidities tend to simultaneously increase the costs of having children and to discourage the labor market participation of married women. We analyze a model of labor supply and fertility, using panel data from the Bank of Italy which have been merged with regional data describing the available opportunities in each sample household's environment. The empirical results show that the availability of child care and part time work increase both the probability of working and having a child. Policies which would provide more flexible working hours choices and greater child care availability would aid in reducing the financial burden of children.

Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey: Note

Abstract: This note describes the construction and provision of an Internet database providing private and public sector union membership, coverage, and density estimates compiled from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Economy-wide estimates are provided beginning in 1973, estimates by state, detailed industry, and detailed occupation begin in 1983, and estimates by metropolitan area begin in 1986. The database is updated annually and can be accessed on the web.

The Role of Policy and Institutions for Productivity and Firm Dynamics

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence on the role that policy and institutional settings in both product and labour market play for productivity and firm dynamics. It exploits a new firm-level database for ten OECD countries and industry-level data for a broader set of countries, together with a set of indicators of regulation and institutional settings in product and labour markets. Aggregate productivity patterns are largely the result of within-firm performance. But, the contribution from firm dynamic processes should not be overlooked, most notably in high-tech industries where new firms tend to play an important role. Industry productivity performance is negatively affected by strict product market regulations, especially if there is a significant technology gap with the technology leader. Likewise, high hiring and firing costs seem to hinder productivity, especially when these costs are not offset by lower wages and/or more internal training. Moreover, burdensome regulations ...

Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance

Abstract: This chapter examines the labor supply effects of social insurance programs. We argue that this topic deserves separate treatment from the rest of the labor supply literature because individuals may be imperfectly informed as to the rules of the programs and because key parameters are likely to differ for those who are eligible for social insurance programs, such as the disabled. Furthermore, differences in social insurance programs often provide natural experiments with exogenous changes in wages or incomes that can be used to estimate labor supply responses. Finally, social insurance often affects different margins of labor supply. For example, the labor supply literature deals mostly with adjustments in the number of hours worked, whereas the incentives of social insurance programs frequently affect the decision of whether to work at all. The empirical work on unemployment insurance (UI) and workers' compensation (WC) insurance finds that the programs tend to increase the length of time employees spend out of work. Most of the estimates of the elasticities of lost work time that incorporate both the incidence and duration of claims are close to 1.0 for unemployment insurance and between 0.5 and 1.0 for workers' compensation. These elasticities are substantially larger than the labor supply elasticities typically found for men in studies of the effects of wages or taxes on hours of work. The evidence on disability insurance and (especially) social security retirement suggests much smaller and less conclusively established labor supply effects. Part of the explanation for this difference probably lies in the fact that UI and WC lead to short-run variation in wages with mostly a substitution effect. Our review suggest that it would be misleading to apply a universal set of labor supply elasticities to these diverse problems and populations.

When Information Dominates Comparison. Learning from Russian Subjective Panel Data

Abstract: We propose a micro-econometric investigation into the relation between subjective life satisfaction and income distribution, using a balanced panel survey of the Russian population (RLMS), running from 1994 to 2000, including 4096 individuals. We show that in the context of the Russian very volatile environment, Hirschman's (1973) "tunnel effect" conjecture seems to be validated: Variables reflecting income distribution do not influence satisfaction through social comparisons; individuals rather seem to use their informational content in order to form their expectations. The reference group's income exerts a positive influence on individual satisfaction, which contrasts with other studies on the subject. Inequality indices do not affect individual welfare.

Importing Equality? The Impact of Globalization on Gender Discrimination

Abstract: While researchers have long held that discrimination cannot endure in an increasingly competitive environment, there has been little work testing this dynamic process. This paper tests the hypothesis (based on Becker 1957) that increased competition resulting from globalization in the 1980s forced employers to reduce costly discrimination against women. The empirical strategy exploits differences in market structure across industries to identify the impact of trade on the gender wage gap: because concentrated industries face little competitive pressure to reduce discrimination, an increase in competition from increased trade should lead to a reduction in the gender wage gap. We compare the change in the residual gender wage gap between 1976 and 1993 in concentrated versus competitive manufacturing industries, using the latter as a control for changes in the gender wage gap that are unrelated to competitive pressures. We find that increased competition through trade did contribute to the relative improvement in female wages in concentrated relative to competitive industries, suggesting that, at least in this sense, trade may benefit women by reducing firms' ability to discriminate.

