Showing papers in "Economics of Planning in 2019"

Human capital, financial sector development and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: This paper examines the role of financial development in the human capital-growth relationship. The core activity of this study involves the use of different measures of human capital (school enrolment and total factor productivity) in the examination of its impact on inclusive growth and interrogating how financial sector serves as catalyst in this process. We explore the system generalized method of moments estimation technique to examine this relationship in 19 sub-Saharan African countries between 1999 and 2014. The findings show indications of largely positive direct impact of both human capital and financial development on inclusive growth. The results also show that financial development promotes the extent to which human capital can facilitate inclusive growth, however the choice of measures of both human capital and financial development are important in examining their complemental influence on inclusive growth. Thus, enhancing the efficiency of the financial sector through reforms would have greater spillover effect on human capital development thereby promoting growth inclusiveness.

Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries

Abstract: As the linear analysis of the oil price-exchange rate nexus failed to provide conclusive results, asymmetry analysis and nonlinear models recently emerged as new direction in examining this relationship. As such, this paper investigates the asymmetric relationship between oil prices and exchange rates for selected ASEAN countries, from 1970:Q1 to 2016:Q4. This is done by employing the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) approach of cointegration developed by Shin et al. (in: Horrace, Sickles (eds) Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 2013). Furthermore, this paper pays attention to the importance of the presence of structural breaks in the data. The empirical results show long-run asymmetry for Indonesia and Malaysia only, when structural breaks are taken into consideration. The paper, additionally, examines the causality direction for the oil price-exchange rate nexus using the Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225–250, 1995) causality test. The findings show mixed results, since a bidirectional causality between oil price (increase and decrease) and exchange rate is found in some cases, but, a unidirectional causality running from oil price (either increase or decrease) to exchange rate, or running from exchange rate to oil price (either increase or decrease), is found in other cases.

Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) and tourism on per worker output over the period 1960–2016 by using an augmented Solow (Quart J Econ 70(1): 65–94, 1956) framework estimated through the autoregressive distributed lag procedure for cointegration (Pesaran et al. in J Appl Econ 16(3):289–326, 2001). The results show that mobile cellular subscriptions (measure of ICT pervasiveness) and visitor arrivals as a percent of workers (measure of tourism) are cointegrated and positive, however, only ICT is statistically significant in the long-run. The long-run elasticity coefficient of ICT and tourism is 0.03 and 0.05, respectively. We note a unidirectional causality from ICT to output per worker, from tourism to output per worker, from capital per worker to tourism, and from ICT to tourism. From the results, we emphasize that focusing on technology advancement and tourism expansion will provide the necessary support for economic growth in the country.

Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis

Abstract: This paper uses a structural vector autoregression generalized economic growth model augmented with a debt variable to characterize the dynamic impact of innovations to external public debt-to-GDP ratio on per capita GDP growth, investment, trade openness, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria over the period 1970–2014. Using Blanchard and Perotti (Q J Econ 177:1329–1368, 2002) identification techniques to arrive at economically interpretable variance decompositions and impulse response functions, the results show that external debt shocks have long-lived negative impacts on economic growth and investment, as consistent with the debt overhang hypothesis. Moreover, innovations to external debt were found to have short-lived positive impacts on inflation, negative impacts on trade openness, but insignificant effects on the exchange rate. The implication is that attainment of sustainable levels of economic growth and external debt is guardedly sketchy at the moment and could remain elusive if aggressive measures are not undertaken at reducing the debt burden, encouraging domestic savings vis-a-vis domestic investment, and channeling borrowed funds towards the provision of basic infrastructure and goods that would not inflate the economy or hamper external competitiveness but, rather increase the level of economic activities and improve the well-being of citizens.

Bankruptcy profile of the Islamic and conventional banks in Malaysia: a post-crisis period analysis

Abstract: This study identified that accounting for endogeneity in bankruptcy forecasting models have been widely over-sighted. This study used Altman’s bankruptcy forecasting model to examine bankruptcy rates of the Islamic and conventional banks in Malaysia. Data for this study were collected from the post-crisis period 2009–2013. The results showed that the Islamic banks in Malaysia were more bankrupt as compared to the conventional banks. Hence, the claim of Islamic banks is in the stark contrast to the phenomena of being more shock-resilient to the financial crisis due to their Shariah compliance. Furthermore, the results of multiple regression analysis indicated that profitability possesses the highest explanatory power in reducing bankruptcy. However, the statistical tests Wu-Hausman and Durbin-Score identified profitability as an endogenous variable in Altman’s model, which this study addressed with an instrumental variable. Thus, this study draws a conclusion that consideration of endogeneity in bankruptcy forecasting is essential, or else the results could be misleading. The results of the study lend credence to the researchers, policy-makers, and practitioners for accurate bankruptcy forecasting.

Effectiveness of legal institutions in stock market development in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: The law and finance theory posits that legal institutions are associated with stock market development. We examine the effectiveness of legal institutions in stock market development in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000–2014. Based on the two-stage least squares estimator, we find that the effectiveness of legal institutions does not promote stock market development in sub-Saharan Africa, after controlling for income, banking sector development, inflation, endowments, capital account liberalization, culture, and democracy. We provide empirical support for the law and finance theory by establishing that legal institutions explain cross-country differences in stock market development in sub-Saharan Africa.

