Showing papers in "Diversity and Distributions in 2007"

Riparian vegetation: Degradation, alien plant invasions, and restoration prospects

Abstract: Rivers are conduits for materials and energy; this, the frequent and intense disturbances that these systems experience, and their narrow, linear nature, create problems for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of increasing human influence. In most parts of the world, riparian zones are highly modified. Changes caused by alien plants — or environmental changes that facilitate shifts in dominance creating novel ecosystems — are often important agents of perturbation in these systems. Many restoration projects are underway. Objective frameworks based on an understanding of biogeographical processes at different spatial scales (reach, segment, catchment), the specific relationships between invasive plants and resilience and ecosystem functioning, and realistic endpoints are needed to guide sustainable restoration initiatives. This paper examines the biogeography and the determinants of composition and structure of riparian vegetation in temperate and subtropical regions and conceptualizes the components of resilience in these systems. We consider changes to structure and functioning caused by, or associated with, alien plant invasions, in particular those that lead to breached abiotic- or biotic thresholds. These pose challenges when formulating restoration programmes. Pervasive and escalating human-mediated changes to multiple factors and at a range of scales in riparian environments demand innovative and pragmatic approaches to restoration. The application of a new framework accommodating such complexity is demonstrated with reference to a hypothetical riparian ecosystem under three scenarios: (1) system unaffected by invasive plants; (2) system initially uninvaded, but with flood-generated incursion of alien plants and escalating invasion-driven alteration; and (3) system affected by both invasions and engineering interventions. The scheme has been used to derive a decision-making framework for restoring riparian zones in South Africa and could guide similar initiatives in other parts of the world.

Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment

Abstract: Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) is a statistical technique for analysing and predicting spatial patterns of turnover in community composition (beta diversity) across large regions. The approach is an extension of matrix regression, designed specifically to accommodate two types of nonlinearity commonly encountered in large-scaled ecological data sets: (1) the curvilinear relationship between increasing ecological distance, and observed compositional dissimilarity, between sites; and (2) the variation in the rate of compositional turnover at different positions along environmental gradients. GDM can be further adapted to accommodate special types of biological and environmental data including, for example, information on phylogenetic relationships between species and information on barriers to dispersal between geographical locations. The approach can be applied to a wide range of assessment activities including visualization of spatial patterns in community composition, constrained environmental classification, distributional modelling of species or community types, survey gap analysis, conservation assessment, and climate-change impact assessment.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Abstract: Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

A comparative evaluation of presence-only methods for modelling species distribution

Abstract: In spite of increasing application of presence-only models in ecology and conservation and the growing number of such models, little is known about the relative performance of different modelling methods, and some of the leading models (e.g. GARP and ENFA) have never been compared with one another. Here we compare the performance of six presence-only models that have been selected to represent an increasing level of model complexity [BIOCLIM, HABITAT, Mahalanobis distance (MD), DOMAIN, ENFA, and GARP] using data on the distribution of 42 species of land snails, nesting birds, and insectivorous bats in Israel. The models were calibrated using data from museum collections and observation databases, and their predictions were evaluated using Cohen's Kappa based on field data collected in a standardized sampling design covering most parts of Israel. Predictive accuracy varied between modelling methods with GARP and MD showing the highest accuracy, BIOCLIM and ENFA showing the lowest accuracy, and HABITAT and DOMAIN showing intermediate accuracy levels. Yet, differences between the various models were relatively small except for GARP and MD that were significantly more accurate than BIOCLIM and ENFA. In spite of large differences among species in prevalence and niche width, neither prevalence nor niche width interacted with the modelling method in determining predictive accuracy. However, species with relatively narrow niches were modelled more accurately than species with wider niches. Differences among species in predictive accuracy were highly consistent over all modelling methods, indicating the need for a better understanding of the ecological and geographical factors that influence the performance of species distribution models.

Prediction and validation of the potential global distribution of a problematic alien invasive species — the American bullfrog

Abstract: Predicting the probability of successful establishment and invasion of alien species at global scale, by matching climatic and land use data, is a priority for the risk assessment. Both large- and local-scale factors contribute to the outcome of invasions, and should be integrated to improve the predictions. At global scale, we used climatic and land use layers to evaluate the habitat suitability for the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana, a major invasive species that is among the causes of amphibian decline. Environmental models were built by using Maxent, a machine learning method. Then, we integrated global data with information on richness of native communities and hunting pressure collected at the local scale. Global-scale data allowed us to delineate the areas with the highest suitability for this species. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invasiveness observed for bullfrog populations historically introduced in Europe, but did not explain a large portion of variability in invasion success. The integration of data at the global and local scales greatly improved the performance of models, and explained > 57% of the variance in introduction success: bullfrogs were more invasive in areas with high suitability and low hunting pressure over frogs. Our study identified the climatic factors entailing the risk of invasion by bullfrogs, and stresses the importance of the integration of biotic and abiotic data collected at different spatial scales, to evaluate the areas where monitoring and management efforts need to be focused.