Labour Market Institutions and Demographic Employment Patterns

Abstract: Using data from 17 OECD countries over the 1960-96 period and a simple theoretical framework, we investigate the impact of institutions on the relative employment of youth, women, and older individuals. Empirically, the employment prospects of these groups are especially affected by poorly performing labour markets. Theoretically, we show that labour market institutions meant to improve workers' income share imply larger disemployment effects when labour supply is more elastic. Hence, demographic groups other than prime-age males (who have little to do out of employment) should be relatively less employed in more unionized and/or regulated labour markets. We regress relative employment and unemployment outcomes on a standard set of labour market institutions, aggregate unemployment, and period and country effects. This design allows us to control for unmeasured country-specific factors that affect relative employment and unemployment. We find that the effects of wage-setting structures, labour taxes, employment protection, retirement-related institutions and unemployment insurance schemes are broadly consistent with theoretical predictions. In particular, for both men and women, more extensive involvement of unions in wage-setting significantly decreases the employment rate of young and older individuals relative to the prime-aged, with no significant effects on the relative unemployment of these groups. In contrast, a larger role for unions has insignificant effects on male-female employment differentials, but does raise female unemployment relative to male unemployment. This pattern of results suggests that union wage-setting policies price the young and elderly out of employment and drive disemployed individuals in these groups to non-labour-force (education, retirement) states. The situation for women is more complex. A possible scenario is that high union wages encourage female labour force participation, but that women who would otherwise be disemployed by high wage floors are able to find work in unregulated sectors or are absorbed by public employment.

Do Enclaves Matter in Immigrant Adjustment

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the determinants and consequences of immigrant/linguistic concentrations (enclaves). The reasons for the formation of these concentrations are discussed. Hypotheses are developed regarding "ethnic goods" and the effect of concentrations on the immigrant's language skills, as well as the effects on immigrant earnings of destination language skills and the linguistic concentration. These hypotheses are tested using PUMS data from the 1990 U.S. Census on adult male immigrants from non-English speaking countries. Linguistic concentrations reduce the immigrant's own English language skills. Moreover, immigrant's earnings are lower the lower their English-language proficiency and the greater the linguistic concentration in their origin language of the area in which they live. The adverse effects on earnings of poor destination language skills and of immigrant concentrations exist independently of each other.

Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms

Abstract: Are there productivity spillovers from FDI to domestic firms, and, if so, how much should host countries be willing to pay to attract FDI? To examine these questions we use a plant-level panel covering U.K. manufacturing from 1973 through 1992. Across a wide range of specifications, we estimate a significantly positive correlation between a domestic plant's TFP and the foreign-affiliate share of activity in that planti's industry. This is consistent with positive FDI spillovers. We do not generally find significant effects on plant TFP of the foreign-affiliate share of activity in that plant's region. Typical estimates suggest that a 10 percentage-point increase in foreign presence in a U.K. industry raises the TFP of that industry's domestic plants by about 0.5 percent. We also use these estimates to calculate the per-job value of these spillovers. These calculated values appear to be less than per-job incentives governments have granted in recent high-profile cases, in some cases several times less.

Leadership Skills and Wages

Abstract: American business seems to be infatuated with its workers' "leadership" skills. Is there such a thing, and is it rewarded in labor markets? Using the Project Talent, NLS72 and High School and Beyond datasets, we show that men who occupied leadership positions in high school earn more as adults, even when cognitive skills are held constant. The pure leadership-wage effect varies from four percent for a broad definition of leadership in 1971 to twenty-four percent for a narrow definition in 1992, and appears to have increased over time. High-school leaders are more likely to occupy managerial occupations as adults, and leadership skills command a higher wage premium within managerial occupations than other jobs. We find evidence that leadership skill has a component that is determined before high school, but also find evidence that it is "teachable".

Wage Gains Associated with Height as a Form of Health Human Capital

Abstract: Height is consulted as a latent indicator of early nutrition and lifetime health status. Height is observed to increase in recent decades in populations where per capita national income has increased and public health activities have grown. Height is determined by genetic make up and realized in part through satisfactory nutrition and health-related care and conditions. Alternative instrumental variables (IV) are explored which proxy price and income constraints which are expected to influence the latter reproducible human capital investments in height. I report OLS and IV estimates of the partial effect of height on log hourly wages in recent national surveys from three countries: Ghana, Brazil and the United States. I conclude that the human capital productivity effect of height estimated by parent education IVs in the US and Ghana are many times larger than the OLS estimates, and in Ghana and Brazil the regional price IVs estimates also imply a substantially larger human capital wage effects of height compared with the OLS estimates. The OLS estimates of height effects on wages are dominated by the genetic variation in height, and appear to understate substantially the human capital returns to health and nutrition inputs which increase adult height.

