Showing papers in "Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy in 2011"

Simulating Land-use Change in a Regional Planning Context

Abstract: Land-use simulation can provide important information to regional spatial planning. This paper introduces the application of a detailed land-use model in different phases of the development of a Regional Spatial Strategy for the Dutch province of Overijssel. After introducing the planning and modelling context it first discusses an exploratory study that used potential future land-use configurations according to trend-based scenarios and specific policy objectives. Part of this study focused on visualising potential spatial developments according to three different spatial policy ambitions related to: water management; safety and health; and compact urbanisation. These depictions of policy alternatives were used to help formulate the Regional Spatial Strategy. In the subsequent Strategic Environmental Assessment land-use simulations were used to help assess the potential sustainability impacts of the proposed new set of spatial policies in relation to the current spatial policies. Based on these subsequent model applications the merits of the applied modelling approach are discussed. In addition, we pay attention to several more general issues related to the simulation of land-use changes in support of regional spatial planning. These issues relate to the treatment of uncertainty, the confidence that can be placed in the potential impact of planning initiatives and the need for integrated data infrastructures.

Measuring and Assessing Urban Sprawl: What are the Remaining Options for Future Settlement Development in Switzerland for 2030?

Abstract: Transformation of land use in and around European cities is proceeding as fast as never before, and urban sprawl is a reality in Europe. This process is coming along with significant landscape changes that can even lead to the loss of landscape identity. Is it possible to find indications of which regions are prone to urban sprawl in order to curtail undesired future settlement developments in time? To answer this question we used settlement development scenarios for Switzerland, and analysed their spatial implications using a set of four metrics, which allow for comparing the degree of urban sprawl in different regions. Two aspects were explored: (1) by how much settlement development could potentially increase in Switzerland, and (2) the suitability of the metrics as indicators for characterizing and assessing the development of urban sprawl. The results show that overall in Switzerland the urban permeation and dispersion of settlement areas is likely to increase (in all scenarios), but to different degrees. However, the results differ very much between the various types of settlement and between the cantons, and even a decrease in urban dispersion is possible. In combination with scenarios of settlement growth, the metrics provide useful evidence on regional characteristics such as the overall pressure of settlement development and likely transformations of the respective settlement types that should be taken into account in spatial development concepts. There is a need for calibration of the indicators on a regional level to define specific thresholds to limit urban sprawl.

Poverty at the Local Level: National and Small Area Poverty Estimates by Family Type for Australia in 2006

Abstract: There is a substantial literature within Australia examining poverty rates for different family types at the national level. This study presents the first Australian estimates of poverty rates for different types of families at a local level. This paper builds upon the SpatialMSM/08B model, which fuses together data from the 2006 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing and the 2002–03 and 2003–04 Surveys of Income and Housing. We examine differences in rates of income poverty for lone persons, sole parents, couples and couples with children. The results show that people living by themselves and sole parents have the highest poverty rates. In addition, there are pronounced spatial differences in the poverty rates of people living in different family situations, although the highest poverty rates for all family types tend to be in Australia’s rural areas, with poverty clusters in most of the capital cities.

Internal and External Validation of Spatial Microsimulation Models: Small Area Estimates of Adult Obesity

Abstract: Spatial microsimulation models can be used to estimate previously unknown data at the micro-level, although validation of these models can be challenging. This paper seeks to describe an approach to validation of these models. Obesity data in adults were estimated at the small area level using a static, deterministic, spatial microsimulation model called SimObesity. This model utilised both Census 2001 data and the Health Survey for England for 2004–2006. Regression analysis was used to identify the covariates that were the strongest predictors of obesity and these were used as the model input variables. The model was calibrated using regression and equal variance t-tests. Two methods of external validation were undertaken; aggregating obesity data to a coarser geographical level at which obesity data was available, and secondly using small area level cancer data for tumour sites known to be correlated to obesity. The output obesity data were mapped and statistically significant hot (cold) spots of high (low) prevalence of obesity identified. Both internal and external validation showed low errors, suggesting this was a satisfactory simulation. Statistically significant hot and cold spots of (simulated) obesity prevalence existed, even after adjusting for age. This paper emphasises three steps to validation of spatial microsimulation models: 1. Accurate simulations require strong correlations between the input and output variables; 2. It is essential to internally validate the models; 3. Use all means possible to externally validate the model.

H.E.L.P: A GIS-based Health Exploratory AnaLysis Tool for Practitioners

Abstract: The last two decades have been characterized by a growing number of Geographical Information System (GIS) applications to the field of health science. From a decision-making and policy perspective, undeniable benefits of GIS include the assessment of health needs and delivery of services, and also the appropriate allocation of workforce and prevention resources. Despite these attractive attributes, the literature suggests that there has been limited GIS uptake among health care decision makers. This paper presents a GIS-based Health Exploratory and anaLysis tool for Practitioners (H.E.L.P.) for the analysis and visualization of space-time point events, applied to hospital patients. H.E.L.P. is viewed as a spatial decision support system which provides a set of powerful analytical tools integrating the computational capabilities of Matlab with the visualization and database functionalities of GIS. The system outputs improve the understanding of disease dynamics and provide resources for decision-makers in allocating appropriate staffing. As an example, H.E.L.P. is applied to a dataset of hospital patients in Cali, Colombia.