Sandy beaches at the brink

Abstract: Sandy beaches line most of the world’s oceans and are highly valued by society: more people use sandy beaches than any other type of shore. While the economic and social values of beaches are generally regarded as paramount, sandy shores also have special ecological features and contain a distinctive biodiversity that is generally not recognized. These unique ecosystems are facing escalating anthropogenic pressures, chiefly from rapacious coastal development, direct human uses — mainly associated with recreation — and rising sea levels. Beaches are increasingly becoming trapped in a ‘coastal squeeze’ between burgeoning human populations from the land and the effects of global climate change from the sea. Society’s interventions (e.g. shoreline armouring, beach nourishment) to combat changes in beach environments, such as erosion and shoreline retreat, can result in severe ecological impacts and loss of biodiversity at local scales, but are predicted also to have cumulative large-scale consequences worldwide. Because of the scale of this problem, the continued existence of beaches as functional ecosystems is likely to depend on direct conservation efforts. Conservation, in turn, will have to increasingly draw on a consolidated body of ecological theory for these ecosystems. Although this body of theory has yet to be fully developed, we identify here a number of critical research directions that are required to progress coastal management and conservation of sandy beach ecosystems.

The application of predictive modelling of species distribution to biodiversity conservation

Abstract: Predictive modelling of species geographical distributions isa thriving ecological and biogeographical discipline. Majoradvances in its conceptual foundation and applications havetaken place recently, as well as the delineation of the outstandingchallenges still to be met (Araujo & Guisan, 2006; Guisan

Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records using multiresponse models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines

Abstract: Current circumstances - that the majority of species distribution records exist as presence-only data (e.g. from museums and herbaria), and that there is an established need for predictions of species distributions - mean that scientists and conservation managers seek to develop robust methods for using these data. Such methods must, in particular, accommodate the difficulties caused by lack of reliable information about sites where species are absent. Here we test two approaches for overcoming these difficulties, analysing a range of data sets using the technique of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). MARS is closely related to regression techniques such as generalized additive models (GAMs) that are commonly and successfully used in modelling species distributions, but has particular advantages in its analytical speed and the ease of transfer of analysis results to other computational environments such as a Geographic Information System. MARS also has the advantage that it can model multiple responses, meaning that it can combine information from a set of species to determine the dominant environmental drivers of variation in species composition. We use data from 226 species from six regions of the world, and demonstrate the use of MARS for distribution modelling using presence-only data. We test whether (1) the type of data used to represent absence or background and (2) the signal from multiple species affect predictive performance, by evaluating predictions at completely independent sites where genuine presence-absence data were recorded. Models developed with absences inferred from the total set of presence-only sites for a biological group, and using simultaneous analysis of multiple species to inform the choice of predictor variables, performed better than models in which species were analysed singly, or in which pseudo-absences were drawn randomly from the study area. The methods are fast, relatively simple to understand, and useful for situations where data are limited. A tutorial is included.

Residence time and potential range: Crucial considerations in modelling plant invasions

Abstract: A prime aim of invasion biology is to predict which species will become invasive, but retrospective analyses have so far failed to develop robust generalizations. This is because many biological, environmental, and anthropogenic factors interact to determine the distribution of invasive species. However, in this paper we also argue that many analyses of invasiveness have been flawed by not considering several fundamental issues: (1) the range size of an invasive species depends on how much time it has had to spread (its residence time); (2) the range size and spread rate are mediated by the total extent of suitable (i.e. potentially invasible) habitat; and (3) the range size and spread rate depend on the frequency and intensity of introductions (propagule pressure), the position of founder populations in relation to the potential range, and the spatial distribution of the potential range. We explored these considerations using a large set of invasive alien plant species in South Africa for which accurate distribution data and other relevant information were available. Species introduced earlier and those with larger potential ranges had larger current range sizes, but we found no significant effect of the spatial distribution of potential ranges on current range sizes, and data on propagule pressure were largely unavailable. However, crucially, we showed that: (1) including residence time and potential range always significantly increases the explanatory power of the models; and (2) residence time and potential range can affect which factors emerge as significant determinants of invasiveness. Therefore, analyses not including potential range and residence time can come to misleading conclusions. When these factors were taken into account, we found that nitrogen-fixing plants and plants invading arid regions have spread faster than other species, but these results were phylogenetically constrained. We also show that, when analysed in the context of residence time and potential range, variation in range size among invasive species is implicitly due to variation in spread rates, and, that by explicitly assuming a particular model of spread, it is possible to estimate changes in the rates of plant invasions through time. We believe that invasion biology can develop generalizations that are useful for management, but only in the context of a suitable null model.

