Showing papers in "Demography in 2007"
TL;DR: A comprehensive literature review of published protocols for analysis of DBS samples is presented, and more detailed analysis of protocols for 45 analytes likely to be of particular relevance to population-level health research is provided.
Abstract: Logistical constraints associated with the collection and analysis of biological samples in community-based settings have been a significant impediment to integrative, multilevel biodemographic and biobehavioral research. However, recent methodological developments have overcome many of these constraints and have also expanded the options for incorporating biomarkers into population-based health research in international as well as domestic contexts. In particular, using dried blood spot (DBS) samples—drops of whole blood collected on filter paper from a simple finger prick— provides a minimally invasive method for collecting blood samples in nonclinical settings. After a brief discussion of biomarkers more generally, we review procedures for collecting, handling, and analyzing DBS samples. Advantages of using DBS samples—compared with venipuncture—include the relative ease and low cost of sample collection, transport, and storage. Disadvantages include requirements for assay development and validation as well as the relatively small volumes of sample. We present the results of a comprehensive literature review of published protocols for analysis of DBS samples, and we provide more detailed analysis of protocols for 45 analytes likely to be of particular relevance to population-level health research. Our objective is to provide investigators with the information they need to make informed decisions regarding the appropriateness of blood spot methods for their research interests.
627 citations
TL;DR: Detailed age-specific infant mortality rates by maternal race/ethnicity and nativity are calculated, showing that first-hour, first-day, and first-week mortality rates among infants born in the United States to Mexican immigrant women are about 10% lower than those experienced by infants of non-Hispanic, white U.S. women.
Abstract: Recent research suggests that the favorable mortality outcomes for the Mexican immigrant population in the United States may largely be attributable to selective out-migration among Mexican immigrants, resulting in artificially low recorded death rates for the Mexican-origin population. In this paper, we calculate detailed age-specific infant mortality rates by maternal race/ethnicity and nativity for two important reasons: (1) it is extremely unlikely that women of Mexican origin would migrate to Mexico with newborn babies, especially if the infants were only a few hours or a few days old; and (2) more than 50% of all infant deaths in the United States occur during the first week of life, when the chances of out-migration are very small. We use concatenated data from the U.S. linked birth and infant death cohort files from 1995 to 2000, which provides us with over 20 million births and more than 150,000 infant deaths to analyze. Our results clearly show that first-hour, first-day, and first-week mortality rates among infants born in the United States to Mexican immigrant women are about 10% lower than those experienced by infants of non-Hispanic, white U.S.-born women. It is extremely unlikely that such favorable rates are artificially caused by the out-migration of Mexican-origin women and infants, as we demonstrate with a simulation exercise. Further, infants born to U.S.-born Mexican American women exhibit rates of mortality that are statistically equal to those of non-Hispanic white women during the first weeks of life and fare considerably better than infants born to non-Hispanic black women, with whom they share similar socioeconomic profiles. These patterns are all consistent with the definition of the epidemiologic paradox as originally proposed by Markides and Coreil (1986).
326 citations
TL;DR: There is a substantial decrease in school participation following a parent death and a smaller drop before the death (presumably due to pre-death morbidity), suggesting that estimates based on cross-sectional data are biased toward zero.
Abstract: AIDS deaths could have a major impact on economic development by affecting the human capital accumulation of the next generation. We estimate the impact of parent death on primary school participation using an unusual five-year panel data set of over 20,000 Kenyan children. There is a substantial decrease in school participation following a parent death and a smaller drop before the death (presumably due to pre-death morbidity). Estimated impacts are smaller in specifications without individual fixed effects, suggesting that estimates based on cross-sectional data are biased toward zero. Effects are largest for children whose mothers died and, in a novel finding, for those with low baseline academic performance.
289 citations
TL;DR: In this article, panel data methods are used to investigate how deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States vary with macroeconomic conditions, showing that CHD mortality increases rapidly when the economy strengthens but returns to or near its baseline level within five years for most groups.
Abstract: Panel data methods are used to investigate how deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States vary with macroeconomic conditions. A one-percentage-point reduction in unemployment is predicted to raise CHD mortality by 0.75%, corresponding to almost 3,900 additional fatalities. The increase in relative risk is similar across age groups, implying that senior citizens account for most of the extra deaths. Direct evidence is obtained of a role for decreases in medical interventions treating coronary problems. CHD mortality increases rapidly when the economy strengthens but returns to or near its baseline level within five years for most groups.
