Showing papers in "International Journal of Biometeorology in 2006"

The influence of urban design on outdoor thermal comfort in the hot, humid city of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract: The outdoor environment is deteriorating in many tropical cities due to rapid urbanization. This leads to a number of problems related to health and well-being of humans and also negatively affects social and commercial outdoor activities. The creation of thermally comfortable microclimates in urban environments is therefore very important. This paper discusses the influence of street-canyon geometry on outdoor thermal comfort in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Five sites with different urban geometry, ground cover, and distance from the sea were studied during the warmest season. The environmental parameters affecting thermal comfort, viz. air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation, were measured, and the thermal comfort was estimated by calculating the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The thermal comfort is far above the assumed comfort zone due to the combination of intense solar radiation, high temperatures, and low wind speeds, especially on clear days. The worst conditions were found in wide streets with low-rise buildings and no shade trees. The most comfortable conditions were found in narrow streets with tall buildings, especially if shade trees were present, as well as in areas near the coast where the sea breeze had a positive effect. In order to improve the outdoor comfort in Colombo, it is suggested to allow a more compact urban form with deeper street canyons and to provide additional shade through the use of trees, covered walkways, pedestrian arcades, etc. The opening up of the city's coastal strip would allow the sea breeze to penetrate further into the city.

Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003

Abstract: A variety of research has linked extreme heat to heightened levels of daily mortality and, not surprisingly, heat waves both in 1998 and in 2003 all led to elevated mortality in Shanghai, China. While the heat waves in the two years were similar in meteorological character, elevated mortality was much more pronounced during the 1998 event, but it remains unclear why the human response was so varied. In order to explain the differences in human mortality between the two years’ heat waves, and to better understand how heat impacts human health, we examine a wide range of meteorological, pollution, and social variables in Shanghai during the summers (15 June to 15 September) of 1998 and 2003. Thus, the goal of this study is to determine what was responsible for the varying human health response during the two heat events. A multivariate analysis is used to investigate the relationships between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season, along with levels of air pollution. It was found that for heat waves in both summers, mortality was strongly associated with the duration of the heat wave. In addition, while slightly higher than average, the air pollution levels for the two heat waves were similar and cannot fully explain the observed differences in human mortality. Finally, since the meteorological conditions and pollution levels for the two heat waves were alike, we conclude that improvements in living conditions in Shanghai, such as increased use of air conditioning, larger living areas, and increased urban green space, along with higher levels of heat awareness and the implementation of a heat warning system, were responsible for the lower levels of human mortality in 2003 compared to 1998.

Towards numerical forecasting of long-range air transport of birch pollen: theoretical considerations and a feasibility study.

Abstract: This paper considers the feasibility of numerical simulation of large-scale atmospheric transport of allergenic pollen. It is shown that at least small grains, such as birch pollen, can stay in the air for a few days, which leads to a characteristic scale for their transport of approximately 10(3) km. The analytical consideration confirmed the applicability of existing dispersion models to the pollen transport task and provided some reference parameterizations of the key processes, including dry and wet deposition. The results were applied to the Finnish Emergency Dispersion Modelling System (SILAM), which was then used to analyze pollen transport to Finland during spring time in 2002-2004. Solutions of the inverse problems (source apportionment) showed that the main source areas, from which the birch flowering can affect Finnish territory, are the Baltic States, Russia, Germany, Poland, and Sweden-depending on the particular meteorological situation. Actual forecasting of pollen dispersion required a birch forest map of Europe and a unified European model for birch flowering, both of which were nonexistent before this study. A map was compiled from the national forest inventories of Western Europe and satellite images of broadleaf forests. The flowering model was based on the mean climatological dates for the onset of birch forests rather than conditions of any specific year. Utilization of probability forecasting somewhat alleviated the problem, but the development of a European-wide flowering model remains the main obstacle for real-time forecasting of large-scale pollen distribution.

Influences of culture and environmental attitude on thermal, emotional and perceptual evaluations of a public square.

