Showing papers in "Annals of Regional Science in 2008"

Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change

Abstract: This paper applies methods of multiple resolution map comparison to quantify characteristics for 13 applications of 9 different popular peer-reviewed land change models. Each modeling application simulates change of land categories in raster maps from an initial time to a subsequent time. For each modeling application, the statistical methods compare: (1) a reference map of the initial time, (2) a reference map of the subsequent time, and (3) a prediction map of the subsequent time. The three possible two-map comparisons for each application characterize: (1) the dynamics of the landscape, (2) the behavior of the model, and (3) the accuracy of the prediction. The three-map comparison for each application specifies the amount of the prediction’s accuracy that is attributable to land persistence versus land change. Results show that the amount of error is larger than the amount of correctly predicted change for 12 of the 13 applications at the resolution of the raw data. The applications are summarized and compared using two statistics: the null resolution and the figure of merit. According to the figure of merit, the more accurate applications are the ones where the amount of observed net change in the reference maps is larger. This paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of models using scientifically rigorous, generally applicable, and intellectually accessible statistical techniques.

A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use

Abstract: Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness massive and rapid changes in land use due to changes in demography, global trade, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Changes in demand for agricultural products and agrarian production structure are likely to have a large impact on landscape quality and the value of natural areas. Most studies address these changes either from a macro-economic perspective focusing on changes in the agricultural sector or from a local perspective by analyzing recent changes in landscapes for small case studies. This paper describes a methodology in which a series of models has been used to link global level developments influencing land use to local level impacts. It is argued that such an approach is needed to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics in Europe. An extended version of the global economic model (GTAP) and an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) are used to calculate changes in demand for agricultural areas at the country level while a spatially explicit land use change model (CLUE-s) was used to translate these demands to land use patterns at 1 km2 resolution. The global economic model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments and changes in agricultural and trade policies influencing the demand and supply for land use related products while the integrated assessment model accounts for changes in productivity as result of climate change and global land allocation. The land use change simulations at a high spatial resolution make use of country specific driving factors that influence the spatial patterns of land use, accounting for the spatial variation in the biophysical and socio-economic environment. Results indicate the large impact abandonment of agricultural land and urbanization may have on future European landscapes. Such results have the potential to support discussions on the future of the rural area and identify hot-spots of landscape change that need specific consideration. The high spatial and thematic resolution of the results allows the assessment of impacts of these changes on different environmental indicators, such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity. The global assessment allows, at the same time, to account for the tradeoffs between impacts in Europe and effects outside Europe.

Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use

Abstract: This paper presents two sets of functional indicators that were implemented and tested for the assessment of spatial aspects of future land-use configurations as simulated by a land-use model. This is potentially useful for the ex-ante evaluation of spatial planning policies. The indicators were applied in a Dutch case study and relate to two important themes in Dutch spatial planning: compact urbanisation and mixing of land uses. After a short introduction of these themes, the sets of indicators are presented which are used for their evaluation. These indicators are applied to simulations based on two scenarios for land-use development in the Netherlands up to 2030. After a discussion of the results we conclude that the combined application of land-use models and indicators produces new and potentially useful information for policy makers, although both the model and the associated indicators are still in a state of development.

Models to Predict the Economic Development Impact of Transportation Projects: Historical Experience and New Applications

Abstract: Methods used for assessing economic impacts of proposed transportation projects have continually evolved over time. Whereas they once focused largely on the economic benefit of time and cost savings for travelers, they may now encompass broader factors such as accessibility roles in supply chains, labor market expansion, global trade growth, and their economic development implications. This broader view can be particularly important when considering transportation projects affecting network connectivity and activities of logistics centers, inter-modal terminals, and international gateway facilities. Using examples throughout history, a generalized description is developed of the range of access, reliability, quality and cost factors that can affect the nature of economic growth impacts of transportation projects. While the set of factors is consistent with both theory and research findings, there has been a significant shortfall in their coverage by applied computer analysis models used for transportation decision-making. This article critically examines the coverage of access impacts by various types of predictive economic impact models, and then describes new directions in applied models to assess transportation projects impacts on business productivity, growth and attraction. Finally, it outlines an analysis framework that is designed to facilitate use of improved modeling methods for assessing economic impacts of multi-modal transportation investment.