Women, War and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Mid-Century

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of increased female labor supply on the labor market. To identify a source of exogenous variation in female labor supply, we exploit differences in female labor force participation before and after WWII. The War drew many women into the labor force as men left for overseas. The extent of mobilization for the War was not uniform across states, however. While in some states almost 55 percent of eligible males exited the labor market for military service, in other states the mobilization rate was just over 40 percent. We find that in states with greater mobilization of men, women worked substantially more in the immediate aftermath of the War and in 1950, though not in 1940. We interpret the differential growth in female labor force participation between 1940 and 1950 as corresponding to shifts in women's labor supply induced by the War, and use state mobilization rates as an instrument to study the consequences of greater female labor supply for the labor market. We find that greater female labor supply: (1) Leads to lower female wages; a 10 percent increase in female employment reduces female earnings by 7 to 11 percent; (2) Leads to lower male wages; a 10 percent increase in female employment reduces male earnings by 4 to 6 percent; (3) Increases the college premium and wage inequality among males generally. Our findings suggest that in the aftermath of WWII, women were closer substitutes to high school graduate and relatively low-skill males, but not to those with less than high school and the lowest skills.

Internet Job Search and Unemployment Durations

Abstract: After decades of stability, the technologies used by workers to locate new jobs began to change rapidly with the diffusion of internet access in the late 1990's. Which types of persons incorporated the internet into their job search strategy, and did searching for work on line help these workers find new jobs faster? We address these questions using measures of internet job search derived from the December 1998 and August 2000 CPS Computer and Internet Supplements, matched with job search outcomes from subsequent CPS files. We find that internet searchers are positively selected on observables, but negatively selected on unobservables. A beneficial (unemployment-duration reducing) causal effect of internet job search is consistent with our estimates only if negative selection on unobservables is especially strong, in other words only if the population of on-line resumes is strongly adversely selected.

Job Search Methods and Outcomes

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the process of job search, using a unique, large-scale data set for Portugal that allows us to assess the effect of job search methods on escape rates from unemployment and, in a new departure, the impact of job-finding methods used by the unemployed on earnings. In each case, the characteristics of workers receive careful attention. In addition, the effectiveness of the job search process is evaluated in terms of the periodicity of the resulting job match. Some emphasis is accorded the role of the public employment agency which, despite its frequency as a search vehicle, is found to have a low hit rate and to lead to low-paying jobs. Such jobs are also shorter lasting, only partly because they are more likely to be of a fixed-term nature. The policy backdrop is provided by the "employment chapter" of the Treaty of Amsterdam. Given our results, some concern naturally arises as to the capacity of the public employment agency to meet the targets set under European employment initiatives.

The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming

Abstract: According to the life-cycle model, mortality risk will influence both retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth. We estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of Social Security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional Social Security annuities. We find that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire earlier and claim earlier than those with higher subjective probabilities, but the effects are not large. The great majority of workers claim as soon as they are eligible.

The Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications in Britain

Abstract: This paper uses data from the 1991 sweep of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1998 Labour Force Survey (LFS) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the labour market returns to academic and vocational qualifications. The results show that the wage premia from academic qualifications are typically higher than from vocational qualifications. However, this gap is reduced somewhat, when we control for the amount of time taken to acquire different qualifications. This is particularly important for vocational courses, which generally take shorter time periods to complete. In the paper we also investigate how returns vary by gender, subsequent qualifications, and the natural ability of individuals. Finally, by comparing the NCDS results with those from the LFS, we estimate the bias that can result from not controlling for factors such as ability, family background and measurement error. The results reveal that the estimated returns in the NCDS equations controlling for ability, family background and measurement error are similar to the simple OLS estimates obtained with the LFS, which do not control for these factors. This suggests that the biases generally offset one another.

Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?

Abstract: The paper investigates whether there is a causal link between poverty or low education and participation in politically motivated violence and terrorist activities. After presenting a discussion of theoretical issues, we review evidence on the determinants of hate crimes. This literature finds that the occurrence of hate crimes is largely independent of economic conditions. Next we analyze data on support for attacks against Israeli targets from public opinion polls conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. These polls indicate that support for violent attacks does not decrease among those with higher education and higher living standards. The core contribution of the paper is a statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in Hezbollah militant activities in Lebanon. The evidence we have assembled suggests that having a living standard above the poverty line or a secondary school or higher education is positively associated with participation in Hezbollah. We also find that Israeli Jewish settlers who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank in the early 1980s were overwhelmingly from high-paying occupations. The conclusion speculates on why economic conditions and education are largely unrelated to participation in, and support for, terrorism.