Abstract: The main objective of the present quasi-experimental study was to examine the influence of culture (Swedish vs Japanese) and environmental attitude (urban vs open-air person) on participants' thermal, emotional and perceptual assessments of a square, within the PET (physiological equivalent temperature) comfortable interval of 18-23 degrees C. It was predicted that persons living in different cultures with different environmental attitudes would psychologically evaluate a square differently despite similar thermal conditions. Consistent with this prediction, Japanese participants estimated the current weather as warmer than did Swedish participants and, consistent with this, they felt less thermally comfortable on the site, although participants in both countries perceived similar comfortable thermal outdoor conditions according to the PET index. Compared to the Japanese, the Swedes estimated both the current weather and the site as windier and colder, indicating a consistency in weather assessment on calm-windy and warm-cold scales in participants in both cultures. Furthermore, Swedish participants felt more glad and calm on the site and, in line with their character (more glad than gloomy), they estimated the square as more beautiful and pleasant than did Japanese participants. All this indicates that thermal, emotional and perceptual assessments of a physical place may be intertwined with psychological schema-based and socio-cultural processes, rather than fixed by general thermal indices developed in line with physiological heat balance models. In consequence, this implies that thermal comfort indices may not be applicable in different cultural/climate zones without modifications, and that they may not be appropriate if we do not take into account the psychological processes involved in environmental assessment.

A time series analysis of the relationship of ambient temperature and common bacterial enteric infections in two Canadian provinces

Abstract: The incidence of enteric infections in the Canadian population varies seasonally, and may be expected to be change in response to global climate changes. To better understand any potential impact of warmer temperature on enteric infections in Canada, we investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly reports of confirmed cases of three pathogens in Canada: Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli and Campylobacter, between 1992 and 2000 in two Canadian provinces. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) to estimate the effect of seasonal adjustments on the estimated models. We found a strong non-linear association between ambient temperature and the occurrence of all three enteric pathogens in Alberta, Canada, and of Campylobacter in Newfoundland-Labrador. Threshold models were used to quantify the relationship of disease and temperature with thresholds chosen from 0 to -10 degrees C depending on the pathogen modeled. For Alberta, the log relative risk of Salmonella weekly case counts increased by 1.2%, Campylobacter weekly case counts increased by 2.2%, and E. coli weekly case counts increased by 6.0% for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature. For Newfoundland-Labrador the log relative risk increased by 4.5% for Campylobacter for every degree increase in weekly mean temperature.

France's heat health watch warning system.

Abstract: In 2003, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in France to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. The system was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in fourteen pilot cities. Several meteorological indicators were tested in relation to levels of excess mortality. Computations of sensibility and specificity were used to choose the meteorological indicators and the cut-offs. An indicator that mixes minimum and maximum temperatures was chosen. The cut-offs were set in order to anticipate events resulting in an excess mortality above 100% in the smallest cities and above 50% in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Lille. The system was extended nationwide using the 98th percentile of the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures. A national action plan was set up, using this watch warning system. It was activated on 1st June 2004 on a national scale. The system implies a close cooperation between the French Weather Bureau (Meteo France), the National Institute of Health Surveillance (InVS) and the Ministry of Health. The system is supported by a panel of preventive actions, to prevent the sanitary impact of heat waves.

The effects of solar radiation on thermal comfort.

Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between simulated solar radiation and thermal comfort. Three studies investigated the effects of (1) the intensity of direct simulated solar radiation, (2) spectral content of simulated solar radiation and (3) glazing type on human thermal sensation responses. Eight male subjects were exposed in each of the three studies. In Study 1, subjects were exposed to four levels of simulated solar radiation: 0, 200, 400 and 600 Wm−2. In Study 2, subjects were exposed to simulated solar radiation with four different spectral contents, each with a total intensity of 400 Wm−2 on the subject. In Study 3, subjects were exposed through glass to radiation caused by 1,000 Wm−2 of simulated solar radiation on the exterior surface of four different glazing types. The environment was otherwise thermally neutral where there was no direct radiation, predicted mean vote (PMV)=0±0.5, [International Standards Organisation (ISO) standard 7730]. Ratings of thermal sensation, comfort, stickiness and preference and measures of mean skin temperature (tsk) were taken. Increase in the total intensity of simulated solar radiation rather than the specific wavelength of the radiation is the critical factor affecting thermal comfort. Thermal sensation votes showed that there was a sensation scale increase of 1 scale unit for each increase of direct radiation of around 200 Wm−2. The specific spectral content of the radiation has no direct effect on thermal sensation. The results contribute to models for determining the effects of solar radiation on thermal comfort in vehicles, buildings and outdoors.

Temperature modifies the health effects of particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia

Abstract: A few epidemiological studies have examined whether there was an interactive effect between temperature and ambient particulate matter on cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality, but the results were inconsistent The present study used three time-series approaches to explore whether maximum temperature modified the impact of ambient particulate matter less than 10 microm in diameter (PM(10)) on daily respiratory hospital admissions, cardiovascular hospital admissions, respiratory emergency visits, cardiovascular emergency visits, non-external cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane between 1996 and 2001 The analytical approaches included a bivariate response surface model, a non-stratification parametric model and a stratification parametric model Results show that there existed a statistically significant interaction between PM(10) and temperature on most health outcomes at various lags PM(10) exhibited more adverse health effects on warm days than cold days The choice of the degree of freedom for smoothers to adjust for confounders and the selection of arbitrary cut-offs for temperature affected the interaction estimates to a certain extent, but did not change the overall conclusion The results imply that it is important to control and reduce the emission of air particles in Brisbane, particularly when temperature increases

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. in Worcester, United Kingdom, 1996-2005.

Abstract: Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m3) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.

Seasonality of weather and tree phenology in a tropical evergreen mountain rain forest

Abstract: Flowering and fruiting as phenological events of 12 tree species in an evergreen tropical mountain rain forest in southern Ecuador were examined over a period of 3-4 years. Leaf shedding of two species was observed for 12 months. Parallel to the phenological recordings, meteorological parameters were monitored in detail and related to the flowering and fruiting activity of the trees. In spite of the perhumid climate of that area, a high degree of intra- and inter-specific synchronisation of phenological traits was apparent. With the exception of one species that flowered more or less continuously, two groups of trees could be observed, one of which flowered during the less humid months (September to October) while the second group started to initiate flowers towards the end of that phase and flowered during the heavy rains (April to July). As reflected by correlation coefficients, the all-time series of meteorological parameters showed a distinct seasonality of 8-12 months, apparently following the quasi-periodic oscillation of precipitation and related cloudiness. As revealed by power spectrum analysis and Markov persistence, rainfall and minimum temperature appear to be the only parameters with a periodicity free of long-term variations. The phenological events of most of the plant species showed a similar periodicity of 8-12 months, which followed the annual oscillation of relatively less and more humid periods and thus was in phase or in counter-phase with the oscillations of the meteorological parameters. Periods of unusual cold or dryness, presumably resulting from underlying longer-term trends or oscillations (such as ENSO), affected the homogeneity of quasi-12-month flowering events, fruit maturation and also the production of germinable seeds. Some species show underlying quasi-2-year-oscillations, for example that synchronise with the development of air temperature; others reveal an underlying decrease or increase in flowering activity over the observation period, influenced for instance by solar irradiance. As Ecuador suffers the highest rate of deforestation in South America, there is an urgent need for indigenous plant material for reforestation. A detailed knowledge of the biology of reproduction in relation to governing external factors (mainly climate) is thus required.

The impact of the summer 2003 heat wave in Iberia: how should we measure it?