Modelling ecological niches from low numbers of occurrences: assessment of the conservation status of poorly known viverrids (Mammalia, Carnivora) across two continents

Abstract: The conservation of poorly known species is difficult because of incomplete knowledge on their biology and distribution. We studied the contribution of two ecological niche modelling tools, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (Maxent), in assessing potential ranges and distributional connectivity among 12 of the least known African and Asian viverrids. The level of agreement between GARP and Maxent predictions was low when < 15 occurrences were available, probably indicating a minimum number below that necessary to obtain models with good predictive power. Unexpectedly, our results suggested that Maxent extrapolated more than GARP in the context of small sample sizes. Predictions were overlapped with current land use and location of protected areas to estimate the conservation status of each species. Our analyses yielded range predictions generally contradicting with extents of occurrence established by the IUCN. We evidenced a high level of disturbance within predicted distributions in West and East Africa, Sumatra, and South-East Asia, and identified within West African degraded lowlands four relatively preserved areas that might be of prime importance for the conservation of rainforest taxa. Knowing whether these species of viverrids may survive in degraded or alternative habitats is of crucial importance for further conservation planning. The level of coverage of species suitable ranges by existing and proposed IUCN reserves was low, and we recommend that the total surface of protected areas be substantially increased on both continents.

A century of the ornamental plant trade and its impact on invasion success.

Abstract: We identify a significant relationship between domestic market-based propagule pressure, as measured both in presence in the British horticultural market and in seed prices of ornamental plant species, with success in invasion. We employ a multispecies temporal approach and use a Generalized Estimation Equation model comparing ornamental non-native species introduced into Britain which started to invade with species introduced but not known outside cultivation. Historical nursery catalogues gave information on the availability and prices of seeds of 506 ornamental species in the British horticultural market every 20 years from 1885 to 1985. Higher market frequency and cheap prices of seeds were more significant and had a greater impact on the invading probability 20 years later than at the date of listing in a nursery catalogue. Our results suggest that national economic factors are an important part of the explanation for the invasiveness of ornamental plant species, and hence for the development of potential solutions.

Pollution reduces native diversity and increases invader dominance in marine hard-substrate communities

Abstract: Anthropogenic disturbance is considered a risk factor in the establishment of non-indigenous species (NIS); however, few studies have investigated the role of anthropogenic disturbance in facilitating the establishment and spread of NIS in marine environments. A baseline survey of native and NIS was undertaken in conjunction with a manipulative experiment to determine the effect that heavy metal pollution had on the diversity and invasibility of marine hard-substrate assemblages. The study was repeated at two sites in each of two harbours in New South Wales, Australia. The survey sampled a total of 47 sessile invertebrate taxa, of which 15 (32%) were identified as native, 19 (40%) as NIS, and 13 (28%) as cryptogenic. Increasing pollution exposure decreased native species diversity at all study sites by between 33% and 50%. In contrast, there was no significant change in the numbers of NIS. Percentage cover was used as a measure of spatial dominance, with increased pollution exposure leading to increased NIS dominance across all sites. At three of the four study sites, assemblages that had previously been dominated by natives changed to become either extensively dominated by NIS or equally occupied by native and NIS alike. No single native or NIS was repeatedly responsible for the observed changes in native species diversity or NIS dominance at all sites. Rather, the observed effects of pollution were driven by a diverse range of taxa and species. These findings have important implications for both the way we assess pollution impacts, and for the management of NIS. When monitoring the response of assemblages to pollution, it is not sufficient to simply assess changes in community diversity. Rather, it is important to distinguish native from NIS components since both are expected to respond differently. In order to successfully manage current NIS, we first need to address levels of pollution within recipient systems in an effort to bolster the resilience of native communities to invasion.

Rivers in peril inside and outside protected areas: a systematic approach to conservation assessment of river ecosystems