276 citations
TL;DR: The results suggest that retrospective childhood health reports are of reasonable reliability as to warrant their judicious use in population research and demonstrate a large positive relationship between childhood and adult health.
Abstract: This study assesses retrospective childhood health reports and examines childhood health as a predictor of adult health. The results suggest that such reports are of reasonable reliability as to warrant their judicious use in population research. They also demonstrate a large positive relationship between childhood and adult health. Compared with excellent, very good, or good childhood health, poor childhood health is associated with more than three times greater odds of having poor adult self-rated health and twice the risk of a work-limiting disability or a chronic health condition. These associations are independent of childhood and current socioeconomic position and healthrelated risk behaviors.
239 citations
TL;DR: It is argued that just as demographers and population scientists were pioneers in the study of neighborhoods and health, they are uniquely poised to lead the field again, and diverse approaches with complementary strengths will help surmount the many analytic challenges to studying the dynamics of neighborhood and health.
Abstract: Over the past two decades, there has been an explosion of empirical research on neighborhoods and health. However, although the data and approaches owe much to the early contributions of demographers and population scientists, this debt is largely unrecognized. Likewise, challenges posed in the early literature remain largely unanswered. I argue that just as demographers and population scientists were pioneers in the study of neighborhoods and health, they are uniquely poised to lead the field again. Putting people into place means explaining behavior and outcomes in relation to a potentially changing local context. A more dynamic conceptualization is needed that fully incorporates human agency, integrates multiple dimensions of local social and spatial context, develops the necessary longitudinal data, and implements appropriate tools. Diverse approaches with complementary strengths will help surmount the many analytic challenges to studying the dynamics of neighborhoods and health, including agent-based microsimulation models.
222 citations
TL;DR: It is found that the stabilizing effects of income equality are more pronounced early in the marriage and that income equality also reduces the dissolution risk for same-sex couples.
Abstract: Several studies have shown that a wife's strong (socio)economic position is associated with an increase in the risk of divorce. Less is known about such effects for cohabiting relationships. Using a unique and large-scale sample of administrative records from The Netherlands, we analyze the link between couples' income dynamics and union dissolution for married and cohabiting unions over a 10-year period. We find negative effects of household income on separation and positive effects of the woman's relative income, in line with earlier studies. The shape of the effect of the woman's relative income, however, depends on the type of union. Movements away from income equality toward a male-dominant pattern tend to increase the dissolution risk for cohabiting couples, whereas they reduce the dissolution risk for married couples. Movements away from income equality toward a female-dominant pattern (reverse specialization) increase the dissolution risks for both marriage and cohabitation. The findings suggest that equality is more protective for cohabitation, whereas specialization is more protective for marriage, although only when it fits a traditional pattern. Finally, we find that the stabilizing effects of income equality are more pronounced early in the marriage and that income equality also reduces the dissolution risk for same-sex couples.
201 citations
TL;DR: This article investigates whether social interactions—and especially the extent to which social network partners perceive themselves to be at risk—exert causal influences on respondents’ risk perceptions and on one approach to prevention, spousal communication about the threat of AIDS to the couple and their children.
Abstract: Understanding the determinants of individuals’ perceptions of their risk of becoming infected with HIV and their perceptions of acceptable strategies of prevention is an essential step toward curtailing the spread of this disease. We focus in this article on learning and decision-making about AIDS in the context of high uncertainty about the disease and appropriate behavioral responses. We argue that social interactions are important for both. Using longitudinal survey data from rural Kenya and Malawi, we test this hypothesis. We investigate whether social interactions—and especially the extent to which social network partners perceive themselves to be at risk—exert causal influences on respondents’ risk perceptions and on one approach to prevention, spousal communication about the threat of AIDS to the couple and their children. The study explicitly allows for the possibility that important characteristics, such as unobserved preferences or community characteristics, determine not only the outcomes of interest but also the size and composition of networks. The most important empirical result is that social networks have significant and substantial effects on risk perceptions and the adoption of new behaviors even after we control for unobserved factors.
189 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that perceived opinions of parents are associated with the actual timing of leaving the parental home but that societal norms and friends’ norms concerning the time of leaving home are not, and the timing of leave home is also associatedwith the perceived costs and benefits of left home and with the perceived housing market situation.