Abstract: We present a new approach to improve the reliability of quantifying the impact of a heat wave on mortality rates. We show, for the recent European summer 2003 heat wave, that the use of absolute maximum temperature values, or number of days above a given threshold, can be misleading. Here, we have assessed the impact of the heat wave on Iberian mortality by applying a four step procedure: (1) calculating, for each observatory, the local maximum temperature (T max) distributions, (2) calculating the corresponding 95th percentile values (T threshold), (3) locally defining extremely hot days (EHD) as those days on which the local threshold of the 95th percentile of the series is exceeded, and (4) calculating the total degrees-days (DD) of exceedance, by calculating the difference T max−T threshold and summing these values for all days above T threshold. We show that the relationship between summer mortality rates and the DD index is non-linear and can be described by a logarithmic function, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78, which explains 60.6% of the mortality variance (F value of 24.64, significant at P<0.0001). Using maximum temperatures, no significant relationship is found with mortality, whereas the EHD frequency shows a significant association with mortality, albeit weaker than that obtained with DD.

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

Abstract: We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992-1993 and 1997-1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.

Thermal sensation and thermophysiological responses to metabolic step-changes

Abstract: This study investigated the effect on thermal perception and thermophysiological variables of controlled metabolic excursions of various intensities and durations. Twenty-four subjects were alternately seated on a chair or exercised by walking on a treadmill at a temperature predicted to be neutral at sedentary activity. In a second experimental series, subjects alternated between rest and exercise as well as between exercise at different intensities at two temperature levels. Measurements comprised skin and oesophageal temperatures, heart rate and subjective responses. Thermal sensation started to rise or decline immediately (within 1 min) after a change of activity, which means that even moderate activity changes of short duration affect thermal perceptions of humans. After approximately 15–20 min under constant activity, subjective thermal responses approximated the steady-state response. The sensitivity of thermal sensation to changes in core temperature was higher for activity down-steps than for up-steps. A model was proposed that estimates transient thermal sensation after metabolic step-changes. Based on predictions by the model, weighting factors were suggested to estimate a representative average metabolic rate with varying activity levels, e.g. for the prediction of thermal sensation by steady-state comfort models. The activity during the most recent 5 min should be weighted 65%, during the prior 10–5 min 25% and during the prior 20–10 min 10%.

Phenophases alter the soil respiration–temperature relationship in an oak-dominated forest

Abstract: Soil respiration (SR) represents a major component of forest ecosystem respiration and is influenced seasonally by environmental factors such as temperature, soil moisture, root respiration, and litter fall. Changes in these environmental factors correspond with shifts in plant phenology. In this study, we examined the relationship between canopy phenophases (pre-growth, growth, pre-dormancy, and dormancy) and SR sensitivity to changes in soil temperature (TS). SR was measured 53 times over 550 days within an oak forest in northwest Ohio, USA. Annual estimates of SR were calculated with a Q10 model based on TS on a phenological (PT), or annual timescale (AT), or TS and soil volumetric water content (VWC) on a phenological (PTM) or annual (ATM) timescale. We found significant (p<0.01) difference in apparent Q10 from year 2004 (1.23) and year 2005 (2.76) during the growth phenophase. Accounting for moisture-sensitivity increased model performance compared to temperature-only models: the error was −17% for the ATM model and −6% for the PTM model. The annual models consistently underestimated SR in summer and overestimated it in winter. These biases were reduced by delineating SR by tree phenophases and accounting for variation in soil moisture. Even though the bias of annual models in winter SR was small in absolute scale, the relative error was about 91%, and may thus have significant implications for regional and continental C balance estimates.

Weather impacts on respiratory infections in Athens, Greece.