Abstract: This paper establishes a framework within which a rapid and pragmatic assessment of river ecosystems can be undertaken at a broad, subcontinental scale, highlighting some implications for achieving conservation of river biodiversity in water-limited countries. The status of river ecosystems associated with main rivers in South Africa was assessed based on the extent to which each ecosystem had been altered from its natural condition. This requires consistent data on river integrity for the entire country, which was only available for main rivers; tributaries were thus excluded from the analyses. The state of main river ecosystems in South Africa is dire: 84% of the ecosystems are threatened, with a disturbing 54% critically endangered, 18% endangered, and 12% vulnerable. Protection levels were measured as the proportion of conservation target achieved within protected areas, where the conservation target was set as 20% of the total length of each river ecosystem. Sixteen of the 112 main river ecosystems are moderately to well represented within protected areas; the majority of the ecosystems have very low levels of representation, or are not represented at all within protected areas. Only 50% of rivers within protected areas are intact, but this is a higher proportion compared to rivers outside (28%), providing some of the first quantitative data on the positive role protected areas can play in conserving river ecosystems. This is also the first assessment of river ecosystems in South Africa to apply a similar approach to parallel assessments of terrestrial, marine, and estuarine ecosystems, and it revealed that main river ecosystems are in a critical state, far worse than terrestrial ecosystems. Ecosystem status is likely to differ with the inclusion of tributaries, since options may well exist for conserving critically endangered ecosystems in intact tributaries, which are generally less regulated than main rivers. This study highlights the importance of healthy tributaries for achieving river conservation targets, and the need for managing main rivers as conduits across the landscape to support ecological processes that depend on connectivity. We also highlight the need for a paradigm shift in the way protected areas are designated, as well as the need for integrated river basin management plans to include explicit conservation visions, targets, and strategies to ensure the conservation of freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide.

A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags

Abstract: While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long-lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a ‘fingerprint’ of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species’ tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species’ migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma ’s response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.

Avian assemblage structure and domestic cat densities in urban environments

Abstract: While there is intense debate regarding the impact of domestic cat populations on wildlife, its resolution is hindered by the lack of quite basic information. Domestic cats are generalist and obligate predators that receive supplementary food, and their population density reflects that of humans more than the density of their prey. In such a predator-prey system there is the potential for cat populations to have negative impacts on avian assemblages, which may be indicated by negative correlations between cat density and avian species richness and density. Here we report on the nature of such correlations across urban areas in Britain both for groups of species classified regarding their vulnerability to cat predation and individual species. Taking the availability of green space into account, we find negative relationships between cat densities and the number of bird species breeding in urban 1 km x 1 km squares. These relationships are particularly strong among groups of species that are vulnerable to cat predation. We find positive correlations between cat and avian densities; these have low explanatory power and shallow slopes among the species groups that are particularly vulnerable to cat predation. Evidence that the densities of individual species that are vulnerable to cat predation are negatively correlated with cat densities is equivocal, with at least half the species showing no marked pattern, and the remainder exhibiting contrasting patterns. Our results appear not to be confounded by the density of nest-predating corvids (carrion crow, magpie, and jay), as the density of these species was not strongly negatively correlated with avian species richness or density. The general lack of marked negative correlations between cat and avian densities at our focal spatial scale may be a consequence of consistently high cat densities in our study areas (minimum density is 132 cats per square kilometre), and thus uniformly high impacts of cat populations on urban avian assemblages.

The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is non‐randomly distributed across amphibian breeding habitats

Abstract: The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated as the causative agent of mass mortalities, population declines, and the extinctions of stream-breeding amphibian species worldwide. While the factors that limit the distribution and abundance of B. dendrobatidis across large geographical regions are fairly well understood, little is known about the distribution of the fungus within localized areas such as individual catchments. The accurate identification of amphibian populations likely to be exposed to the fungus is urgently required for effective disease management. We conducted disease surveys of frogs representing five ecological guilds in south-east Queensland, Australia, and hypothesized that if B. dendrobatidis were responsible for the disappearance of stream-breeding amphibian populations, infection prevalence and intensity would be greatest in frogs breeding in permanent, flowing water. Overall, 30.3% of the 519 frogs we sampled were infected with B. dendrobatidis. However, infections were not evenly distributed across the ecological guilds, being almost completely restricted to frogs breeding at permanent waterbodies. Of these, stream breeders were significantly more likely to be infected than were pond breeders, though the intensity of frogs' infections did not differ significantly between the two guilds. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis was detected on only one of the 117 frogs that were found at ephemeral ponds, ephemeral streams, or terrestrial sites. These findings provide strong support for the hypothesis that B. dendrobatidis was responsible for many of the unexplained disappearances of stream-breeding amphibian populations in recent decades, and will enable wildlife managers to more accurately focus conservation efforts on those species at highest risk of disease-related decline.