Is there a J-curve effect in Tunisia’s bilateral trade with her partners? New evidence from asymmetry analysis

Abstract: Recently a new direction on the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance has emerged where the emphasis is on application of asymmetry analysis and nonlinear models. Whereas, the linear models have failed to provide strong support for the J-curve effect, the nonlinear models have proved to be fruitful. We add to this later literature by estimating bilateral trade balance models of Tunisia with her six large partners. The results reveal that exchange rate changes do have short-run asymmetric effects in all six models, short-run adjustment asymmetric effects in three models, and significant long-run asymmetric effects in three models.

The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments

Abstract: This paper examines the relative roles of region-specific and commodity-specific developments in the consumer price setting in Russia. For this purpose, we estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model using inflation rates across regions and sectors. We found little evidence of association between region-specific factors and inflation developments, although there are several regions (mostly located in the Far East and North Caucasus) where the idiosyncratic component may contribute substantially. Conversely, the role of cross-commodity relative price changes in inflation developments in Russia is substantial.

Health gap between developed and developing countries: Does globalization matter?

Abstract: Whilst there is a rich body of literature linking globalization with economic disparities between rich and poor nations, there is very little situated understanding of causal links, if any, between globalization and health gaps between nations. Set against this background, this paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating globalization as a channel of the health gap between countries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Results from a dynamic panel data analysis show that globalization has statistically insignificant impact on the health gap between the OECD and SSA countries. Rather, economic and demographic structures, measured by the age dependency ratio (% of working-age population) and GDP per capita growth emerged as the main determinants of the health gap between SSA and OECD countries. The paper draws out some policy implications which may usefully impact programmes aimed at checking health inequities between developing and developed countries.

Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach

Abstract: This paper aims at to investigate the existence of multiple bubbles and specific corresponding events in Pakistan Stock Exchange across different industrial sectors using Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller (GSADF) test of right-tailed ADF as proposed by Philips et al. (Int Econ Rev 56:1043–1078, 2015a, Int Econ Rev 56:1079–1134, 2015b) by using monthly data for the period of 2007–2016. Findings of study confirm the existence of multiple bubbles in KSE-100 Index along with different industrial sectors. Empirical results depict that Investments, Chemicals and Textile Spinning were the only few sectors where no stock price bubbles were identified. The present study is expected to be pioneer in its nature to apply GSADF for the identification of multiple stock bubbles in emerging stock market of Pakistan which can be further used for comparison of stock bubbles in other regional markets such as BRICS or SAARC regions in order to find out the similarities and dissimilarities in the events causing stock market bubbles.

Provincial public expenditure in China: a tale of pro-cyclicality

Abstract: This paper examines the cyclicality of provincial expenditure in China during the period 1978–2013. Using panel data for analysis, it assesses whether provincial expenditure has been pro-cyclical. Pro-cyclicality is found to be a regular feature of provincial fiscal policy. This pro-cyclicality occurs both in times of low and high growth rates and has markedly intensified since 1994 with the increased autonomy of provinces. The paper further finds that the pro-cyclicality bias is mitigated when financial constraints are relaxed, the remaining political life of the governor is long, government efficiency is strong, corruption incidence is low, and governments are large.

Education and democracy in the Arab world

Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between education and democracy with a focus on the recent political events of the Arab Spring. In this regard, we examine the effect of five different measures of education on democracy using a dynamic panel regression model for a sample of 15 Arab countries over the period 1990–2013. The obtained results indicate that education fosters the emergence of democracy. Our findings are robust with respect to various determinants of democracy and to the choice of the sample period, suggesting that increasing education expenditure and improving educational access and equality are key policy priorities to promote the onset of democracy.

Human versus physical capital: issues of accumulation, interaction and endogeneity

Abstract: The human capital and physical capital are inextricably linked. Increase in the physical capital is assumed to affect the stock of human capital and vice versa. This paper examines the impact of increase in human capital on accumulation of physical capital and vice versa for a panel of 237 countries during the period 1971–2015. We also analyzed the interaction between these two types of capitals after disaggregating the countries by their income level. We used 3SLS and fixed effects estimation methods to obtain consistent and unbiased results in the presence of endogeneity. We found that investment in physical capital positively affects accumulation of human capital, but the impact of human capital investment on physical capital accumulation is not uniform. The impact of additional factors such as democracy, trade openness and ethnic fractionalization on human and physical capital is moderated by level of economic development of the countries. Results suggest that in order to accumulate physical capital subject to the resource constraints, low income countries must focus largely on primary education while high income countries should invest in secondary and more importantly in tertiary levels of education.