Abstract: In this study the contribution of meteorological parameters to the total variability of respiratory infections (RI) is analysed. For this purpose, data on the daily numbers of general practitioner (GP) consultations for RI during the year 2002 were used. This dataset has been compiled by the Local Health Service in the surroundings of Athens, Greece (Acharnes city). The meteorological data obtained by the Meteorological Station of the National Observatory of Athens comprise daily values of mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, air temperature range, relative humidity, absolute humidity, sunshine, surface atmospheric pressure, wind speed, as well as day-to-day changes of these parameters. Furthermore, the following biometeorological parameters and thermal indices were also evaluated: mean radiant temperature (T mrt), predicted mean vote (PMV), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and standard effective temperature (SET*) as well as their day-to-day changes. First, the relationship between every meteorological-biometeorological parameter and consultations for RI was examined by applying the Pearson Chi-Square Test (χ 2) to the data of the 25 compiled contingency tables. In the second stage, the application of generalised linear models (GLM) with Poisson distribution to the data revealed how much the weather variability leads to statistically important changes in consultations for RI. The results of this study contribute to the evidence that there is an association between weather conditions and the number of GP consultations for RI. More specifically, the influence of air temperature and absolute humidity on consultations on the same day is weaker than the lag effect (∼2 weeks) related to cold existence and absolute humidity, while a strong wind during the preceding 3 days drives a peak in GP consultations.

Inter-annual rainfall variations and suicide in New South Wales, Australia, 1964-2001.

Abstract: The suicide rate in New South Wales is shown to be related to annual precipitation, supporting a widespread and long-held assumption that drought in Australia increases the likelihood of suicide. The relationship, although statistically significant, is not especially strong and is confounded by strong, long-term variations in the suicide rate not related to precipitation variations. A decrease in precipitation of about 300 mm would lead to an increase in the suicide rate of approximately 8% of the long-term mean suicide rate.

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations.

Abstract: This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

Impact of extreme temperatures on daily mortality in Madrid (Spain) among the 45-64 age-group

Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality among persons aged 45–64 years. Daily mortality in Madrid was analysed by sex and cause, from January 1986 to December 1997. Quantitative analyses were performed using generalised additive models, with other covariables, such as influenza, air pollution and seasonality, included as controls. Our results showed that impact on mortality was limited for temperatures ranging from the 5th to the 95th percentiles, and increased sharply thereafter. During the summer period, the effect of heat was detected solely among males in the target age group, with an attributable risk (AR) of 13.3% for circulatory causes. Similarly, NO2 concentrations registered the main statistically significant associations in females, with an AR of 15% when circulatory causes were considered. During winter, the impact of cold was exclusively observed among females having an AR of 7.7%. The magnitude of the AR indicates that the impact of extreme temperature is by no means negligible.

A comparison of growing season indices for the Greater Baltic Area.

Abstract: Predictions of the effects of global warming suggest that climate change may have large impacts on ecosystems. The length of the growing season is predicted to increase in response to increasing global temperatures. The object of this study was to evaluate different indices used for calculating the thermal growing season for the Greater Baltic Area (GBA). We included established indices of growing season start, end and length, as well as new and modified indices. Based on the results, the GBA can be divided into a maritime western part and a more continental eastern part, with the western part reacting more sensitively to the use of different indices. The eastern part is more stable, but even here the index-to-index differences are large. It was found that including or excluding a frost criterion had a significant influence on the initiation of the growing season in the western, maritime, parts of the GBA. Frost has not the same importance for the end of the growing season. However, some end indices can result in a “never ending” growing season. When looking at twentieth century trends in growing season parameters, it was found that, when averaged over the whole GBA, there was little difference in trends depending on the indices used. The general mean trend in the GBA for the twentieth century discloses an earlier onset of c. 12 days, a delayed end of c. 8 days and consequently a lengthening of the growing season of about 20 days.

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming

Abstract: This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3°C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.