Predicting mountain plant richness and rarity from space using satellite-derived vegetation indices

Abstract: Can species richness and rarity be predicted from space? If satellite-derived vegetation indices can provide us with accurate predictions of richness and rarity in an area, they can serve as an excellent tool in diversity and conservation research, especially in inaccessible areas. The increasing availability of high-resolution satellite images is enabling us to study this question more carefully. We sampled plant richness and rarity in 34 quadrats (1000 m 2 ) along an elevation gradient between 300 and 2200 m focusing on Mount Hermon as a case study. We then used 10 Landsat, Aster, and QuickBird satellite images ranging over several seasons, going up to very high resolutions, to examine the relationship between plant richness, rarity, and vegetation indices calculated from the images. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), one of the most commonly used vegetation indexes, which is strongly correlated to primary production both globally and locally (in more seasonal and in drier and/or colder environments that have wide ranges of NDVI values). All images showed a positive significant correlation between NDVI and both plant species richness and percentage tree cover (with R 2 as high as 0.87 between NDVI and total plant richness and 0.89 for annual plant richness). The high resolution images enabled us to examine spatial heterogeneity in NDVI within our quadrats. Plant richness was significantly correlated with the standard deviation of NDVI values (but not with their coefficient of variation) within quadrats and between images. Contrary to richness, relative range size rarity was negatively correlated with NDVI in all images, this result being significant in most cases. Thus, given that they are validated by fieldwork, satellite-derived indices can shed light on richness and even rarity patterns in mountains, many of which are important biodiversity centres.

Impacts of Dreissena invasions on benthic macroinvertebrate communities: a meta-analysis

Abstract: Dreissenid mussels (the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha and the quagga mussel Dreissena bugensis) have invaded lakes and rivers throughout North America and Europe, where they have been linked to dramatic changes in benthic invertebrate community diversity and abundance. Through a meta-analysis of published data from 47 sites, we developed statistical models of Dreissena impact on benthic macroinvertebrates across a broad range of habitats and environmental conditions. The introduction of Dreissena was generally associated with increased benthic macroinvertebrate density and taxonomic richness, and with decreased community evenness (of taxa excluding Dreissena). However, the strength of these effects varied with sediment particle size across sites. The effects of Dreissena differed among taxonomic and functional groups of macroinvertebrates, with positive effects on the densities of scrapers and predators, particularly leeches (Hirudinea), flatworms (Turbellaria), and mayflies (Ephemeroptera). Gastropod densities increased in the presence of Dreissena, but large-bodied snail taxa tended to decline. Dreissena was associated with declines in the densities sphaeriid clams and other large filter-feeding taxa, as well as burrowing amphipods (Diporeia spp.), but had strong positive effects on gammarid amphipods. These patterns are robust to variation in the methodology of primary studies. The effects of Dreissena are remarkably concordant with those of ecologically similar species, suggesting universality in the interactions between introduced byssally attached mussels and other macroinvertebrates.

Non-stationarity and local approaches to modelling the distributions of wildlife

Abstract: Despite a growing interest in species distribution modelling, relatively little attention has been paid to spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity. Both spatial autocorrelation (the tendency for adjacent locations to be more similar than distant ones) and non-stationarity (the variation in modelled relationships over space) are likely to be common properties of ecological systems. This paper focuses on non-stationarity and uses two local techniques, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and varying coefficient modelling (VCM), to assess its impact on model predictions. We extend two published studies, one on the presence–absence of calandra larks in Spain and the other on bird species richness in Britain, to compare GWR and VCM with the more usual global generalized linear modelling (GLM) and generalized additive modelling (GAM). For the calandra lark data, GWR and VCM produced better-fitting models than GLM or GAM. VCM in particular gave significantly reduced spatial autocorrelation in the model residuals. GWR showed that individual predictors became stationary at different spatial scales, indicating that distributions are influenced by ecological processes operating over multiple scales. VCM was able to predict occurrence accurately on independent data from the same geographical area as the training data but not beyond, whereas the GAM produced good results on all areas. Individual predictions from the local methods often differed substantially from the global models. For the species richness data, VCM and GWR produced far better predictions than ordinary regression. Our analyses suggest that modellers interpolating data to produce maps for practical actions (e.g. conservation) should consider local methods, whereas they should not be used for extrapolation to new areas. We argue that local methods are complementary to global methods, revealing details of habitat associations and data properties which global methods average out and miss.

Only some like it hot — quantifying the environmental niche of the loggerhead sea turtle

Abstract: Although the Atlantic waters of North America support hundreds of thousands of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), remarkably little is known regarding their migratory ecology and habitat use. We integrate satellite tracking with remotely sensed oceanographic data to uncover two different migratory strategies used by loggerhead turtles at the northern part of their range. Most turtles travelled from the nesting beach to forage at higher latitudes in summer, before migrating south to wintering grounds in the autumn. Others moved south after nesting to forage for up to 514 days and did not make an autumn migration. Both groups utilized warm waters at the very edge of the Gulf Stream during winter: for southerly turtles obviating seasonal migration, and for northerly turtles minimizing the distance, time and energy required to reach northern areas for subsequent foraging seasons, avoiding lethally cold winter temperatures in inshore waters at the same latitude, and reducing energy costs that would be incurred within the fast-flowing Gulf Stream. Females made long resting dives of up to 7 h 24 min, effectively hibernating during the colder months. Offshore federal waters of the USA constitute a more important habitat for both foraging and wintering turtles than previously appreciated. These areas are potential hotspots for interaction with fisheries and proposed US military training activities and should receive special monitoring efforts to fully assess the extent of overlap.