An empirical analytical framework for agglomeration economies

Abstract: This paper proposes an empirical analytical framework for agglomeration economies based on a translog production-inverse input demand system. Estimation of the system allows us to identify effects on total factor productivity (TFP), partial factor productivity, factor prices and factor demands. It also provides a decomposition of the aggregate agglomeration elasticity into returns that arise from the increased efficiency of factor inputs and a “direct” agglomeration effect which exists over and above any factor augmentation. This enables us to indirectly address the problem of unobserved heterogeneity in factor “quality”. The paper provides an empirical application of the model using firm level data for UK manufacturing and service industries.

Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support.

Abstract: Land-use change is a key factor in the development of the human and physical environment. Models of land-use change help understand this intricate system and can provide valuable information on possible future land-use configurations. The latter is crucial for policy makers across the globe that have to deal with such varied topics as: urbanisation, deforestation, water management, erosion control and the like. This paper provides a concise introduction to the current state of land-use models, their applications to spatial policy issues and the main research issues in this field. It thus establishes the background for the six papers that make up this special issue on modelling land-use change for spatial planning support.

Location quotients versus spatial autocorrelation in identifying potential cluster regions

Abstract: Most cluster-based economic development programs use co-location to initially identify the spatial footprint of cluster areas. Geographic proximity (co- location) is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for potential clustering activity. Therefore, an assessment of industry location and density patterns becomes the first phase in the identification of potential cluster regions to be included in a cluster driven development policy. This paper compares the use of location quotients and Getis–Ord G i * in the identification of potential cluster regions in the transportation equipment industry of four states in the Midwestern USA. Also, both location quotients and G i * are used to classify counties with respect to their concentration of transportation equipment manufacturing.

Spatial externalities, neighbourhood rules and CA land-use modelling

Abstract: This paper investigates which, how and to what extent land-use related neighbourhood effects play a role in urban dynamics. To justify the use of cellular automata land-use models for spatial policy support, existing neighbourhood rules need to be better founded. This research eliminates a number of uncertainties in the land-use model outcomes by introducing improved empirically founded and regional-specific neighbourhood rules. This allows for a better evaluation and justification of spatial policy scenarios and their effects on future land-use dynamics.

Neighborhood impacts on land use change: a multinomial logit model of spatial relationships

Abstract: Models of land use change are central to forecasting urban futures. This work models the related processes of parcel subdivision and land development using a pair of recent GIS-encoded Austin, Texas land use maps. Based on binomial and multinomial logit models of subdivision and use change, a variety of lagged explanatory variables offer insight into land dynamics. Results indicated that local neighborhood conditions offer substantial predictive power, though such effects seem inconsequential beyond 2 miles. Various spatial tendencies in land development are identified here, and comparisons of predicted and actual land use changes (in 2005) reveal strengths and limitations of the models.

Exploring the connections among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership using structural equation modeling

Abstract: Using structural equation modeling, this study empirically examines the connections between job accessibility, workers per capita, income per capita, and autos per capita at the aggregate level with year 2000 census tract data in Sacramento County, CA. Under the specification of the conceptual model, the model implied covariance matrix exhibits a reasonably good fit to the observed covariance matrix. The direct and total effects are largely consistent with theory and/or with empirical observations across a variety of geographic contexts. It is demonstrated that structural equation modeling is a powerful tool for capturing the endogeneity among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership.