Explaining Spatial Homogamy. Compositional, Spatial and Regional Cultural Determinants of Regional Patterns of Spatial Homogamy in the Netherlands

Abstract: Spatial homogamy, or sharing a similarity in geographical origin, is an under-researched dimension in homogamy studies. In the Netherlands, people tend to choose spatially homogamous partners. Moreover, there is considerable regional variation in spatial homogamy, even when residential location and population density are controlled for. This study aims to explain the regional variation in spatial homogamy by means of a spatial regression. Three sets of explanations are taken into account: compositional effects, spatial determinants, and regional cultural differences. The data used consists of a unique geo-coded micro dataset on all new cohabiters in the Netherlands in 2004 (N=289,248), combined with other data from varying sources. In the spatial regression, the dependent variable is the standardized distance coefficient, based on the distance between partners before cohabitation, standardised for the average distance to other inhabitants. We find that especially educational, income and cultural differences contribute to the regional variation in spatial homogamy.

Measuring the Effects of a Land Value Tax on Land Development

Abstract: The objective of this research was to evaluate using land value tax as a potential policy tool to moderate sprawling development in Nashville, TN, the nation’s most sprawling metropolitan community with a population of one million or more. A land development model was used to evaluate the hypothesis that a land value tax encourages more development closer to areas of preexisting development than does the observed property tax scheme. For the median and lower and upper quartiles of empirical densities, results show that distances are shorter between areas of preexisting development and parcels predicted to be developed under a hypothetical land value tax policy than distances predicted under the observed tax scheme. This finding suggests that land value taxation could be used to design compact development strategies in Nashville, TN.

A Modelling Framework for Optimisation of Commodity Production by Minimising the Impact of Climate Change

Abstract: The agricultural sector is vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, and the frequency of extreme weather events. A modelling framework was developed and applied to identify issues, problems and opportunities arising in regional agricultural systems as a consequence of climate change. This integrated framework blends together land suitability analysis, uncertainty analysis and an optimisation approach to establish optimal agricultural land-use patterns on a regional scale for current and possible future climate scenarios. The framework can also be used to identify (i) regions under threat of productivity decline, and (ii) alternative crops and their locations that can cope better with changing climate. The methods and contents of the framework are presented by means of a case study developed in the South West Region of Victoria, Australia. The results can be used to assess land suitability in support of optimised crop allocations across a local region, and to underpin the development of a regional adaptation policy framework designed to reduce the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to the impacts of climate change.

Spatial Analysis of Forestry Related Disturbance on Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi): Implications for Policy and Management

Abstract: A landscape scale analysis of anthropogenic and natural disturbance indicates a significant negative relationship between the cumulative effects of forestry-related activities and the relative abundance of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi, cutthroat trout) in southeastern British Columbia. Cutthroat trout abundance within 6 Kootenay River headwater streams ranged from 0.00 to 0.0325 fish/m2. Univariate analyses within a blocked regression design resulted in statistically significant (p < 0.05) negative relationships between cutthroat trout abundance and road density, roads on erodible soils, roads within near-stream zones and two measures of logging to the stream bank. There was no statistically significant relationship between cutthroat trout abundance and equivalent clear-cut area (km2/km2). Roads over erodible soils within near-stream zones emerged as the most significant individual variable. A multivariate model to predict cutthroat trout abundance included roads within near stream zones and recent logging adjacent to streams. Evidence from this study indicates that logging of non-fish bearing perennial and ephemeral streams is likely a key factor that has negative downstream effects on cutthroat trout abundance. Contrary to many conventional forest management approaches, this study suggests that considering the spatial distribution of disturbance is at least as important as the total amount of disturbance and that disturbance types can accumulate to produce negative effects on cutthroat trout abundance. The forestry-fish relationships that result from this project provide guidance for forest policy and planning, fish habitat monitoring and cutthroat trout conservation management.

Explaining the Spatial Pattern of Suicide and Self-Harm Rates: A Case Study of East and South East England

Abstract: This paper examines the impacts on suicide and self harm rates of latent area constructs (deprivation, fragmentation and rurality), obtained via multivariate analysis of a larger set of census and non-census indicators. A case study involves male and female suicides and self-harm hospitalisations in 3242 small areas (known as wards) in East and South East England, including London. A Poisson regression model is applied to these data allowing for nonlinear effects of constructs and for interaction between them, as well as for Poisson extra-heterogeneity. In particular, the gain in model fit from predicting suicide and self-harm risk using the three constructs is assessed in terms of how far they account for spatially structured variation and for unstructured heterogeneity. Evidence for nonlinear effects and interaction between constructs is obtained, and implications for health resource allocation by regression evaluated.

Ground-truthing Geodemographics

Abstract: This paper describes how the UK’s National Classification of Output Areas was validated through the use of ground-truthing conducted by the authors. To get an independent view on the classification across a wide spread of places, a consultation exercise was devised inviting colleagues and contacts to comment on the classification for an area with which they are familiar. This proved to be a largely successful exercise. Not only did it broadly support the quality of the classification, but respondents also provided a wealth of comments and suggestions for current and future work.

Conflict Activity in the Neighborhoods of Quebec City (Canada), 1989–2000

Abstract: This research focuses on the analysis of the spatial distribution of 149 urban conflicts occurring between 1989 and 2000 in Quebec City, Canada. Specifically, the article explores the relationship between the spatial dynamics of the conflicts—in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity—and the following four dimensions of urban space: social composition; built environment; propensity to associate and to voice; and accessibility to various urban resources. The results of statistical analyses by means of a Kruskal–Wallis test and a Mann–Whitney test show, regardless of the dimension considered, to what extent certain areas are characterized by frequency, duration, or intensity of the conflict activity. Specifically, the results suggest that the degree of involvement of local people in a conflict varies very much depending on the nature of the social composition. Other findings show a relationship between areas with a high propensity to associate and to voice and a conflict activity that is more intense, more frequent, but not necessarily longer. These forms of social practices are thus testimony to the existence of know-how, i.e., a culture of conflict activity oriented towards efficiency.