Temporary Work in Turbulent Times: The Swedish Experience

Abstract: Sweden has experienced a substantial increase in temporary work over the 1990s, with most of the rise occurring during a severe macroeconomic recession with mass unemployment. By the early 1990s, workers on fixed-term contracts accounted for 10 percent of the number of employees; by the end of the decade they accounted for 16 percent. The paper presents the Swedish institutional setting, documents basic stylized facts about fixed-term contracts, and discusses the causes of their increased prevalence. Our analysis reveals that open-ended and temporary employment exhibit strikingly different cyclical behavior with temporary employment being more volatile. A recession is associated with an initial decline in temporary employment followed by a sharp rise from the trough to the end of the recession. We argue that the severe recession of the 1990s is a major factor behind the rise in temporary work in Sweden. Adverse macroeconomic conditions make firms more prone to offer fixed-term contracts and workers more willing to accept them.

Youth Unemployment and Employment Policy: A Global Perspective

Abstract: This study discusses in depth the youth unemployment "problem" and examines the various policy responses to it, including education and training, and active labour market policy. It emphasizes the need for adequate labour market information, policy monitoring and programme evaluation to help provide more and better-quality jobs for young people - while also offering specific recommendations and guidelines for this age group in industrialized, transition and developing countries, While analysing the characteristics, causes and consequences of youth unemployment, the study explores the nature of the youth labour market and how it differs from the labour market for other workers. It looks at minimum wages, as well as the pivotal role of education and training systems. It also identifies vital ILO instruments concerned with young people and examines the broader international policy challenges faced by many countries around the world. In particular, it discusses the failure of many countries to integrate young people into good, quality employment. Active labour market policies, both successful and unsuccessful, are evaluated, and the book looks closely at policies promoting wage employment, self-employment and programmes aimed at disadvantaged young people. The book reveals how youth unemployment is first and foremost a consequence of poor macroeconomic performance and suggests ways in which countries can formulate coordinated youth employment policies according to the state of their economies. In contrast to prevalent approaches in the literature, it emphasizes the need to go beyond a purely supply-side response. The study includes strategies for involving governments, as well as employers' and workers' organizations, in tackling youth unemployment and providing alternatives.

Envy and Compassion in Tournaments

Abstract: Many experiments indicate that most individuals are not purely motivated by material self interest, but also care about the well being of others. In this paper we examine tournaments among inequity averse agents, who dislike disadvantageous inequity (envy) and advantageous inequity (compassion). It turns out that inequity averse agents exert higher effort levels than purely self-interested agents for a given prize structure. Contrary to standard tournament theory first-best efforts can not be implemented when prizes are endogenous. Several extensions are studied like the case of spiteful agents, sabotage, asymmetric agents and an application on the choice between vertical and lateral promotions within firms.

Do Incentive Contracts Undermine Voluntary Cooperation

Abstract: In this paper we provide experimental evidence indicating that incentive contracts may undermine voluntary cooperation. This suggests that explicit incentives may have costly side effects that have been largely neglected by economists. In our experiments the undermining effect is so strong that the incentive contracts are less efficient than contracts without any incentives. Buyers, who are in the role of principals, nonetheless, prefer the incentive contracts because they allow them tonappropriate a much larger share of the (smaller) total surplus and are, hence, more profitable for them. The undermining of voluntary cooperation through incentives is, in principle, consistent with models of inequity aversion and reciprocity. Additional experiments show, however, that the reduction of voluntary cooperation throughnincentives is partly due to a framing effect.

What Fundamentals Drive World Migration

Abstract: OECD governments note rising immigration with alarm and grapple with policies aimed at selecting certain migrants and keeping out others. Economists appear to be well armed to advise governments since they are responsible for an impressive literature that examines the characteristics of individual immigrants, their absorption and the consequences of their migration on both sending and receiving regions. Economists are, however, much less well armed to speak to the determinants of the world migrations that give rise to public alarm. This Paper offers a quantitative assessment of the economic and demographic fundamentals that have driven and are driving world migration, across different historical epochs and around the world. The Paper is organized around three questions: how do the standard theories of migration perform when confronted with evidence drawn from more than a century of world migration experience? How do inequality and poverty influence world migration? Is it useful to distinguish between migration pressure and migration ex-post, or between the potential demand for visas and the actual use of them?