The use of activity-based modeling to analyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior

Abstract: This paper suggests that in order to analyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior an integrated framework that extend travel activity-based models to include various land-use issues such as residential location and work place should be developed and use. The importance of analyzing various land-use policies on travel behavior is continuously increasing as various policies such as transit-oriented developments, mixed land-use, different concentrations schemes, and more broadly Smart Growth, are often suggested as a means to mitigate transportation problems. Given our limited understanding of the effects of the various land-use polices on travel behavior it is imported to develop better approaches to analyze such policies. Activity-based models, that treat travel as a derivation of the demand for personal activities, provides an opportunity to better understand travel behavior as the explicit modeling of activities and the consequent tours and trips enable a more credible analysis of responses to policies and their effect on traffic and air quality. The theoretical framework of activity-based models starts with urban and land-use development as inputs; however, there is a need to translate this framework to analyze specific land-use policies. This paper discusses the advantages and potential of activity-based models for analyzing the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior. It suggests improvements that will extend the general framework to achieve a better understanding of travelers’ responses to various land-use policies and shows its advantages over tip-based models, which simply do not have such capabilities. The improved activity-based approach is illustrated through a case study based on the Portland activity-based model combined with a stated-preference residential choice model. A package of land-use policies— including improved land-use, school quality, safety, and transit service in the city center—is introduced, and its effect on household redistribution and regional travel is tested using this integrated framework. The results of this case study show that the effects of the land-use policies introduced had only marginal effects on regional travel.

Sources of growth and competitiveness of local tourist production systems: an application to Italy (1991–2001)

Abstract: Local development can assume many forms, depending on the environmental characteristics of places and the way they evolve historically. Tourist resorts are concentrated on space, forming a well-defined geography of local productive systems which show very different growth rates. The aim of this paper is to establish a geography of local tourist production systems in Italy, and to explore their sources of growth and competitiveness. Results suggest that higher levels of growth are not based on natural endowments but on localization economies, especially on the presence of all the phases of a “tourist filiere”, a chain of economic activities directly related to tourism production, in the local production system.

Telecommunications infrastructure and regional income convergence in China: panel data approaches

Abstract: The conditional convergence framework constitutes the theoretical basis for different dynamic panel data approaches. But models with different specifications or estimated by different methods may have very different results. This study empirically tests the results by applying different panel data approaches to the study of telecommunications infrastructure in regional economic growth across China. Specifically, the pattern of regional economic growth across 29 regions in China from 1986 to 2002 is examined. The results suggest the system GMM estimation is more likely to produce consistent and efficient estimates than OLS and fixed-effect estimation. Findings indicate a significant and positive relationship between telecommunications infrastructure and regional economic growth in China and the empirical results from different estimations suggest robust results for this particular assessment.

The integrated sprawl index: measuring the urban landscape in Israel

Abstract: Urban sprawl in Israel began two decades ago, but has yet to be empirically measured or characterized. Major processes that influenced sprawl in Israel were the rise in standard of living, consumer preference for low-density and single-family housing in the suburbs, and the arrival of nearly one million immigrants from the former USSR during the 1990s. All these processes led to a massive transformation of agricultural land into urban land-uses all over the country and provide some evidence that sprawl is taking place as a pattern of development. This study attempt to measure and analyze urban sprawl in Israel, based on a large sample of urban settlements. Higher sprawl rates were found to correlate significantly with higher population and land-consumption growth rates, which implies a higher consumer preference to reside in more sprawling patterns. Variables that are linked with sprawl in Western countries were usually found to be significant in Israel, as well; however, unlike other Western countries, urban sprawl in Israel is rather spatially dispersed, and not necessarily found on the edges of metropolitan areas.

Interstate spillovers of private capital and public spending

Abstract: The analysis estimates the economic returns on public spending by transportation and non-transportation functions vs. private capital, using a panel data set for 48 contiguous states from 1989 through 2002. These actual spending dollars are used as a more precise measure compared to apportioned state public capitals used in the existing literature. For each type of capital/spending, the interstate spillovers were constructed in such a way that different states are weighted by commodity flows across the states to reflect different degree of inter-state dependence. We find that when spending data rather than capital stock is used, all of the interstate spillover effects are negative and statistically significant, suggesting that infrastructure investment does not contribute to economic growth (at least not directly). Therefore, crowding out effects exist among states competing for both private and government funds, in particular if states are highly dependent on allocation of federal funds. These results confirm the finding that previously estimated positive coefficients reflect spurious correlation based on capital stocks and output.