Abstract: This article studies the association between social norms and the timing of leaving home. Although largely overlooked by most recent studies on leaving home, life-course theory suggests that age norms and age grading influence life-course decisions in general and leaving home in particular. We use Fishbein and Ajzen’s model of “reasoned behavior” to integrate this strand of research with the more individualistic view that dominates current thinking. Using data from a Dutch panel survey, we use a Cox regression model with a control for sample selection to estimate the association between perceived age norms and the timing of leaving home. We show that perceived opinions of parents are associated with the actual timing of leaving the parental home but that societal norms and friends’ norms concerning the timing of leaving home are not. In addition, the timing of leaving home is also associated with the perceived costs and benefits of leaving home and with the perceived housing market situation.
183 citations
TL;DR: Using Norwegian register data and a statistically defensible fixed-effects model, it is found that strong positive effects of day care availability on the transition to motherhood are found.
Abstract: Both sociological and economic theories posit that widely available, high-quality, and affordable child care should have pronatalist effects. Yet to date, the empirical evidence has not consistently supported this hypothesis. We argue that this previous empirical work has been plagued by the inability to control for endogenous placement of day care centers and the possibility that people migrate to take advantage of the availability of child care facilities. Using Norwegian register data and a statistically defensible fixed-effects model, we find strong positive effects of day care availability on the transition to motherhood.
172 citations
TL;DR: Examination of data from the first two waves of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study finds some evidence that child gender is associated with unmarried father involvement around the time of the child’s birth, but one year after birth, there is very little evidence thatChild gender is related to parents’ living arrangements or the amount of time or money fathers invest in their children.
Abstract: In this article, we use data from the first two waves of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine the effects of child gender on father involvement and to determine if gender effects differ by parents’ marital status. We examine several indicators of father involvement, including whether the father acknowledges “ownership” of the child, whether the parents live together when the child is one year old, and whether the father provides financial support when the child is one year old. We find some evidence that child gender is associated with unmarried father involvement around the time of the child’s birth: sons born to unmarried parents are more likely than daughters to receive the father’s surname, especially if the mother has no other children. However, one year after birth, we find very little evidence that child gender is related to parents’ living arrangements or the amount of time or money fathers invest in their children. In contrast, and consistent with previous research, fathers who are married when their child is born are more likely to live with a son than with a daughter one year after birth. This pattern supports an interpretation of child gender effects based on parental beliefs about the importance of fathers for the long-term development of sons.
TL;DR: Using the first (1995) and third (2001–2002) waves of the Add Health survey, women’s family transitions up to age 24 are examined, finding that the strictly ordered transitions of the 1950s are long gone and have been replaced by a variety of paths to adulthood.
Abstract: Using the first (1995) and third (2001–2002) waves of the Add Health survey, we examine women’s family transitions up to age 24. Only a third of all women marry, and a fifth of those marriages dissolve before age 24. Three out of eight women have a first birth, with a substantial majority of those births outside of marriage: 66% for whites, 96% for blacks, and 72% for Mexican Americans. Cohabitation is the predominant union form; 59% of women cohabit at least once by age 24. Most cohabitations are short lived, with approximately one in five resulting in a marriage. We summarize the family and relationship experience of women up to age 24 in terms of four categories, each accounting for roughly a quarter of all women. Category 1 has the women who remain single nonparents. Category 2 has the early marriers, women whose marriage is not preceded by a first birth. Category 3 has those who become single parents. Category 4 has the women who cohabit at least once, but who do not marry or have a birth by age 24. The strictly ordered transitions of the 1950s are long gone and have been replaced by a variety of paths to adulthood.
TL;DR: This paper found that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill and older adults have siblings who may be available to care for the elderly parent, and highlighted the potential importance of including information on nonresident family members when studying how parent illness and elder care requirements influence the labor supply decisions of adult children.
Abstract: Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This article addresses the question of how participation is affected by elderly parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor health of an elderly parent has less impact on the probability of employment as a migrant when an adult child has siblings who may be available to provide care. We also highlight the potential importance of including information on nonresident family members when studying how parent illness and elder care requirements influence the labor supply decisions of adult children.
TL;DR: Results suggest that multipartnered fertility is becoming more prevalent as younger cohorts transition to a new-partner birth more quickly and at a higher rate than older cohorts.