Stock market behavior of pharmaceutical industry in Iran and macroeconomic factors

Abstract: This paper is the first attempt to evaluate the behavior of Iran’s pharmaceutical industry in light of challenges and variations. The pharmaceutical industry can be examined from two dimensions, namely, supply and demand. With respect to the demand side, the aging population, growing urbanization, and people’s changing preferences have been identified as the major issues shaping this demand in Iran in recent years. Regarding the supply as the main focus of this paper, we examine the effect of the most important macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate of health care, oil price shocks and money growth in the pharmaceutical industry. We investigate the influencing factors through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis by collecting monthly data from 2005:1 to 2016:3. The results of this study demonstrate that pharmaceutical price has increased recently, and widespread changes have occurred in the Iranian’s pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, our findings indicate that the money growth and inflation rate of health care are the most influential factors in the pharmaceutical industry in Iran, during the period of study.

Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence

Abstract: Inflation targeting (IT) has been popular in emerging economies despite its early adoption in advanced countries. This paper seeks to find out whether the presence of the IT regime for the Asian countries enhance credibility of the central banks. The study makes use of two episode methods in the calculation of sacrifice ratio for the period 1970–2014 for 13 Asian economies. Empirical findings based on annual data suggest that an IT regime indeed enhances credibility of the central banks. The low sacrifice ratio in IT countries is explained by the implementation of IT regime. The IT policy has potential to reduce sacrifice ratios by 3.7–5.7 points. Among other determinants initial inflation is found to be significant in Asian economies. However, the speed of disinflation remains insignificant irrespective of the method used in the analysis. These findings do not support the idea that IT and speed can be used alternatively as credible monetary policy.

Capital structure and oligarch ownership

Abstract: This study examines the effects of oligarch ownership on corporate capital structures. Using panel data from Ukraine, I find that oligarch–owned companies employ significantly more debt and liabilities than their peers. However, there is no direct relation between oligarch ownership and target capital structure. Whereas the determinants of target leverage are similar across all owners, differences in firm characteristics also have a fairly small effect. I show that larger leverage is due to better access to debt, which results in lower rebalancing costs and faster restructurings of oligarch–owned companies. The findings clearly suggest that oligarchs benefit from the accumulated advantages.

Heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC), debt relief, economic stability and economic growth in Africa

Abstract: Stabilization seeks to achieve internal and external equilibrium that is, to control the demand side of the economy, with the purpose of reducing size of government, inflation and quickly achieving a sustainable balance of payment position. In this paper, I investigated the impacts of HIPC initiative and debt relief on economic growth and economic stability in Africa. I also identify the determinants of economic performance using the World Bank data for the period 1990–2015 with 5-year panels. The results show that this initiative causes economic instability in Africa. The results also indicate that the long run effect of debt relief on economic growth is positive but in the short run debt relief has no significant effect on GDP per capita growth. However, in both the short run and the long run, debt relief reduces external balance on goods and services deficit and has no effect on inflation. The main determinants of economic performance in Africa are control of corruption, political stability, regulatory quality and education. In this perspective, governments of African countries should promote good governance, educate their population and revise trade agreements to provide insurance for economic growth and economic stability.

Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India

Abstract: The relationship between stock returns and inflation has been tested in relation to hedge ability of stocks against inflation The study covers a period of over five decades (1960–2014) and examines both pre- and post-structural economic reform experiences in India This empirical analysis exploits the techniques of both Discrete and Continuous wavelet transforms In the methodological framework of Wavelets, first it analyses the individual volatility characteristics of stock returns and inflation using wavelet power spectra, followed by their relationship at different time horizons The empirical evidence suggests the two variables to be independent across time horizons lending support to stocks as instrument of hedge against inflation The results are robust to techniques and sub-samples, as well

International reserves, external debt maturity and exchange rate volatility in Ghana

Abstract: This study investigates the effect of build-up of international reserves on external debt maturity structure and exchange rate volatility in Ghana. It tests the hypotheses that the build-up of international reserves changes the maturity structure of external debt towards more long term obligation and strengthens stability in exchange rate. It also tests the hypothesis that build-up of international reserves and higher shares of long term external debt interact with each other to reinforce stability in exchange rate. An ARDL model was used to analyze data obtained from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and Bank of Ghana databases. The study establishes that the build-up of international reserves reduces exchange rate volatility and also interacts with higher shares of long term external debt to reinforce stability in exchange rate.

Asymmetric dynamics in the social contributions and social benefits nexus in Greece

Abstract: This paper studies the existence of asymmetries and the presence of a causal relationship between social benefits and social contributions in Greece over the period 1999Q1–2016Q4 using threshold cointegration estimation techniques (TAR and MTAR models) and asymmetric error-correction model estimation. In doing so the study applies conventional and quantile unit root tests to examine the order of integration of the variables. The empirical results support the hypothesis that social benefits and social contributions are cointegrated with threshold adjustment and the adjustment process is asymmetric both in the short and long run. ECM model estimation indicates that the response of the government to a worsening budget is significantly larger than to an improving budget, and the adjustment path towards momentum equilibrium takes place through social contributions, when the budget is in its negative phase (below threshold). Granger causality tests and distributed lag asymmetry tests indicate that social benefits represent an exogenous variable.