Home away from home - Objective mapping of high-risk source areas for plant introductions

Abstract: Prevention is the best way to slow the escalation of problems associated with biological invasions. Screening of potential introductions is widely applied for assessing the risk of species becoming invasive. Despite advances in the understanding of the determinants of invasiveness, screening still relies heavily on assessments of the potential of species to ‘fit in’ to the broad environmental conditions of a target region. Most screening systems ask whether species are native to, or are known to be naturalized or invasive in, regions with ‘similar’ climatic/environmental conditions to the target region. The level of similarity required to make the species a high-risk introduction is generally not specified. This paper describes a protocol for making such assessments more objective, using South Africa as a test case. Using nonparametric niche-based modelling (generalized additive model; GAM) calibrated on the current distribution of each South African biome, we mapped regions of the world that are climatically similar to South African biomes. Lists were produced of countries with the largest areas climatically similar to South Africa overall, and to each biome separately. Validation of the usefulness of the approach was sought by evaluating whether the main invasive plant species in South African biomes occur naturally, or have adventive ranges, in regions mapped as analogous to South African biomes. A very large part of the world is climatically similar to South Africa, with eight countries having larger areas of land classified as climatically similar to South African biomes than the total area of South Africa. Almost all the most prominent invasive species in South African biomes occur naturally or are invasive outside their natural range in areas with similar climates to those that occur in parts of South Africa. This confirms the value of objective climate matching in screening protocols. We examined climatic conditions for a representative sample of major invasive plants from other parts of the world. The analysis identified several species that are already invasive in regions that have matched climates in South Africa but that are not yet introduced or, if already present, have not yet invaded large areas. For example, the following known invasive species should be considered high-risk species in South African grasslands: Alliaria petiolata, Cytisus scoparius, Gleditsia triacanthos, Heracleum mantegazzianum, Hieracium pilosella, Juniperus communis, Pinus contorta, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, P. sylvestris, Prunus laurcerasus, and P. serotina. Objectively matched climatic regions are also useful as a first-cut assessment when evaluating species with no invasive history.

How well do we know the Antarctic marine fauna? A preliminary study of macroecological and biogeographical patterns in Southern Ocean gastropod and bivalve molluscs

Abstract: The aim of this study was to use data for gastropod and bivalve molluscs to determine whether the fauna of the Southern Ocean is sufficiently well known to establish robust biogeographical and macroecological patterns. We chose molluscs for this work because they have been collected by almost every biological expedition to Antarctica, and are relatively well known taxonomically. Sampling of the continental shelf fauna is reasonably full and extensive, although new species are still being described and there are significant gaps in sampling off Wilkes Land and in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas. Species richness was highest in those areas that have been subject to the most intense research activity and this pattern remained even after correction for sampling intensity. The low species richness of the Southern Ocean molluscan fauna compared with many tropical sites is confirmed, and is related principally to the absence of the large number of rare taxa that characterize some tropical assemblages. There is as yet no convincing evidence for a latitudinal cline in molluscan diversity within the Southern Ocean. Multivariate analyses defined biogeographical provinces very similar to those established previously, though they also identified a number of finer-scale sub-provinces including a small area of high diversity off Enderby Land. Most Southern Ocean gastropods and bivalves are rare, with limited distributions; relatively few taxa have circumpolar distributions.

Expansion pathways of the exotic common reed (Phragmites australis): a historical and genetic analysis

Abstract: Using 779 herbarium and modern specimens, we reconstructed the spread of the common reed (Phragmites australis) in Quebec, Canada, where large-scale invasion of this plant species has been reported since the 1960s. All specimens were genetically differentiated using molecular tools to identify the genotype (native or exotic). The exotic genotype (haplotype M) has been present in Quebec as early as 1916, but it was rare prior to the 1970s and was almost exclusively restricted to the shores of the St. Lawrence River. The exotic genotype spread inland only after the beginning of the 1970s. In less than 20 years, a complete shift occurred, from the dominance of native genotypes to the dominance of the exotic genotype. Today, more than 95% of common reed colonies found in Quebec are dominated by the haplotype M. It is especially abundant along roads, but colonies present in marshes are also dominated by the exotic genotype. This study provides evidence that, in Quebec, the development of the highway network in the 1960s and 1970s strongly contributed to the inland expansion of the exotic genotype. Moreover, it shows the usefulness of molecular techniques for reconstructing the spread of an invader. Without the use of molecular tools, the reconstruction of invasions of exotic taxa would be impossible because of the lack of clear phenotypic differences between genotypes.