Abstract: Using the 2002 (Cycle 6) National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), which was the first NSFG to interview men, we document the prevalence and correlates of sequential parenthood with different partners (multipartnered fertility) among a representative sample of American men. Nearly 8% of American men aged 15–44 report having had children with more than one partner, with sharp differences by age, race/ethnicity, and income—over one-third of poor black men aged 35–44 report having had children with two or more mothers, and 16% report children with three or more mothers. Fathers of two or more children by multiple partners appear to be more disadvantaged than fathers with two or more children by the same partner. Multipartnered fertility is strongly related to prior birth characteristics; men not in a coresidential union at the preceding birth are more likely to have their next birth with a new partner, and controlling for prior-birth characteristics accounts for the elevated risk of Hispanics and blacks in baseline models. Results also suggest that multipartnered fertility is becoming more prevalent as younger cohorts transition to a new-partner birth more quickly and at a higher rate than older cohorts.
TL;DR: A strong, positive reciprocal relationship is found between the likelihood and frequency of father-child contact and thelihood and amount of informal support, with slightly stronger and more consistent effects of contact on payments than of payments on contact.
Abstract: I use three waves of panel data to examine the relationship between child support payments and fathers’ contact with their nonmarital children. I disaggregate support into fathers’ formal and informal payments and incorporate cross-lagged effects models to identify the direction of causality between payments and contact. After including the behavior from the prior wave (lagged term) and a rich set of family characteristics, I find a marginally significant effect of paying formally at Time 1 on the likelihood of contact at Time 2 but no effect of contact at Time 1 on formal payments at Time 2. In the first examination of the relationship between informal support and father-child contact, I find a strong, positive reciprocal relationship between the likelihood and frequency of father-child contact and the likelihood and amount of informal support, with slightly stronger and more consistent effects of contact on payments than of payments on contact.
TL;DR: It is concluded that heart and circulatory conditions as well as vision limitations played a major role in recent declines in late-life disability prevalence and that arthritis may also be a contributing factor.
Abstract: Using data from the 1997–2004 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), we examine the role of chronic conditions in recent declines in late-life disability prevalence. Building upon prior studies, we decompose disability declines into changes in the prevalence of chronic conditions and in the risk of disability given a condition. In doing so, we extend Kitigawa’s (1955) classical decomposition technique to take advantage of the annual data points in the NHIS. Then we use respondents’ reports of conditions causing their disability to repartition these traditional decomposition components. We find a general pattern of increasing prevalence of chronic conditions accompanied by declines in the percentage reporting disability among those with a given condition. We also find declines in heart and circulatory conditions, vision impairments, and possibly arthritis and increases in obesity as reported causes of disability. Based on decomposition analyses, we conclude that heart and circulatory conditions as well as vision limitations played a major role in recent declines in late-life disability prevalence and that arthritis may also be a contributing factor. We discuss these findings in light of improvements in treatments and changes in the environments of older adults.
TL;DR: Teens with experience practicing contraceptive consistency and females who previously have used hormonal contraceptive methods are better able to maintain consistency in subsequent relationships and relationship and partner characteristics are less important.
Abstract: By using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine how adolescent relationship characteristics, partner attributes, and sexual relationship histories are associated with contraceptive use and consistency, incorporating random effects to control for respondent-level unobserved heterogeneity. Analyses show that teens’ contraceptive use patterns vary across relationships. Teens with more-homogamous partners, with more-intimate relationships, and who communicate about contraception before sex have greater odds of contraceptive use and/or consistency. Teens in romantic relationships, and who are older when engaging in sex for the first time, have greater odds of ever using contraceptives but reduced odds of always using contraceptives. Teens continue habits from previous relationships: teens with experience practicing contraceptive consistency and females who previously have used hormonal contraceptive methods are better able to maintain consistency in subsequent relationships. Also, relationship and partner characteristics are less important for females who previously used hormonal methods.
TL;DR: The results suggest that the high levels of coresidence observed among recently arrived Mexican immigrants represent a departure from “traditional” household/family structures in Mexico and are related to the challenges associated with international migration.
