Netherlands Forensic Institute

Abstract: We study the properties of a three-step approach to estimating the parameters of a latent structure model for categorical data and propose a simple correction for a common source of bias. Such models have a measurement part (essentially the latent class model) and a structural (causal) part (essentially a system of logit equations). In the three-step approach, a stand-alone measurement model is first defined and its parameters are estimated. Individual predicted scores on the latent variables are then computed from the parameter estimates of the measurement model and the individual observed scoring patterns on the indicators. Finally, these predicted scores are used in the causal part and treated as observed variables. We show that such a naive use of predicted latent scores cannot be recommended since it leads to a systematic underestimation of the strength of the association among the variables in the structural part of the models. However, a simple correction procedure can eliminate this systematic bias. This approach is illustrated on simulated and real data. A method that uses multiple imputation to account for the fact that the predicted latent variables are random variables can produce standard errors for the parameters in the structural part of the model.

Abstract: Nonrecombining Y-chromosomal microsatellites (Y-STRs) are widely used to infer population histories, discover genealogical relationships, and identify males for criminal justice purposes. Although a key requirement for their application is reliable mutability knowledge, empirical data are only available for a small number of Y-STRs thus far. To rectify this, we analyzed a large number of 186 Y-STR markers in nearly 2000 DNA-confirmed father-son pairs, covering an overall number of 352,999 meiotic transfers. Following confirmation by DNA sequence analysis, the retrieved mutation data were modeled via a Bayesian approach, resulting in mutation rates from 3.78 × 10−4 (95% credible interval [CI], 1.38 × 10−5 − 2.02 × 10−3) to 7.44 × 10−2 (95% CI, 6.51 × 10−2 − 9.09 × 10−2) per marker per generation. With the 924 mutations at 120 Y-STR markers, a nonsignificant excess of repeat losses versus gains (1.16:1), as well as a strong and significant excess of single-repeat versus multirepeat changes (25.23:1), was observed. Although the total repeat number influenced Y-STR locus mutability most strongly, repeat complexity, the length in base pairs of the repeated motif, and the father's age also contributed to Y-STR mutability. To exemplify how to practically utilize this knowledge, we analyzed the 13 most mutable Y-STRs in an independent sample set and empirically proved their suitability for distinguishing close and distantly related males. This finding is expected to revolutionize Y-chromosomal applications in forensic biology, from previous male lineage differentiation toward future male individual identification.

Abstract: The impact velocity of a liquid droplet can be deduced from its spatter pattern, but there has been controversy concerning details of how droplets respond after impact. The authors show which forces play a role in impact and spreading, and obtain an expression relating impact velocity to droplet volume and maximum diameter of the resulting pattern. This offers important insight for the analysis of bloodstains in forensic science, as well as for inkjet printing and other applications.

Abstract: Human iris color was one of the first traits for which Mendelian segregation was established. To date, the genetics of iris color is still not fully understood and is of interest, particularly in view of forensic applications. In three independent genome-wide association (GWA) studies of a total of 1406 persons and a genome-wide linkage study of 1292 relatives, all from the Netherlands, we found that the 15q13.1 region is the predominant region involved in human iris color. There were no other regions showing consistent genome-wide evidence for association and linkage to iris color. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the HERC2 gene and, to a lesser extent, in the neighboring OCA2 gene were independently associated to iris color variation. OCA2 has been implicated in iris color previously. A replication study within two populations confirmed that the HERC2 gene is a new and significant determinant of human iris color variation, in addition to OCA2. Furthermore, HERC2 rs916977 showed a clinal allele distribution across 23 European populations, which was significantly correlated to iris color variation. We suggest that genetic variants regulating expression of the OCA2 gene exist in the HERC2 gene or, alternatively, within the 11.7 kb of sequence between OCA2 and HERC2, and that most iris color variation in Europeans is explained by those two genes. Testing markers in the HERC2-OCA2 region may be useful in forensic applications to predict eye color phenotypes of unknown persons of European genetic origin.

Abstract: Phenotypic variation between human populations in skin pigmentation correlates with latitude at the continental level. A large number of hypotheses involving genetic adaptation have been proposed to explain human variation in skin colour, but only limited genetic evidence for positive selection has been presented. To shed light on the evolutionary genetic history of human variation in skin colour we inspected 118 genes associated with skin pigmentation in the Perlegen dataset, studying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and analyzed 55 genes in detail. We identified eight genes that are associated with the melanin pathway (SLC45A2, OCA2, TYRP1, DCT, KITLG, EGFR, DRD2 and PPARD) and presented significant differences in genetic variation between Europeans, Africans and Asians. In six of these genes we detected, by means of the EHH test, variability patterns that are compatible with the hypothesis of local positive selection in Europeans (OCA2, TYRP1 and KITLG) and in Asians (OCA2, DCT, KITLG, EGFR and DRD2), whereas signals were scarce in Africans (DCT, EGFR and DRD2). Furthermore, a statistically significant correlation between genotypic variation in four pigmentation candidate genes and phenotypic variation of skin colour in 51 worldwide human populations was revealed. Overall, our data also suggest that light skin colour is the derived state and is of independent origin in Europeans and Asians, whereas dark skin color seems of unique origin, reflecting the ancestral state in humans.