Factors affecting outdoor exposure in winter: population-based study

Abstract: The extent of outdoor exposure during winter and factors affecting it were examined in a cross-sectional population study in Finland. Men and women aged 25-74 years from the National FINRISK 2002 sub-study (n=6,591) were queried about their average weekly occupational, leisure-time and total cold exposure during the past winter. The effects of gender, age, area of residence, occupation, ambient temperature, self-rated health, physical activity and education on cold exposure were analysed. The self-reported median total cold exposure time was 7 h/week (8 h men, 6 h women),<1 h/week (2 h men, 0 h women) at work, 4 h/week (5 h men, 4 h women) during leisure time and 1 h/week (1 h men, 1.5 h women) while commuting to work. Factors associated with increased occupational cold exposure among men were: being employed in agriculture, forestry and industry/mining/construction or related occupations, being less educated and being aged 55-64 years. Factors associated with increased leisure-time cold exposure among men were: employment in industry/mining/construction or related occupations, being a pensioner or unemployed, reporting at least average health, being physically active and having college or vocational education. Among women, being a housewife, pensioner or unemployed and engaged in physical activity increased leisure-time cold exposure, and young women were more exposed than older ones. Self-rated health was positively associated with leisure time cold exposure in men and only to a minor extent in women. In conclusion, the subjects reported spending 4% of their total time under cold exposure, most of it (71%) during leisure time. Both occupational and leisure-time cold exposure is greater among men than women.

Growing seasons of Nordic mountain birch in northernmost Europe as indicated by long-term field studies and analyses of satellite images

Abstract: The phenophases first greening (bud burst) and yellowing of Nordic mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp.tortuosa, also called B. p. ssp. czerepanovii) were observed at three sites on the Kola Peninsula in northernmost Europe during the period 1964–2003, and at two sites in the trans-boundary Pasvik-Enare region during 1994–2003. The field observations were compared with satellite images based on the GIMMS-NDVI dataset covering 1982–2002 at the start and end of the growing season. A trend for a delay of first greening was observed at only one of the sites (Kandalaksha) over the 40 year period. This fits well with the delayed onset of the growing season for that site based on satellite images. No significant changes in time of greening at the other sites were found with either field observations or satellite analyses throughout the study period. These results differ from the earlier spring generally observed in other parts of Europe in recent decades. In the coldest regions of Europe, e.g. in northern high mountains and the northernmost continental areas, increased precipitation associated with the generally positive North Atlantic Oscillation in the last few decades has often fallen as snow. Increased snow may delay the time of onset of the growing season, although increased temperature generally causes earlier spring phenophases. Autumn yellowing of birch leaves tends towards an earlier date at all sites. Due to both later birch greening and earlier yellowing at the Kandalaksha site, the growing season there has also become significantly shorter during the years observed. The sites showing the most advanced yellowing in the field throughout the study period fit well with areas showing an earlier end of the growing season from satellite images covering 1982–2002. The earlier yellowing is highly correlated with a trend at the sites in autumn for earlier decreasing air temperature over the study period, indicating that this environmental factor is important also for autumn phenophases.

Phenological models for blooming of apple in a mountainous region

Abstract: Six phenological series were available for ‘Golden Delicious’ apple blooming at six sites in Trentino, an alpine fruit-growing region. Several models were tested to predict flowering dates, all involving a “chilling and forcing” approach. In many cases, application of the models to different climatic conditions results in low accuracy of prediction of flowering date. The aim of this work is to develop a model with more general validity, starting from the six available series, and to test it against five other phenological series outside the original area of model development. A modified version of the “Utah” model was the approach that performed best. In fact, an algorithm using “chill units” for rest completion and a thermal sum for growing-degree-hours (GDH), whose efficiency changes over time depending on the fraction of forcing attained, yielded a very good prediction of flowering. Results were good even if hourly temperatures were reconstructed from daily minimum and maximum values. Errors resulting from prediction of flowering data were relatively small, and root mean square errors were in the range of 1–6 days, being <2 days for the longest phenological series. In the most general form of the model, the summation of GDH required for flowering is not a fixed value, but a function of topoclimatic variables for a particular site: slope, aspect and spring mean temperature. This approach allows extension of application of the model to sites with different climatic features outside the test area.