Abstract: Prior research seeking to explain variation in extended family coresidence focused heavily on the potentially competing roles of cultural preferences and socioeconomic and demographic structural constraints We focus on challenges associated with international immigration as an additional factor driving variation across groups Using 2000 census data from Mexico and the United States, we compare the prevalence and age patterns of various types of extended family and non-kin living arrangements among Mexican-origin immigrants and nonimmigrants on both sides of the US-Mexico border Additionally, we use the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine the stability of extended family living arrangements among Mexican-origin immigrants and natives in the United States We find that newly arrived immigrants to the United States display unique patterns in the composition and stability of their households relative to nonimmigrants in both Mexico and the United States Recent immigrants are more likely to reside in an extended family or non-kin household, and among those living with relatives, recent immigrants are more likely to live with extended family from a similar generation (such as siblings and cousins) Further, these households experience high levels of turnover The results suggest that the high levels of coresidence observed among recently arrived Mexican immigrants represent a departure from “traditional” household/family structures in Mexico and are related to the challenges associated with international migration
TL;DR: Gender differences in the link between childhood SES and heart attack risk trajectories and the mechanisms by which early environments affect future disease risk are examined, finding that key risk factors for heart attack operate differently for men and women.
Abstract: A growing body of evidence shows that childhood socioeconomic status (SES) is predictive of disease risk in later life, with those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds more likely to experience poor adult-health outcomes. Most of these studies, however, are based on middle-aged male populations and pay insufficient attention to the pathways between childhood risks and specific adult disorders. This article examines gender differences in the link between childhood SES and heart attack risk trajectories and the mechanisms by which early environments affect future disease risk. By using methods that model both latent and path-specific influences, we identify heterogeneity in early life conditions and human, social, and health capital in adulthood that contribute to diverse heart attack risk trajectories between and among men and women as they age into their 60s and 70s. We find that key risk factors for heart attack operate differently for men and women. For men, childhood SES does not differentiate those at low, increasing, and high risk for heart attack. In contrast, women who grew up without a father and/or under adverse economic conditions are the most likely to experience elevated risk for heart attack, even after we adjust for the unequal distribution of working and living conditions, social relationships, access to health care, and adult lifestyle behaviors that influence health outcomes.
TL;DR: Levels and trends in recent patterns of racial segregation in America’s small towns are remarkably similar to patterns observed in larger metropolitan cities, reinforcing the need to broaden the spatial scale of segregation beyond its traditional focus on metropolitan cities or suburban places.
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to provide, for the first time, comparative estimates of racial residential segregation of blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan places in 1990 and 2000. Analyses are based on block data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. decennial censuses. The results reveal a singularly important and perhaps surprising central conclusion: levels and trends in recent patterns of racial segregation in America’s small towns are remarkably similar to patterns observed in larger metropolitan cities. Like their big-city counterparts, nonmetropolitan blacks are America’s most highly segregated racial minority—roughly 30% to 40% higher than the indices observed for Hispanics and Native Americans. Finally, baseline ecological models of spatial patterns of rural segregation reveal estimates that largely support the conclusions reached in previous metropolitan studies. Racial residential segregation in rural places increases with growing minority percentage shares and is typically lower in “new” places (as measured by growth in the housing stock), while racially selective annexation and the implied “racial threat” at the periphery exacerbate racial segregation in rural places. Our study reinforces the need to broaden the spatial scale of segregation beyond its traditional focus on metropolitan cities or suburban places, especially as America’s population shifts down the urban hierarchy into exurban places and small towns.
TL;DR: It is concluded that policies that enhance childhood health care and children’s socioeconomic wellbeing can have large and long-lasting benefits up to the oldest-old ages.
Abstract: Based on unique data from the largest-ever sample of the Chinese oldest-old aged 80 and older, our multivariate logistic regression analyses show that either receiving adequate medical service during sickness in childhood or never/rarely suffering from serious illness during childhood significantly reduces the risk of being ADL (activities of daily living) impaired, being cognitively impaired, and self-reporting poor health by 18%–33% at the oldest-old ages. Estimates of effects for five other indicators of childhood conditions are similarly positive but mostly not statistically significant. Multivariate survival analysis shows that better childhood socioeconomic conditions in general tend to reduce the four-year period mortality risk among the oldest-old. But after additional controls for 14 covariates are put into the model, the effects are not statistically significant, thus suggesting that most of the effects of childhood conditions on oldest-old mortality are indirect—at least to the point of affecting current health status at the oldest-old ages, which itself is strongly associated with mortality. While acknowledging limitations of the present analyses due to a lack of information on childhood illness, the oldest-olds’ recollection errors, and other data problems, we conclude, based on this and other studies, that policies that enhance childhood health care and children’s socioeconomic wellbeing can have large and long-lasting benefits up to the oldest-old ages.