Organisational motives and spatial effects in Internet adoption and intensity of use: evidence from French industrial firms

Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the reasons why firms use ICTs at varying rates, by making a distinction between the two stages of their diffusion: their adoption and the intensity of their use What are the differences between Internet adopters (in terms of their internal organization and external environment) that explain the intensity with which they use this technology? Furthermore, do these processes vary according to the type of area in which firms are located (urban vs rural)? A model of technological diffusion is constructed that merges two types of models: those that concentrate on epidemic effects and the so-called equilibrium models that consider the decision to adopt new technologies as a result of an economic calculation by firms To test this model, we use data drawn from a recent French national survey of 5,200 industrial firms (“ICT and E-commerce”, 2002) One striking result of this study is that we do not obtain a significant positive correlation between firm’s size and Internet intensity of use Moreover, though spatial disparities related to ICT adoption are no longer significant in France, they remain very important in the processes of ICT appropriation and use by firms The results also indicate that the determinants of the intensity of Internet use vary significantly according to the firms’ location: epidemics effects play an essential role in the case of urban the firms, while rank effects are essential in low density areas

Factors Influencing the Temporal Diffusion of Broadband Adoption: Evidence from Oklahoma

Abstract: This paper examines the shifting influence of household characteristics and telecommunications infrastructure on the residential broadband adoption decision for Oklahoma residents between 2003 and 2006. In particular, the spread of wired telecommunications infrastructure (namely cable Internet and Digital Subscriber Lines (DSL)) is examined, along with the effect that this diffusion has had on broadband access rates. The data indicates that the gap in broadband access rates between rural and urban areas has remained relatively constant over this period despite increased levels of cable and DSL throughout the state. In addition, an inter-temporal decomposition shows that the increasing levels of infrastructure are not the dominant cause of higher broadband rates over time. Instead, shifting returns to specific characteristics (namely income) are found to be the primary contributors.

Sequencing and scheduling highway network expansion using a discrete network design model

Abstract: The motive behind this paper is to produce an NDP model that prescribes the final shape of a transportation network and the sequence and schedule of facility construction during the planning span as well. The proposed bi-level NDP model fills the gap between existing NDP models and practitioners’ needs because, in practice, planners have to select investment projects on a year-by-year basis. Conversely, existing models suggest only the optimal network configuration for a planning horizon. A genetic algorithm and a simulated annealing algorithm are proposed along with an exhaustive search algorithm as solution algorithms. Testing these algorithms with an example problem revealed that the simulated annealing worked superiorly to the genetic algorithm. The paper also demonstrates that the model is applicable to a real world problem by showing that the computational time needed to solve the example problem is not prohibitively large.

On the role of distance for outward FDI

Abstract: This paper focuses on the estimation of three distance-related effects on outward FDI. (1) Distance harms vertical multinationals, since they engage in trade. (2) It makes non-trading multinationals better off than exporters. (3) This positive effect on horizontal FDI is expected to rise with bilateral parent and host market size. The use of panel data and related econometric methods is highly recommended to avoid parameter bias from endogenous, unobserved, time-invariant effects. A unified estimation approach to assess all three hypotheses then has to rely on instrumental variable techniques for generalized least-squares methods. In the empirical analysis of 1989-1999 bilateral US outward FDI stocks at the industry level, it is shown that testing and accounting for autocorrelation is extremely important for parameter inference. In sum, the paper lends strong support to the theory of horizontally organized multinationals as outlined in Markusen and Venables (J Int Econ 52(2):209–234).

