Showing papers in "Futures in 2006"

TL;DR: The applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge in order to develop and use scenarios is discussed.

TL;DR: The authors survey the theoretical literature and identify key characteristics used by authors in the field to distinguish transdisciplinarity from related research approaches, such as problem focus, evolving methodology and collaboration.

TL;DR: It is argued that, in order to understand the sources of and the solutions to modern problems, linear and mechanistic thinking must give way to non-linear and organic thinking, more commonly referred to as systems thinking, which operates in a whole-system fashion.

TL;DR: In this paper, a methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine spatial information on various biophysical, demographic and infrastructural factors in the Brazilian Amazon with satellite data on deforestation to evaluate the relative importance of each factor to deforestation in the region.

TL;DR: This paper conducted an ethnographic research at the Netherlands Institute for Spatial Research (RPB) and followed professional futurists constructing and applying scenario axes in their scenario projects, finding that scenario axes do not function as a unifying structure fostering alignment of different perspectives in the way that scenario theorists and practitioners often suggest.

TL;DR: The paper contributes to the development of a functional methodology of transition support, providing initial guidelines for answering the question of which method is appropriate for what type and phase of a transition process.

TL;DR: In this article, a series of stakeholder workshops were held in the Guadalentin (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) watersheds to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions.

TL;DR: This paper presents a construction for information filters in the strategy process and proves that the nature of objectives and the method used in environment scanning have a major impact on the outcome.

TL;DR: In this article, a set of three existing European scenarios were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the phenomena of nanotechnology and take some tentative steps towards defining new regulatory frontiers within which this technology may operate, and conclude that there is an emerging regulatory gap between the exciting commercial advances being made in this sector and the community's expectations for regulatory safeguards and protections.

TL;DR: Anticipatory action learning (AAL) as discussed by the authors draws from action learning/research traditions and futures studies to develop a unique style of questioning the future with intent to transform organization and society.

TL;DR: The Gabonese government is eager to consider alternative strategies to augment economic development, including promotion of an ecotourism industry as mentioned in this paper, which is evidenced by the government's recent designation of 13 new national parks that comprise over a tenth of the country's land area.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors report the results of a web-based survey concerning how people think about the future and conclude that individuals' considerations of the future are highly influenced by their identities and worldviews.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the process, participation and products of scenario planning in light of conceptual understandings of trust, and highlight that scenarios have value inscriptions and varying degrees of normatively which are indebted to the particularities of their production.

TL;DR: The authors traces the development of futures studies from the Second World War and considers its philosophical basis, concluding that future thinking is seen as a learning process, and that future thinkers have special responsibilities as they are part of the world they describe.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use evolutionary thinking for an analysis of economic development, and conclude that the gap between economic development strategies and their poor implementation cannot simply be removed by creating better-intended strategies, tools or institutions.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight and discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the different processes through which a high-performing new product design consultancy probes into the future aiming to identify possible avenues for product development and potentially define trends in multiple industries.

TL;DR: In this article, the Dimensions of the Learning Organization Questionnaire is used to measure participant perceptions of the learning organization characteristics pre- and post-scenario planning intervention, and results are discussed, limitations are identified and clarified, and conclusions are drawn with speculations and refinements for future research.

TL;DR: In this paper, a multilevel model characterising emergent structures within the entrepreneurial domain is presented as an extension of existing complexity theory, with entrepreneurship characterised as the practice of foresight relating to that structure.

TL;DR: For example, the authors provides a theoretical framework for situating the emergence of new technology-intensive modes of environmental reform such as industrial ecology, environmentally conscious manufacturing, and ecological design, which seek to exploit opportunities for aggressive innovation to achieve rigorous improvements in the environmental performance of industrial processes and consumer goods.

TL;DR: In this paper, a participatory method of scenario development, based on action research, using cycles within cycles, thus allowing multiple opportunities for reflection and reperception, was developed to enable participants in futures work to expand their images of future.

TL;DR: A conceptual framework based on the dynamics of strategic paradigms is proposed and Electricite de France 2025 scenarios longitudinal case study is discussed in the context of the diffusion process of the French so called prospective approach to show interests and traps of scenario planning to manage paradigm shifts.

TL;DR: It is shown that inter-organisational fragmentation may be attenuated by the application of scenario method-which acts to enhance inter- Organisational foresight, by promoting a non-adversarial, strategic conversation that can enable new and creative insights to be gained across the participant agencies.

TL;DR: In this article, the concept of dilemma is presented as a way to understand and analyse processes of sense-making and decision-making by contemporary institutions and people, and a definition is proposed that encompasses both the cognitive-emotional and the socio-cultural side of dilemma.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the question of whether the new technological paradigm based on information and communication technologies (ICTs) creates new windows of opportunity or further obstacles for catching up countries.

TL;DR: In this article, the confluence of action research and futures studies can be seen across a number of domains: political, organisational, grassroots, global and individual, and the underlying approach, the processes used, which are shared.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how organizations can see, notice and attend better to their business and competitive environments using analogies with human vision, and suggest serendipity as a possible approach, so as to ultimately help see with new eyes.