TL;DR: This work applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities ofdaily living or activities of daily living.
Abstract: Medical advances and the growth of the elderly population have focused interest on trends in the health of the elderly. Three theories have been advanced to describe these trends: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium. We applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living or activities of daily living. We found increases in active life expectancy past age 65 and decreases in life expectancy with severe disability. These trends are consistent with elements of both the theory of compression of morbidity and the theory of dynamic equilibrium.
TL;DR: By increasing the returns to migration, social networks may provide a stimulus to continued emigration and underscore the potentially important role of social networks in raising Mexican migrants’ earnings, particularly among unauthorized migrants.
Abstract: We examine the impact of different types of social networks on the wages earned by unauthorized and legal Mexican migrants during their last U.S. trip. Familial ties raise unauthorized and legal migrants’ hourly wages by an average of 2.6% and 8%, respectively, and friendship ties increase their wages by 5.4% and 3.6%, correspondingly. Furthermore, family ties seem to comparatively favor legal migrants in terms of earnings, raising their wages by approximately 0.9% more than for similar unauthorized migrants. These results underscore the potentially important role of social networks in raising Mexican migrants’ earnings, particularly among unauthorized migrants. By increasing the returns to migration, social networks may provide a stimulus to continued emigration.
TL;DR: A new estimator of unwanted fertility is proposed—the “aggregate prospective estimator”—so-named because it depends on the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey, the fertility-desires item consistently shown to possess the highest validity and reliability.
Abstract: The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including DHS surveys conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet existing methods for estimating unwanted fertility are known to be defective, among other reasons because they rely on subjective data whose validity and reliability are questionable. In this article, we propose a new estimator of unwanted fertility—the “aggregate prospective estimator”—so-named because it depends on the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey, the fertility-desires item consistently shown to possess the highest validity and reliability. Under reasonable assumptions, the aggregate prospective estimator produces less biased estimates of unwanted fertility than the most widely used existing methods. The new estimator has the limitation of generating only aggregate-level estimates, but such estimates are the primary data for policy formulation and program evaluation. The new estimator is presented in this article, along with an evaluation of its underlying assumptions and its sensitivity to several sources of error. In an illustrative application to recent DHS data from six countries, the new estimator yields substantially higher estimates of unwanted fertility than existing methods in all six countries.
TL;DR: Estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately reveals that being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.
Abstract: How marital status interacts with men’s earnings is an important analytic and policy issue, especially in the context of debates in the United States over programs that encourage healthy marriage. This paper generates new findings about the earnings-marriage relationship by estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates. The estimates are based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel data, covering 23 years of marital and labor market outcomes, and control for unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate marriage effects on hours worked (our proxy for work effort) and on wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately. The estimates reveal that entering marriage raises hours worked quickly and substantially but that marriage’s effect on wage rates takes place more slowly while men continue in marriage. Together, the stimulus to hours worked and wage rates generates an 18%–19% increase in earnings, with about one-third to one-half of the marriage earnings premium attributable to higher work effort. At the same time, higher wage rates and hours worked encourage men to marry and to stay married. Thus, being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.
TL;DR: Evidence is presented that patterns of self-selection in immigration to Israel and the United States—on both measured and unmeasured productivity-related traits—is the main reason for these results.
Abstract: Drawing on U.S. decennial census data and on Israeli census and longitudinal data, we compare the educational levels and earnings assimilation of Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU) in the United States and Israel during 1968–2000. Because the doors to both countries were practically open to FSU immigrants between 1968 and 1989, when FSU immigrants were entitled to refugee visas in the United States, the comparison can be viewed as a natural experiment in immigrants’ destination choices. The results suggest that FSU immigrants to the United States are of significantly higher educational level and experience significantly faster rates of earnings assimilation in their new destination than their counterparts who immigrated to Israel. We present evidence that patterns of self-selection in immigration to Israel and the United States—on both measured and unmeasured productivity-related traits—is the main reason for these results. When the immigration regulations in the United States changed in 1989, and FSU Jewish immigrants to the United States had to rely on family reunification for obtaining immigrant visas, the adverse effects of the policy change on the type of FSU immigrants coming to the United States were minor and short-lived. As early as 1992, the gaps in the educational levels between FSU immigrants coming to Israel and to the United States returned to their pre-1989 levels, and the differences in earnings assimilation of post-1989 immigrants in the United States and Israel are similar to the differences detected in the 1980s.