Matching estimation, casino gambling and the quality of life

Abstract: Little consensus exists in the literature as to the impact of casino gambling on regional economic development. This paper uses a propensity score matching estimator to assess the bottom line impact of casino gambling on the welfare of local residents. It extends the literature in two important ways. First, the traditional matching estimation model is extended to consider a kernel weighting formula that corrects for correlation between the outcome error term and characteristics of the regressors used in generating the propensity scores. Second, by using the matching procedure to control for selection bias in the casino location decision, this paper generates improved estimates for the impact of casino gambling on key economic variables and on local quality of life. Casinos are found to have no statistically significant net impact on the quality of life in their host counties, though Native American casinos do generate some additional economic activity in the form of increased population, employment, and housing starts.

Regional business cycle integration along the US–Mexico border

Abstract: Because of the growing internationalization of the US economy, a literature has developed on the impacts of globalization on US industries and regions. In this paper we look at four MSAs that have a long history of integration with Mexico and test how their overall business cycles are connected to those of the broader economies that surround them. As globalization increases in the US, the lessons learned from these MSAs can be useful for cities trying to understand how globalization may impact them in the future. Results suggest that the border MSAs are significantly integrated with the broader economies that surround them but that the integration varies based on the structure of the local economy. Border MSAs that have large retail sectors that sell to Mexican nationals are more integrated with the Mexican economy, while El Paso, which has a close relationship with the maquiladora sector in Juarez, is more integrated with the US and Texas economies.

Influence of highway construction projects on economic development: an empirical assessment

Abstract: The evaluation of transportation projects has traditionally been made by assessing changes in travel time, vehicle operating cost, and safety. The broader, long-term effects on economic development (job, income and business growth) are a concern of transportation planners and decision makers, but have often been overlooked due to the lack of a reliable impact-estimation methodology and/or data. This paper presents a quantitative tool that can be used at the project-development phase to estimate the economic-development impacts of different types of highway construction projects. Using data from Indiana, we develop models that can be used to estimate the effects of geographic location, accessibility, and other factors on the economic-development impacts of highway construction projects. Our models can also be used as a basis for programming and ranking a wide variety of highway construction projects.

Subsidies and welfare maximization tradeoffs in bus transit systems

Abstract: Under a maximum welfare objective, a fixed route bus system and a flexible route bus system are optimized subject to various financial constraints. For each bus system, the decision variables including fare, headway, route spacing, and service zone area are optimally solved to analyze unconstrained, break-even and subsidy cases. Numerical results and sensitivity analysis are presented in the paper. From the numerical evaluation, it is shown that the effects of subsidies on welfare are quite different for a fixed route bus system versus a flexible route bus system. For the fixed route bus system, the optimal welfare curve is very flat over a wide range of subsidies. However, for the flexible route bus system, the break-even constraint causes a large loss in the social welfare. Thus, with the welfare maximization objective, the break-even policy or low transit subsidy policy may be preferable for the fixed route bus system, but not for the flexible route bus system. The results derived from this study can support effective decision-making on bus transit systems in areas that may experience significant shifts in residential density, as well as geographic or physical changes in their street networks.

Production and work in the American metropolis: a macroscopic approach

Abstract: In this paper, I pursue the idea that large and small metropolitan areas are subject to distinctively different technological, organizational, and employment dynamics. This idea is considered both in general terms, and, more specifically, in the light of the emerging cognitive-cultural economy in the United States Two main bodies of empirical evidence are invoked in a series of hypothesis-testing exercises. One of these is focused on 6-digit manufacturing sectors in metropolitan areas; here, the objective is to reveal by means of regression analysis the basic dimensions of locational sorting across the metropolitan hierarchy. The other revolves around detailed census occupational groupings and the different ways in which their functional relations to data, people, and things are reflected in their spatial dynamics. The evidence presented suggests that the competitive advantages of large metropolitan areas reside above all in forms of economic activity marked by high levels of operational instability and product differentiation as expressed, among other things, in labor-intensive technologies and discretionary labor processes. The competitive advantages of small metropolitan areas flow from a converse set of characteristics. It is also shown that the new cognitive-cultural economy of the United States is being ushered in via metropolitan areas at the top of the urban hierarchy.