Tracking biological invasions in space and time: elucidating the invasive history of the green alga Codium fragile using old DNA

Abstract: With the advent of ‘ancient DNA’ studies on preserved material of extant and extinct species, museums and herbaria now represent an important although still underutilized resource in molecular ecology. The ability to obtain sequence data from archived specimens can reveal the recent history of cryptic species and introductions. We have analysed extant and herbarium samples of the highly invasive green alga Codium fragile , many over 100 years old, to identify cryptic accessions of the invasive strain known as C. fragile ssp. tomentosoides , which can be identified by a unique haplotype. Molecular characterization of specimens previously identified as native in various regions shows that the invasive tomentosoides strain has been colonizing new habitats across the world for longer than records indicate, in some cases nearly 100 years before it was noticed. It can now be found in the ranges of all the other native haplotypes detected, several of which correspond to recognized subspecies. Within regions in the southern hemisphere there was a greater diversity of haplotypes than in the northern hemisphere, probably as a result of dispersal by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The findings of this study highlight the importance of herbaria in preserving contemporaneous records of invasions as they occur, especially when invasive taxa are cryptic.

Dealing with uncertain absences in habitat modelling: a case study of a rare ground-dwelling parrot

Abstract: In the development of a species distribution model based on regression techniques such as generalized linear or additive modelling (GLM/GAM), a basic assumption is that records of species presence and absence are real. However, a common concern in many studies examining species distributions is that absences cannot be inferred with certainty. This is particularly the case where the species is rare, difficult to detect and/or does not occupy all available habitat considered suitable. The western ground parrot (Pezoporus wallicus flaviventris) of southern Western Australia, Australia, is a case in point, as not only is it rare and difficult to detect, but it is also unlikely to occupy all available suitable habitat. A recent survey of ground parrots provided the opportunity to develop a predictive distribution model. As the data were susceptible to false absences, these were replaced with randomly selected ‘pseudo’ absences and modelled using GLM. As a comparison, presence-only information was modelled using a relatively new approach, MAXENT, a machine-learning technique that has been shown to perform comparatively well. The predictive performance of both models, as assessed by the receiver operating characteristic plot (ROC) was high (AUC > 0.8), with MAXENT performing only marginally better than the GLM. These approaches both indicated that the ground parrot prefers areas relatively high in altitude, distant from rivers, gently sloping to level habitat, with an intermediate cover of vegetation and where there is a mosaic of vegetation ages. In this case, the use of presence-only information resulted in the identification of important environmental attributes defining the occurrence of the ground parrot, but additional factors that account for the inability of the bird to occupy all suitable habitat should be a component of model refinement.

Invasive plants and their ecological strategies: prediction and explanation of woody plant invasion in New England

Abstract: Effective management of introduced species requires the early identification of species that pose a significant threat of becoming invasive. To better understand the invasive ecology of species in New England, USA, we compiled a character data set with which to compare non-native species that are known invaders to non-native species that are not currently known to be invasive. In contrast to previous biological trait-based models, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical analysis to identify sets of plant traits associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms (vines, shrubs, and trees). The resulting models identify a suite of ‘invasive traits’ highlighting the ecology associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms. The most effective predictors of invasiveness that emerged from our model were ‘invasive elsewhere’, ‘fast growth rate’, ‘native latitudinal range’, and ‘growth form’. The contrast among growth forms was pronounced. For example, ‘wind dispersal’ was positively correlated with invasiveness in trees, but negatively correlated in shrubs and vines. The predictive model was able to correctly classify invasive plants 67% of the time (22/33), and non-invasive plants 95% of the time (204/215). A number of potential future invasive species in New England that deserve management consideration were identified.

Altitudinal patterns of seed plant richness in the Gaoligong Mountains, south‐east Tibet, China

Abstract: Elevational patterns of species richness and their underlying mechanisms have long been a controversial issue in biodiversity and biogeographical research, and several hypotheses have been proposed in the past decades. Local and regional studies have suggested that area and geometric constraint are two of major factors affecting the elevational pattern of species richness. In this study, using data of seed plants and their distribution ranges and a Digital Elevation Model data set, we explored altitudinal patterns of seed plant richness and quantified the effects of area and the mid-domain effect (MDE) on the richness patterns in a high mountain area, Gaoligong Mountains (ranging from 215 m to 5791 m a.s.l.) located in south-eastern Tibet, China. The results showed that richness and density (richness/log-transformed area) of seed plants at species, genus, and family levels all showed hump-shaped patterns along the altitudinal gradient. The altitudinal changes in richness of species with three different range sizes ( 1500 m), species of different plant life-forms (trees, shrubs, and herbs), and endemic species further confirmed this finding. Analysis of Generalized Linear Model depicted that although the area of each elevational band was always in high correlation with the species richness, the MDE could explain 84.9%, 33.8%, 83.8%, and 84.5% of the total variation in richness for all species and the three species groups with different range sizes, respectively. This suggests that the MDE significantly influences the patterns of species richness and is likely be stronger for broad-ranged species than for narrow-ranged ones in the Gaoligong Mountains.