Climate controls on valley fever incidence in Kern County, California

Abstract: Coccidiodomycosis (valley fever) is a systemic infection caused by inhalation of airborne spores from Coccidioides immitis, a soil-dwelling fungus found in the southwestern United States, parts of Mexico, and Central and South America. Dust storms help disperse C. immitis so risk factors for valley fever include conditions favorable for fungal growth (moist, warm soil) and for aeolian soil erosion (dry soil and strong winds). Here, we analyze and inter-compare the seasonal and inter-annual behavior of valley fever incidence and climate risk factors for the period 1980-2002 in Kern County, California, the US county with highest reported incidence. We find weak but statistically significant links between disease incidence and antecedent climate conditions. Precipitation anomalies 8 and 20 months antecedent explain only up to 4% of monthly variability in subsequent valley fever incidence during the 23 year period tested. This is consistent with previous studies suggesting that C. immitis tolerates hot, dry periods better than competing soil organisms and, as a result, thrives during wet periods following droughts. Furthermore, the relatively small correlation with climate suggests that the causes of valley fever in Kern County could be largely anthropogenic. Seasonal climate predictors of valley fever in Kern County are similar to, but much weaker than, those in Arizona, where previous studies find precipitation explains up to 75% of incidence. Causes for this discrepancy are not yet understood. Higher resolution temporal and spatial monitoring of soil conditions could improve our understanding of climatic antecedents of severe epidemics.

The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of noctuids and other moths migrating over southern Britain.

Abstract: Insects migrating at high altitude over southern Britain have been continuously monitored by automatically operating, vertical-looking radars over a period of several years. During some occasions in the summer months, the migrants were observed to form well-defined layer concentrations, typically at heights of 200–400 m, in the stable night-time atmosphere. Under these conditions, insects are likely to have control over their vertical movements and are selecting flight heights that are favourable for long-range migration. We therefore investigated the factors influencing the formation of these insect layers by comparing radar measurements of the vertical distribution of insect density with meteorological profiles generated by the UK Meteorological Office’s (UKMO) Unified Model (UM). Radar-derived measurements of mass and displacement speed, along with data from Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps, provided information on the identity of the migrants. We present here three case studies where noctuid and pyralid moths contributed substantially to the observed layers. The major meteorological factors influencing the layer concentrations appeared to be: (a) the altitude of the warmest air, (b) heights corresponding to temperature preferences or thresholds for sustained migration and, (c) on nights when air temperatures are relatively high, wind-speed maxima associated with the nocturnal jet. Back-trajectories indicated that layer duration may have been determined by the distance to the coast. Overall, the unique combination of meteorological data from the UM and insect data from entomological radar described here show considerable promise for systematic studies of high-altitude insect layering.

A 30-day-ahead forecast model for grass pollen in north London, United Kingdom

Abstract: A 30-day-ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen in north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21 May to 8 August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961 to 1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of 1 to 4; the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of 1 to 4, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002, respectively, when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Wind-chill-equivalent temperatures: regarding the impact due to the variability of the environmental convective heat transfer coefficient.

Abstract: The wind-chill index (WCI), developed in Antarctica in the 1940s and recently updated by the weather services in the USA and Canada, expresses the enhancement of heat loss in cold climates from exposed body parts, e.g., face, due to wind. The index provides a simple and practical means for assessing the thermal effects of wind on humans outdoors. It is also used for indicating weather conditions that may pose adverse risks of freezing at subfreezing environmental temperatures. Values of the WCI depend on a number of parameters, i.e, temperatures, physical properties of the air, wind speed, etc., and on insolation and evaporation. This paper focuses on the effects of various empirical correlations used in the literature for calculating the convective heat transfer coefficients between humans and their environment. Insolation and evaporation are not included in the presentation. Large differences in calculated values among these correlations are demonstrated and quantified. Steady-state wind-chill-equivalent temperatures (WCETs) are estimated by a simple, one-dimensional heat-conducting hollow-cylindrical model using these empirical correlations. Partial comparison of these values with the published “new” WCETs is presented. The variability of the estimated WCETs, due to different correlations employed to calculate them, is clearly demonstrated. The results of this study clearly suggest the need for establishing a “gold standard” for estimating convective heat exchange between exposed body elements and the cold and windy environment. This should be done prior to the introduction and adoption of further modifications to WCETs and indices. Correlations to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficients between exposed body parts of humans in windy and cold environments influence the WCETs and need to be standardized.