Valuing acid mine drainage remediation in West Virginia: a hedonic modeling approach

Abstract: In this article, we use a spatial-econometric approach to estimate the willingness to pay for the cleanup of acid mine drainage-impaired waterways in the Cheat River Watershed of West Virginia. We derive economic values for housing relating to remediating the effects of acid mine drainage using 21 years of housing sales data, and use geographic information systems to link housing market sales data with stream water quality. The results indicate being located near an acid mine drainage-impaired stream has an implicit marginal cost of $4,783 on housing. If all the streams are restored in the Cheat River Watershed, those properties located near the restoration (within a 1/4 mile) would benefit by $1.7 million.

Toll roads and economic development: exploring effects on property values

Abstract: An increasing number of toll projects are being considered across the country, and questions are often raised about the impact of toll roads on the economy and economic development in the region. This paper examines the effects of toll roads in a major metro area. Toll roads in Dallas County, Texas, are examined for their impacts on property values, one indicator for economic development impacts. Particular emphasis is placed on the temporal and spatial nature of the impacts. The paper examines impacts of existing toll roads using residential transactions data spanning a period of 20 years and a combination of traditional and spatial econometric approaches.

Income convergence in the United States: a tale of migration and urbanization

Abstract: We use nonparametric distribution dynamics techniques to reassess the convergence of per capita personal income (PCPI) across U.S. states and across metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) portions of states for the period 1969–2005. The long-run distribution of PCPI is bimodal for both states and metro/nonmetro portions. Furthermore, the high-income mode of the distribution across metro and nonmetro portions corresponds to the single mode of the long-run distribution across metro portions only. These results (polarization or club-convergence) are reversed when weighting by population. The long-run distributions across people are consistent with convergence. Migration and urbanization are the forces behind convergence.

Factors conditioning the formation of European regional convergence clubs

Abstract: Recent findings have indicated the existence of European regional clubs. In the following paper, we examine factors conditioning the distribution of European regional GDPpc by estimating conditioned stochastic kernels, arguably the best method for whole distribution or partial conditionings. We also compute conditioned Markov chains for the conditioning factors detected and their sensitivity to changes in probability. Our results show that a country’s fiscal policies to reduce within country inequalities remain the key factor in escaping from backward clubs, together with the integration of women into the labour market. The average number of patents and low-tech manufacturing specialisation indexes are also considered key factors.

Cross-border transport infrastructure and aid policies

Abstract: We investigate resource allocation concerning the provision of cross- border transport infrastructure, which is used for trade of goods between two neighboring countries. Since the level of infrastructure is sub-optimal under the circumstances that two governments choose the levels of infrastructure independently, we focus on the role of foreign aid to improve the efficiency of infrastructure provision. In this paper, we examine the welfare effects of aid policies, and show that aid can make both countries better off, i.e., Pareto improvement. Furthermore, Pareto improvement is more likely if the stage of development in recipient country is very low or sufficiently high.

Regional economics in its 1950s: recent theoretical directions and future challenges

Abstract: Regional economics has just entered in its 1950s. It is a young discipline compared to other branches of the economy, yet much work has been done in this field. A vast and rich number of theoretical and methodological approaches exists nowadays to incorporate space into logical schemes, laws and models which regulate and interpret the formation of prices, demand, productive capacity, levels of output and development, growth rates, and the distribution of income in conditions of unequal regional endowments of resources. This contribution provides the state of the art in Regional Economics with the aim to highlight the scientific achievements obtained so far and the theoretical and methodological gaps which still need to be filled out. Aspects that run counter to general beliefs emerge by reading the original contributions of wellknown theoreticians, and will be presented. Future challenges will emerge from a critical approach to the milestones achieved so far.