Changes of traditional agrarian landscapes and their conservation implications: a case study of butterflies in Romania

Abstract: Global biodiversity is decreasing as a result of human activities. In many parts of the world, this decrease is due to the destruction of natural habitats. The European perspective is different. Here, traditional agricultural landscapes developed into species-rich habitats. However, the European biodiversity heritage is strongly endangered. One of the countries where this biodiversity is best preserved is Romania. We analyse the possible changes in Romania's land-use patterns and their possible benefits and hazards with respect to biodiversity. As model group, we used butterflies, whose habitat requirements are well understood. We determined the ecological importance of different land-use types for the conservation of butterflies, underlining the special importance of Romania's semi-natural grasslands for nature conservation. We found that increasing modern agriculture and abandonment of less productive sites both affect biodiversity negatively - the former immediately and the latter after a lag phase of several years. These perspectives are discussed in the light of the integration of Romania into the European Union.

Responses of grassland specialist and generalist beetles to management and landscape complexity

Abstract: We tested the influence of grazing intensity and effect of landscape complexity on grassland specialist and generalist beetles of three beetle families, i.e. Carabidae, Chrysomelidae, and Curculionidae, on extensively and intensively grazed cattle pastures in three regions of the Hungarian Great Plain. In every region we investigated seven pairs of grazed grasslands. On each field, samples were taken along two 95-m-long transects; one transect at the edge and the other one 50 m away from the edge in the grassland interior (altogether 84 transects). Carabids (Carabidae) were sampled using funnel traps for three 2-week sampling periods during spring and early summer. Leaf-beetles (Chrysomelidae) and weevils (Curculionidae) were surveyed by sweep netting in May and June 2003. Analysing the grazing intensity and landscape complexity effects on generalist and specialist beetles with linear mixed models, grazing effect was detected only on specialist leaf-beetle species richness with more species in the extensively grazed sites. Landscape complexity had contrasting effects on specialist and generalist species. Habitat generalists were more and negatively affected by increasing grassland coverage (reduced heterogeneity) than specialists. At species level analyses on four species out of 21, landscape effects were shown, which suggested that landscape composition might have strong effects on the species composition of the beetle assemblages. Our results suggest that conservation of biodiversity in agricultural systems (such as in managed Central European grasslands) requires a landscape perspective besides investigating management effects.

Algal communities in human‐impacted stream ecosystems suffer beta‐diversity decline

Abstract: Human-mediated geomorphic degradation of streams and rivers is a serious environmental problem with negative effects on aquatic biota and social infrastructure. Billions of dollars are spent for stream restoration in the USA alone, but it is still unknown how algal diversity is affected by these efforts. In this investigation, we studied a geomorphically stable and heterogeneous reach and two degraded and homogeneous reaches of Batavia Kill, a highland stream in New York, USA. Spatial surveys of algae and geomorphic conditions were conducted in all three reaches for 2 years. After the first year of study, one of the two unstable reaches was subjected to a large-scale streambed restoration. Species-area relationships (SAR) were examined for the first time in local algal communities of stream periphyton. Alpha- and gamma-diversity, which represent the species richness at a sample and reach level, respectively, and cell density, were also explored. In all reaches, SAR were fitted with semi-log models, which revealed that the rate of increase of species richness with area, i.e. algal beta-diversity, was significantly higher in the geomorphically stable reach than in the two degraded reaches. Gamma-diversity followed the same trend, whereas alpha-diversity and cell density were significantly higher in the unstable reaches. Restoration significantly increased the heterogeneity of conditions, including depth and particle size. From all studied community descriptors, restoration had a benign influence on algal beta- and gamma-diversity; however, beta-diversity remained the highest in the stable reference reach and this difference was significant. Our results provide guidelines for the use of periphytic algae in future bioassessments of stream bank restoration. Community properties such as species richness and organismal density, which are common metrics of ecosystem health, may be inappropriate in stream restoration surveys; instead diversity measures, often overlooked in applied ecology, e.g. beta-diversity, should be given full consideration.