Estimating the Social Return to Higher Education: Evidence from Longitudinal and Repeated Cross-Sectional Data

Abstract: Economists have speculated for at least a century that the social return to education may exceed the private return. In this paper, I estimate spillovers from college education by comparing wages for otherwise similar individuals who work in cities with different shares of college graduates in the labor force. OLS estimates show a large positive relationship between the share of college graduates in a city and individual wages, over and above the private return to education. A key issue in this comparison is the presence of unobservable individual characteristics, such as ability, that may raise wages and be correlated with college share. I use a confidential version of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate a model of non-random selection of workers among cities. By observing the same individual over time, I can control for differences in unobserved ability across individuals and differences in the return to skills across cities. I then investigate the hypothesis that the correlation between college share and wages is due to unobservable city-specific shocks that may raise wages and attract more highly educated workers to different cities. To control for this source of potential bias, I turn to Census data and use two instrumental variables: the lagged city demographic structure and the presence of a land--grant college. The results from Census data are remarkably consistent with those based on the NLSY sample. A percentage point increase in the supply of college graduates raises high school drop-outs' wages by 1.9%, high school graduates' wages by 1.6%, and college graduates wages by 0.4%. The effect is larger for less educated groups, as predicted by a conventional demand and supply model. But even for college graduates, an increase in the supply of college graduates increases wages, as predicted by a model that includes conventional demand and supply factors as well as spillovers.

Employment consequences of restrictive permanent contracts: Evidence from Spanish labor market reforms

Abstract: Temporary employment contracts allowing unrestricted dismissals were introduced in Spain in 1984 and quickly came to account for most new jobs. As a result, temporary employment increased from around 10% in the mid-eighties to more than 30% in the early nineties. In 1997, however, the Spanish government attempted to reduce the incidence of temporary employment by reducing payroll taxes and dismissal costs for permanent contracts. In this paper, we use individual data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey to estimate the effects of reduced payroll taxes and dismissal costs on the distribution of employment and worker flows. We exploit the fact that recent reforms apply only to certain demographic groups to set up a natural experiment research design that can be used to study the effects of contract regulations. Our results show that the reduction of payroll taxes and dismissal costs increased the employment of young workers on permanent contracts. Results for older workers show insignificant effects. The results suggest a reasonably elastic response of permanent employment to nonwage labor costs for young workers. We also find positive effects on the transitions from unemployment and temporary employment into permanent employment for young and older workers, although the effects for older workers are not always significant. On the other hand, transitions from permanent employment to nonemployment increased only for older men, suggesting that the reform had little effect on dismissals.

International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the determinants and consequences of intercontinental migration over the past four centuries. It begins with a review of the history of primarily trans- Atlantic migration to the New World during the period of Colonial settlement. The contract and coerced migration from Europe and Africa gave way, from the 18th century, to an era of free European migration. The period 1850 to 1913 was one of mass migration, primarily from Europe to North America and Oceania and from parts of Asia (primarily India, China and Japan) to other parts of Asia, Africa and the New World. World wars, immigration restrictions and the Great Depression resulted in a period of low international migration (1913 to 1945). In the post-World War II period international migration again increased sharply, but with changes in the nature of the flows, and under the constraints of immigration controls. Europe joined North America and Oceania as a major destination, as did the oil producing Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf. The paper then explores the reasons for this international migration. Important factors include the relative wages in the origin and destination, the cost of international migration, the wealth to finance the investment, chain migration (kinship and information networks), as well as government subsidies to and restrictions on the free flow of people. The impact of international migration is explored in the context of a two-factor and a threefactor aggregate production function. Implications are developed for the aggregate (average) impact, as well as for the impact on the functional and personal distributions of income. The gainers and losers from international migration are considered. With insights on impact, a political economy approach is used to analyze the determinants of immigration controls. The influence on policy of gainers and losers from immigration was mediated by institutional change and by interest group politics. The long run relati

Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. Based on correlations of individual country fluctuations with the common component, we find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component. We also find some evidence that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the period after 1973.

Unemployment, Labour Force Composition and Sickness Absence: A Panel Data Study

Abstract: Sickness absence tends to be negatively correlated with unemployment. This may suggest disciplining effects of unemployment but may also reflect changes in the composition of the labor force. A panel of Norwegian register data for the years 1990-1995 is used to analyze sickness absences lasting more than two weeks. We estimate fixed effects models of the probability of absence and the number of days on sick leave conditional on absence. The county unemployment rate is found to affect the probability of absence negatively. When restricting the sample to workers who are present in the whole sample period, the negative relationship between absence and unemployment remains. The evidence on duration goes in the same direction. This indicates that the revealed procyclical variation in sickness absence is not driven by changes in the composition of the labor force.