Trajectories associated to regional and extra-regional pollen transport in the southeast of Buenos Aires province, Mar del Plata (Argentina)

Abstract: Long range transport of airborne pollen has been seldom studied in South America. Backward trajectories of Celtis and Nothofagus pollen grains trapped over a meteorological station outside Mar del Plata City were calculated in one-hour steps using the regional hybrid model developed by the NOAA (HYSPLIT 4.5) and the data of the NCEP filed in the NOAA server. Results showed that the observed trajectories agree with the location of vegetation sources of the collected tree species. In the case of Celtis, the transport was associated to anticyclones located east of the city, generating winds with a N-NE component, which produce pollen cloud advection from the Celtis forests located some tens of kilometers to the N and NE of the city. The sources of Nothofagus pollen correspond to a narrow strip on the Andes slopes between 39° and 55°S, at least 1100 km to the SW of Mar del Plata. The transport was associated to eastward displacement of the troughs corresponding to the Westerlies circulation and the presence of an anticyclone system that brings back Nothofagus pollen towards Mar del Plata area.

Short-term effects of thermotherapy for spasticity on tibial nerve F-waves in post-stroke patients

Abstract: Thermotherapy is generally considered appropriate for post-stroke patients with spasticity, yet its acute antispastic effects have not been comprehensively investigated. F-wave parameters have been used to demonstrate changes in motor neuron excitability in spasticity and pharmacological antispastic therapy. The present study aimed to confirm the efficacy of thermotherapy for spasticity by evaluating alterations in F-wave parameters in ten male post-stroke patients with spastic hemiparesis (mean age: 49.0±15.0 years) and ten healthy male controls (mean age: 48.7±4.4 years). The subjects were immersed in water at 41°C for 10 min. Recordings were made over the abductor hallucis muscle, and antidromic stimulation was performed on the tibial nerve at the ankle. Twenty F-waves were recorded before, immediately after, and 30 min following thermotherapy for each subject. F-wave amplitude and F-wave/M-response ratio were determined. Changes in body temperature and surface-skin temperature were monitored simultaneously. The mean and maximum values of both F-wave parameters were higher on the affected side before thermotherapy. In the post-stroke patients, the mean and maximum values of both parameters were significantly reduced after thermotherapy (P<0.01). Hence, the antispastic effects of thermotherapy were indicated by decreased F-wave parameters. Body temperature was significantly increased both immediately after and 30 min after thermotherapy in all subjects. This appeared to play an important role in decreased spasticity. Surface-skin temperature increased immediately after thermotherapy in both groups and returned to baseline 30 min later. These findings demonstrate that thermotherapy is an effective nonpharmacological antispastic treatment that might facilitate stroke rehabilitation.

Influence of weather on emergency transport events coded as stroke: population-based study in Japan.

Abstract: Studying the relation between incidence of stroke and weather is difficult because it requires large-scale community-based data collection. Despite the lack of strong evidence that weather conditions influence stroke incidence, many clinicians feel that meteorological conditions influence the onset of stroke. This study examined whether emergency events related to stroke are influenced by meteorological factors and was based on computerized records of emergency medical transport services in a Japanese city during the period January 1992–December 2003. A total of 53,585 patients transported for an event coded as stroke were analyzed in relation to meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Poisson regression analysis was applied to clarify the influence of daily meteorological conditions on the daily incidence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of weather, defined as the combination of meteorological parameters, on the occurrence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke. Daily mean ambient temperature and daily mean relative humidity showed a statistically significant negative effect on the incidence of the emergency transport events for both men and women (P<0.001). Daily mean barometric pressure was not significantly related to these events. The occurrence of a holiday was negatively related to the incidence (P<0.001). Dry weather and cool weather were likely to shift the circadian curve of the incidence upward. Thus, occurrence of emergency transport due to events coded as stroke is likely to be associated with weather conditions.