TL;DR: Results indicate partial support for Duleep and Regets’ Immigrant Human Capital Investment model, indicating an inverse relationship between initial earnings and earnings growth and showing some evidence of the expected interaction between skill transferability and skill level when predicting human capital investment decisions.
Abstract: New Immigrant Survey-Pilot data are used to address the long-standing debate over whether immigrants to the United States assimilate economically. Using panel data and an individual fixed-effect specification, I find evidence indicating rapid economic assimilation, on the order of an average increase in earnings of 12%–13% during the 12-month survey period. Results indicate partial support for Duleep and Regets’ Immigrant Human Capital Investment (IHCI) model, indicating an inverse relationship between initial earnings and earnings growth and showing some evidence of the expected interaction between skill transferability and skill level when predicting human capital investment decisions. Having more years of education, English proficiency, and lower earnings at the baseline are associated with a higher probability of enrolling in formal school in the United States. Overall, findings suggest substantial economic integration within the first year after establishing permanent residency.
TL;DR: This article presents the first quantitative evidence to date that attests to a one-third decline of fertility during this regime, followed by a substantial “baby boom” after the fall of the KR, and illustrates the potential influence of mortality on fertility.
Abstract: The study of mortality crises provides an unusual and valuable perspective on the relationship between mortality and fertility changes, a relationship that has puzzled demographers for decades. In this article, we combine nationally representative survey and demographic-surveillance system data to study fertility trends around the time of the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime, under which 25% of the Cambodian population died. We present the first quantitative evidence to date that attests to a one-third decline of fertility during this regime, followed by a substantial “baby boom” after the fall of the KR. Further analyses reveal that the fertility rebound was produced not only by a two-year marriage bubble but also by a surge in marital fertility that remained for nearly a decade above its precrisis level. Our results illustrate the potential influence of mortality on fertility, which may be more difficult to identify for more gradual mortality declines. To the extent that until recently, Cambodian fertility appears to fit natural fertility patterns, our findings also reinforce recent qualifications about the meaning of this core paradigm of demographic analysis
TL;DR: This paper examined post-immigration investments in education among four immigrant groups in the Netherlands and found that educational investments are stronger among immigrants with higher premigration education, immigrants from former colonies, immigrants who migrated for family reasons, and immigrants who arrived in periods of high unemployment.
Abstract: We use a unique data source to examine postimmigration investments in education among four immigrant groups in the Netherlands. We derive hypotheses from the Immigrant Human Capital Investment model (IHCI), which argues that immigrants’ investments are an outcome of settlement intentions, skill transferability, and opportunity costs. The multinomial and ordered logistic regression analyses show that educational investments are stronger among immigrants with higher premigration education, immigrants from former colonies, immigrants who migrated for family reasons, and immigrants who arrived in periods of high unemployment. These ndings generally support the IHCI model.
TL;DR: A political model of human ecology was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models, suggesting to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.
Abstract: This study examines casualties from tornadoes in the United States between the years 1998 and 2000. A political model of human ecology (POET) was used to explore how the environment, technology, and social inequality influence rates of fatalities and injuries in two models. Data were drawn from four sources: John Hart’s Severe Plot v2.0, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Verification data, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watch data, and tract-level census data. Negative binomial regression was used to analyze the causes of tornado fatalities and injuries. Independent variables (following POET) are classified in the following manner: population, organization, environment, and technology. Rural population, population density, and household size correspond to population; racial minorities and deprivation represent social organization; tornado area represents environment; and tornado watches and warnings, as well as mobile homes, correspond to technology. Findings suggest a strong relationship between the size of a tornado path and both fatalities and injuries, whereas other measures related to technology, population, and organization produce significant yet mixed results. Census tracts having larger populations of rural residents was, of the nonenvironmental factors, the most conclusive regarding its effects across the two models. The outcomes of analysis, although not entirely supportive of the model presented in this study, suggest to some degree that demographic and social factors play a role in vulnerability to tornadoes.